Props YES! Props YES! Props YES!

This past Sunday marked the first Sunday that there wasn't football since early September.  I am still not ready to count the Pro-Bowl, however the new format was certainly an upgrade.  The Sunday between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl is usually reserved for home improvement projects.  This usually entails a trip to the Home Depot where we will buy some wallpaper, pick up some flooring, stuff like that.  Time permitting, the trip usually culminates with a stop by Bed, Bath, and Beyond.

Not this time though.  Thanks to my gracious wife, instead of raiding the shelves of Home Depot I was sitting in the Consol Energy Center ready to take in the 27th edition of WWE's Royal Rumble.  Anyone who watches wrestling knows that the Royal Rumble is right up there with Wrestlemania for best pay-per-view of the year.  Here were a few takeaways from the experience.

1.  The explosions / pyrotechnics are really really loud.  I don't know if it was because of where we were seated, but I had a mini-heart attack and hurt my neck when the first explosions went off.

2. Daniel Bryan is the best thing going in WWE right now.  He has uncovered the sure fire formula for success.  Aside from being the best in-ring entertainer in the business he has a fun chant.

As good as this YES! chant was there were probably literally 100+ failed YES! chants throughout the night that just never picked up steam.

3. Kofi Kingston does something crazy every year at the Royal Rumble.

4. Poor John Cena, his fan base now only consists of women, kids ranging in age from 7 to 17.

I actually like John Cena the person.  I was at the State College show on Friday night.  John Cena came out with the same energy for the 3500 fans and no TV cameras that he had for the 15,000 fans and pay-per-view-audience two nights later.  The fact that he has granted more Make-A-Wish foundation dreams than anyone says something about his character too.

5.  The crowd in Pittsburgh was great.  I didn't realize that chanting the word "YES!" with 15000 other people could be so fun, but it was.

Ok, that was probably a little more than what any 29 year old should be writing about wrestling so lets move on.

There are hundreds of ways to win or lose money on Super Bowl Sunday.  With so many options there has to be an edge somewhere.

Game Props
- Coin Toss - After running a few simulations here at my desk I am having a hard time uncovering anything.  As for the toss at the game variables such a wind / coin size / artificial landing service make this one nearly impossible to peg.

While there is no edge in the coin toss there might be something in the kickers.
- Steven Hauschka: 39/41: has kicked at least one FG of 30+ yards in 14/18 games.
- Matt Prater: 30/32: has kicked at least one FG of 30+ yards in 12/18 games.

Will both teams make a 33+ yard FG in the game? YES! +120
With LV giving + odds on this obviously means it won't be as easy as what I envision.  With two of the best kickers in the league I just need a drive to stall out somewhere before the 15 yard line and I will take my chances.

While sticking with the kickers here is a fun one.
Total yardage on all made FG's O/U 113.5 - OVER

As mentioned above both kickers in this game are very good.  Prater has a monster leg even when he is out of the thin air of mile high.  Manning is going to get his yards, but I see the Hawk D stiffening inside the 30 and forcing a few FG's.  If Prater could boom one from 50+ it would put the over well on its way to hitting.

Jersey # of first TD O/U 79 - OVER -125

Here is a list of who I think could possibly score a TD in this game.

UNDER 79.5

thenewstribune

Russell Wilson (1)

Percy Harvin (0)

Jermaine Kearse (5)

Marshawn Lynch (15)

Andre Caldwell (3)

Knowshon Moreno (14)

Montee Ball (4)

Total TD's (42)

OVER 79.5

Golden Tate (5)

zimbio

Zach Miller (5)

Doug Baldwin (5)

Luke Wilson (stretch) (1)

Julius Thomas (12)

Wes Welker (11)

Jacob Tamme (2)

Eric Decker (11)

Demaryius Thomas (16)

Total TD's (68)




Now that is how you sniff out an edge.  Although with the -125 juice it appears Vegas also spotted this edge.  Win or lose the numbers back this as a solid bet.


Seahawks Player Props

Russell Wilson 1st rushing attempt: 5.5 yards - OVER

sbnation

This isn't some stiff we are talking about here.  Russ has been making plays with his legs all year.
- 13/18 games has had a run of 10+ yards.
- 12/18 games average yard per carry  > 5.

gamdayr

Last week he made a few plays with his legs; not in the running game, but extending plays like the one above.  I have to believe that the Broncos have paid attention to this and put an emphasis on not coming off the receivers when he starts scrambling.  Using this school of thought it would only make sense to play over on his longest rush attempt. So...

topteamfantasy

Russell Wilson longest rush: 12.5 yards - OVER -120

Hopefully the defenders are sticking on the receivers long enough for Russ to get more than 12 yards down field. 

Here is a list of the mobile QB's that Denver faced this year and how they fared.
Pryor: 4 - 36 / long: 23
Vick: 8 - 41 / long: 13
Smith: 5 - 32 / long: 25
Smith: 4 - 46 / long: 26
Pryor: 9 - 49 / long: 11

Looking at the YPC and the long runs in each of those match ups has me feeling pretty good about any Russell Wilson rushing prop.

I am going to have a hard time taking over on any Marshawn Lynch prop.  With the tear he has been on the past two games his prop numbers are going to be slightly inflated across the board.  One area this can be taken advantage of his in the receiving game.

 Marshawn Lynch longest reception 8.5 yards: UNDER even

Simply going to play the odds on this one.  In only 7/18 games did he have a catch that went for longer than 8 yards.  In 3 of those 7 games his longest catch was 9 yards.  Basically a bad spot away from only hitting over 8.5 in < 1/4 of games played.
  
Marshawn Lynch total receiving yards 14.5: UNDER

Once again the math is right for this play.
-12/18 games Lynch was held under 14.5 receiving yards.
- Furthermore, he was held to 0 (3 times) or 1 reception in 8/18 games.  In the 5 games that he had only 1 catch it went for 5 yards or less.
- Something else that is encouraging is that the lone screen pass play ran vs SF back up Robert Turbin got the touch.

It doesn't really take much of an imagination to see how this one could blow up in my face.  This prop will be soiled if Denver were to jump out to a big lead.  The Bronco defense would go soft allowing for a few Wilson to Lynch check downs that would crush the yardage prop and probably the long too.

Robert Turbin total rushing rushing yards 11.5: UNDER
Going against the numbers on this one.  Turbin has gone over that mark in 12/18 games.  Those other 18 games weren't the Super Bowl.  In the biggest game of the year Seattle is going to ride the horse that carried them here.  We have already seen that in the divisional and conference championship games.
vs Saints: Lynch 28 / Turbin 3
vs 49ers: Lynch 22 / Turbin 2

I think Turbin gets a max of 2 carries in this game.  As long as he doesn't pop either one the under 11.5 will be safe.

There is call for concern being on either side of any of the Percy Harvin props.  As you are about to see I think he is way to good to let what I perceive as tremendous value slip through the cracks.

Percy Harvin total receptions 3.5: OVER -160

My first question is why are they doing this with the juice?  Why wouldn't they just move it up to 4 or 4.5 with standard juice??
Here is my theory.  As mentioned here Percy Harvin is one of the most likeable guys in the league.  Actually, I just assume that because all of my friends like him....so about 5 people like him.  I guess that sample size is a bit small for this theory.  Anyways, I feel like Vegas believes that people are going to take the OVER on his catches if they lay it anywhere from 3.5-5.  Even though the number is smaller than 4-5 the -160 juice might be enough to deter your average joe from playing it.  Or possibly, they are hoping that folks will see the +130 beside the UNDER and try for the better pay out.  If you don't bet or understand juice then forget that you even read those last few sentences.

The heavy juice is not going to be enough to scare me off.  I went through all of Harvin's game logs and this is what it looks like.
Games with 4 or more catches
2009: 10/17

bleacherreport

2010: 11/14
2011: 11/16
2012: 7/9
2013: 0/2
Grand Total: 39/58 - - 67%

A 67% success rate makes the -160 juice drinkable.

There is still some mystery involved in just exactly how Seattle is going to use Harvin.  If the game against the Saints is any indicator he will be a major part of the game plan.  Harvin was on the field for 20 of 34 snaps.  A chunk of those missed snaps came after taking this hit. Of the 20 snaps he was on the field he came up with 3 catches on 4 targets and 1 rush.

Percy Harvin total receiving yards 51.5: OVER

Way to much potential here to not play the over.  LV also sees the potential in Harvin by making him the 5th best odds to win SB MVP behind Manning, Wilson, Lynch, Moreno.

Jermaine Kearse first catch 11.5 yards: OVER even

This prop might as well read will Jermaine Kearse catch a pass.  For the season his average yards per reception was 21.6 yards.

emeraldcityswagger

In the 18 games played this year he has gone with out a catch 5 times.  In the other 13 games his average yards per reception was >11.5 in 10 of 13 games.  Harvin coming back probably means less snaps for him, but he has been a big play threat for Seattle all year and I expect them to give him a few shots down field in this one.




Will Richard Sherman intercept a pass: NO -250

Huge juice at -250, but the value on this is impossible to pass on.  Half of Sherman's 8 INT's this season came against the 2 guys who threw it to the other team more than anyone in the league (Eli Manning / Carson Palmer).  With all the pub Sherman's numbers are being billed to please the public eye.  I am going to the other way.

Broncos Player Props

After scanning through the Denver props and punching some numbers into a calculator it looks like the books are low-balling them across the board on their yardage totals - - minus Wes Welker.
Season Per Game Average/ / Yardage Prop in SB

mmqb.si / steve nehf

Manning: 339 / / 287.5
D. Thomas: 90 / / 75.5
Decker: 77 / / 64.5
Welker: 56 / / 57.5
J. Thomas: 59 / / 52.5
Moreno: 66 / / 59.5




I am well aware of the the fact that Seattle sports the number one defense, but I just find it odd that the books are giving them so much credit.  It is pretty much common knowledge that the casual bettor is looking for OVERS to play.  With that said for them to low-ball all the season averages being well aware that over action is going to come in on the juggernaut Broncos offense might be telling how this game plays out.

I will take the bait on one...

Demaryius Thomas total receiving yards 75.5: OVER -110

I can't pass on something that he achieved 67% of the time at -110 odds.  Also he is piping hot going for 113+ in 3 of his last 4 games.  I don't know if this is the Sherman factor kicking in, but as mentioned in a previous article Sherman doesn't travel with the other teams top dog.


Julius Thomas total receiving yards 52: UNDER -120

Seattle is as tough as they come vs the tight end.  Here are the game logs vs any relevant tight end they have faced this year.

sfexaminer

Greg Olsen: 5 - 56
Vernon Davis: 3 - 20
Owen Daniels: 6 - 72
Coby Fleener: 2 - 15
Delanie Walker: 4 - 29
Jared Cook: 3 - 31
Tim Wright: 4 - 58
Tony Gonzo: 3 - 39
Jimmy Graham: 3 - 42
Vernon Davis: 2 - 21
Jared Cook: 5 - 30
Jimmy Graham: 1 - 8
Vernon Davis: 2 - 16



Having faced Jimmy Graham twice and Vernon Davis 3 times is a pretty good test.  It's a test that they passed with flying colors allowing an average of 21 yards per game over those 5 contests.

Julius Thomas has had some big games, but as it turns out more often than not he has been held under the 52 yards the books have laid out for this game (10/16 games under 52 yards). 

Andre Caldwell total receiving yards 7.5: UNDER -110

For this to be accurate I am going to exclude the 3 games Wes Welker missed with injury.
- 15 games
- ZERO targets in 8/15
- No more than 2 targets in other 7 games
- More than 7 yards receiving in 5/15 games

The only thing that is a bit concerning here is the fact that in both playoff games so far he has caught a pass for 15 and 11 yards.  There is a better than 50% chance that he doesn't have a ball thrown his way though.

Super Bowl Specials

These are some long shot plays with some big pay-offs

Demaryius Thomas OVER 124.5 yards receiving + 450 

Jermaine Kearse OVER 49.5 yards receiving +500

Percy Harvin 2+ Touchdowns Scored +750


Super Bowl MVP

It has basically turned into the QB from the winning team taking this honor home.  Here is to hoping that trend is bucked this year.

Marshawn Lynch +450

Percy Harvin + 1800 

6 Point Teaser

Have never been a big fan of teasers but crossing some very key numbers make this a worth while play.
Seahawks +8.5 UNDER 54

I can't write this whole blog up and not have an actual play on the game.  I probably like about 75% of the props listed above more than I actually like the play on this game.  Everyone wants to make this game about the number 1 offense vs number 1 defense; however, I think the game is going to be won or loss on the flip sides of the ball.  I feel like Denver rolls out of bed regardless of who they are going to play and put up 20-27 points.  I think one of the story lines will be the Broncos settle for 3 points to many times.   I think the outcome of this game is going to be decided by the Seahawks offense vs Broncos defense - - SEA 24 DEN 23 - - Seahawks +2.5

Lets pretend I am rich.  Here is how I would spread it.

1. Both teams make a 33+ yard FG +120 YES - 500 to win 600

2. Total yardage on all made FG's 113.5 -115 OVER 500 to win 435

3. Jersey # of first Touchdown 79.5 -125 OVER 750 to win 600

4. Russell Wilson yards on first rushing attempt 5.5 -115 OVER 300 to win 260

5. Russell Wilson longest rush 12.5 -130 OVER 390 to win 300

6. Marshawn Lynch longest reception 8.5 - even UNDER 350 to win 350

7. Marshawn Lynch receiving yards 14.5 -115 UNDER 350 to win 305

8. Robert Turbin total rushing yards 11.5 -115 UNDER 575 to win 500

**prop of the night 9. Percy Harvin total receptions 3.5 -160 OVER 1600 to win 1000**

10. Percy Harvin total receiving yards 51.5 -115 690 to win 600

11. Jermaine Kearse first reception 11.5 - even 350 to win 350

12. Will Richard Sherman intercept a pass - NO -250 500 to win 200

13. Demaryius Thomas total receiving yards 75.5 -110 OVER 660 to win 600

14. Julius Thomas total receiving yards 52 -120 UNDER 480 to win 400

15. Andre Caldwell total receiving yards 7.5 -110 UNDER 440 to win 400

16. Demaryius Thomas OVER 124.5 receiving yards +450 150 to win 675

17. Jermaine Kearse OVER 49.5 receiving yards +500 100 to win 500

18. Percy Harvin to score 2+ touchdowns +750 100 to win 750

19. Marshawn Lynch MVP +450 130 to win 585

20. Percy Harvin MVP +1800 100 to win 1800

21. 6 point teaser -110 Seahawks +8.5 UNDER 54 660 to win 600

22. Game: Seahawks +2.5 even 750 to win 750


*I do not own or claim to own any of the photos or vidoes in this or any of my blog entries.*

"In my 24 years of life, I'm better at life than you" - Richard Sherman

Almost nailed this one.

Predicted Score: SEA 24 SF 16

Actual Score: SEA 23 SF 17

First, all anyone wants to talk about is Richard Sherman and I will offer up an opinion on him later.  However, for now I want to talk about what should have been focused on when the various networks were recapping this game.

• Marshawn Lynch - 1st running back to go over 100 yards rushing in a game vs SF all season long.  He scratched and clawed for each one of those 109 yards.
• How about that Seattle front 7 holding Frank Gore to 14 yards on 11 carries
• Dougie Baldwin had a nice game 6 - 106 and a huge kickoff return to answer a SF score.
• Let's give LB Malcom Smith some credit for hustling down field to actually catch that tipped INT. 
• Maybe stir the pot with some controversy?  How was the NaVorro Bowman play not reviewable.  What about a missed roughing the punter called that led to a SEA TD?

Steve DelVecchio - Larry Brown Sports

NaVorro Bowman clearly stripped and recovered the ball as well as clearly tore ligaments in his knee.  I really hope that the rules committee can bare to watch this gruesome injury enough times to realize that this sort of play needs to be reviewable starting next season.  How did none of the seven officials on the field see this? With in 10 seconds of that strip I had 3 texts saying saying 9'er ball / fumble or some combination of the two.  Being able to hold onto that ball all the way to the ground says something about Bowman's toughness.

For me the officiating was sketchy all game.  Aside from the above blown call there were two other calls that had me talking to the TV.

1.  2nd quarter SF 3-0.  They have a 3rd and goal from the 1 and Anthony Dixon goes air born and clearly lands short of the goal line.  Neither official signals and run towards the pile up.  One of the officials get to the pile and decide to signal TD at this point.  When does common sense kick in?  Was the officials line of thought really, "Hmmm...well I didn't see the ball cross the goal line, but now that I have taken 5 seconds to run in here I can see that he is in the end-zone....TOUCHDOWN!!!!

David Miniel - Fansided

2.  Roughing / Running into the kicker:  As explained by Mike Pereira on air, a 15 yard personal foul penalty should be called if contact is made with the punter's plant leg.  I am not a big fan of roughing the punter or even running into the punter penalties called because there is usually some Emmy Award acting that goes into it.  With my buck squarely behind the Seahawks I am glad this wasn't called roughing, however; by the letter of the law this should have been a 15 yard penalty.

Before doing some digging I did not realize just how rare a blocked punt is.

• 2013/14 Season # of punts: 2,509
• Number of blocked punts: 18
• 1:139 punts get blocked

 Teams aren't getting close enough to a block to even draw penalties (like above)

• Number of running into the punter called: 9
• Number of roughing the punter called: 3

Might be time to reinvent punt block schemes with that type of success rate / pressure.

Let's talk Sherman...

First, I think my analysis on Sherman from March 12th 2013 still holds true today.  On this day my money was behind Sherman so I laughed at the rant.  I think interviewing guys on the field right after a game is stupid.  These guys have been juiced up for the past 3-4 hours and then with in seconds of the final whistle they throw a microphone in their face and expect them to craft a well thought out response.  Every once in awhile your gonna get something like a Vontae a Jameis or even an old fashioned Ray-Ray for an answer.

The Sherman interview from this past weekend isn't even in my top 3 best pieces of video involving Richard Sherman.
#3. Interviewing fans on Bourbon Street during SB week last year.

                                                                         Bleacher Report

#2. Get'em Richard!

BSOTV

 #1. Imma' punch you in your damn face.

The #3 video is evidence that Sherman has no problem promoting himself.  Part of me thinks that bit was done just for fun and to get some laughs.  However, there is a bigger part of me that realizes Sherman is a smart guy who knows what publicity / controversy can do to support his already All Pro on-field play.  I think that mentality may have spurred on those post-game comments.  Honestly, in this day and age I don't care if he wants to say something controversial to get people talking about him. After all, like Drake says -- get it while your here boy / cause all that hype don't feel the same next year boy.
Clearly, it worked.  Guess who has the hottest jersey sales in the month of January?  Guess whose Twitter follower's jumped from 268,000 to 567,000?  It's Wednesday and networks are still talking Sherman.  His popularity is rising faster than the probability of a 1st and goal Manning audible to a pass play.  Regardless of a win or loss in the Super Bowl I think we are going to be seeing plenty of Sherman in the off-season.

"Well I'm the best corner in the game!"

Maybe a more appropriate statement would have been:

 "Well I am the best corner on this team, who just so happens to play behind a great front 7.  They puts tons of pressure on opposing QB's thus, forcing throws to come out quicker than what said QB would like.  Additionally, the pressure prevents complex route combinations to come to fruition, as well as a lack of time for double-moves.  Guess what though, if I would happen to gamble wrong on a double-move I have the best cover safety in the league in Earl Thomas over-the-top to bail me out.  In summation, we are strong at all 11 positions and great schemes are devised to fit the personnel on this defense."

Not as flashy, but probably more accurate.

Personally, when I think best CB in the league I am picturing a guy who waits for the offense to break huddle, and then lines up across from that teams best WR each and every play taking them out of the game (think Revis 2009).

I couldn't find any stats on % of time that Sherman lined up at left corner but that is pretty much where he is always at.  I had the 2nd half of the game from Sunday recorded so I  charted where Sherman lined up.  Really small sample size, exactly one half of football to be exact but here is how it broke out.

1st and 10 - 15 total plays

• vs Boldin (6)
• vs Crabtree (4) - - (tipped play)
• vs No WR (2)
• vs bunch set - zone (2)
• vs Patton (1)

3rd and 5+ - 5 total plays

• vs Boldin (2)
• vs Boldin in slot (2)
• vs Crabtree (1)

All other - 11 total plays

• vs Boldin (3)
• vs Crabtree (4)
• vs Patton (2)
• vs No WR- zone (2)

-27 total plays - Lined up at left corner on 25/27
- Lined up in slot on left side 2/27 - - both 3rd and 5+

I am not going to pretend to be Peyton Manning sitting here breaking down film.  It looked like they moved into a zone a lot more times then the 4 times listed above but it was hard to tell.  The above at least presents a picture of who he lined up across from pre-snap.  After the snap it was hard to tell, but it didn't look like a ton of man coverage.

The only play that bothered me was a 3rd and 2 from close to midfield with 1:09 left.  Crabtree, Boldin, and Vernon Davis all lined up on the left side (offensive side) and Patton alone on the right.  Sherman held true to his left side (defensive side) of the defense and matched up with rookie Quinton Patton who had amassed 3 catches for 34 yards--for the SEASON.  The play played with Kap finding Crabtree down the sideline for a big 19 yard gain.  All I'm saying is that I don't think Darelle Revis would have been lining up against Quinton Patton in this spot back in 2009.  Lets not get it twisted here. I think Sherman is a big physical corner who obviously has great ball skills, a knack for the big play, and a flair for the dramatic.  However, I think that this play set-up speaks volumes that the Seattle Defense believes more in a scheme over the talent of any one player.

Pat Down

Way off on this one.

Predicted Score: DEN 34 NE 30
Actual Score: DEN 26 NE 16

I really thought that this game would have 60+ points scored.  However, it doesn't take genius to figure out why it stayed under.

Here are the scoring drives that Peyton engineered.

Somewhere Ladarius Webb is smiling. (click)

10 plays / 73 yards / 4:07 (FG)

15 plays / 93 yards / 7:01 (TD) - - Longest (time) drive of season

8 plays / 63 yards / 2:29 (FG)

13 plays / 80 yards / 7:08 (TD) - - New longest drive of season

9 plays / 60 yards / 5:23 (FG)

6 plays / 39 yards / 2:26 (FG)

• Problem 1: Kicking 4 Fg's is sure fire way to send a game under especially when 3 of the 4 came from 35 yards or less.

• Problem 2: Two of the scoring scoring drives 7:01 and 7:08 accounted for just under 1 full quarter of the game. 

Once Talib went out with injury (which, by the way was an illegal pick) it was just too easy for Manning.

 I want more offensive pass interference called.  It's hard enough to play defense with the rules geared towards promoting offense.  This is something that could at least give the defense a fighting chance.  A good place to start would be crossing routes like above.  It does get called some, but I would like see a precedent set where if the offensive guy makes any contact with a defender on these types of plays it gets called every time.

I have never been a big Tom Brady fan.  A guy like that is easy to hate on.  Playing QB for a franchise that has won more games than anyone over the past decade is a start.  Having a net worth of $120 million is more fodder, but then he tops it off with marrying a super-model.  That google search proved to be a bit more enjoyable then trying to hunt up a bum picture used in the last entry.

I do have respect for Brady though.  Working with the cast of characters that he had to deal with this year could not have made his job easy.  Let's take a look at his main targets in Sunday's game.

No this is not a cover of "Metrosource"

What's Cutler's excuse?

Julian Edelman 5'10'' 198

Danny Amendola 5'11'' 195

Austin Collie 6'0'' 204

Just think if Brady had the weapons that the Bears do.  Probably a little easier throwing to 6'4'' 230 and 6'3'' 220.

 I do like Julian Edleman.  I think he is as tough as they come and could be a great role player on any team in the league.  However, having 3 guys that are all basically the same type of player is unnecessary.  Obviously, Bellicheck didn't plan for it to be this way.  As soon as the 6'6'' 260 Gronk went down for the season so did the Pats chances of winning a Super Bowl.  I could see New England making a run in free agency at a more prototypical type receiver.

I don't feel to bad for Patriot fans though.  Chalk up another 10+ win season and deep run into the playoffs. 

  

The NFL Dream

I have a pretty clear image in my head of what Roger Goodell looked like Sunday night after the completion of this weekends games.  The NFL could not have hand-drawn a better scenario.

EEEXXXXXXCCCELLEENNNNTTT

 After Kap and the 9'ers took care of Carolina, that locked in a Seahawks vs 49er's NFC Conference Championship game.  A certain prognosticator had this match up pegged back in March--check out the last sentence.  It really was not much of a ballsy prediction.  These were the best two teams in the NFC coming into the season.  SF vs SEA is quickly becoming one of the best rivalries in the NFL, and this conference championship game will only add to its allure.

....Goodell slips into his Peyton Manning jersey and roots harder for the Broncos than THIS GUY with a $20 bet on Denver -8.5 (not proud of some of the things I typed into google to find that)....

And he got his wish.  I can't say that I am upset that the stars have aligned for this match-up.  It's not everyday that you get to watch two first-ballot H.O.F quarterbacks battle it out to go to the Super Bowl.

Make that a Bronco Jersey on Manning and it would pass today

No, that is not a copy of this weeks Sports Illustrated.  That would be the cover from November 7th, 2005.  It really is quite remarkable how long these two have been 1 and 1-A for so long.  Also  I have to think its pretty rare that an SI cover could pop up 9 years later and it still be relevant.  Let's take a quick look at some other covers from 2005.

On to the picks....


Anytime you get the chance to bet on the most handsome and possibly the most intelligent man in the NFL you have to do it.....

Looks? CHECK Smarts? CHECK

Seahawks -3 vs 49ers

NFL Network had a replay of the week 14 SEA @ SF game.  Surprisingly, on a Thursday night I had nothing better to do so I figured I would watch it and see what I learned.
A few observations:
- SF moved ball well between 20's but bogged down big time in red zone - 4 FG's.


- Frank Gore had  17 for 110.  51 of those yards came on 1 run.  Take that run away and its 16 for 59. (week 2 @ SEA he had 9 for 16)
- With Crabtree back things opened up for Boldin (6 - 93 vs 1 - 7 week 2 )
- Kap didn't do much leg-work he moved to throw but never got loose - longest run 9 yards
- Patrick Willis got beat badly on 2 separate occasions by rookie tight end Luke Wilson

52 - lost in coverage

- SEA had no problem converting 3rd downs (41%)
- Kap and Wilson both threw 1 INT in the game.  Kap's was a crucial red zone turnover, while Wilson's was a launch down field with 17 seconds left in the game to try to get in FG range.  Kap also had about 2-3 other passes in the game that hit a Seattle defender first.  I trust RW more than Kap.

Jim Harbaugh is obviously a great coach. He is the first coach ever to take his team to 3 straight conference championship games ever.  However, there is something about him that bothers me.  His sideline demeanor resembles that of a college kid who just cashed in his Pell Grant and then decided to bet it on 1 game.

 I appreciate a show of emotion as much as anyone.  Although, when you are the head coach I believe you need to show some poise.  I am sure FOX will run some stupid slow motion replay of a Harbaugh meltdown at some point during the game.

Ok time for a prediction.  At the beginning of the year I had SEA winning the Super Bowl, I see no reason to back off that now.  Hopefully SEA starts fast and then the crowd takes over and Kap gives Sherman and the boys a few.
SEA 24
SF 16


Way to tired to get into anything in-depth for Brady v. Manning XV, but all I know is that you have 2 of the best QB's ever to play against what I would consider 2 middle of the road defenses.  If you think that the Pats will score 26+ points then take Pats + over 57 and you can do no worse than a split.  Also to me the idea of Tom Brady getting anything more than 3 points in a playoff game seems a bit silly.  It should be an entertaining game and hopefully a close finish.  Pats +5 over 57 for me.
NE 30
DEN 34

Good luck.

Wild Card Recap / Divisional Picks

Folks, I know I'm a bit tardy on a recap from the weekend.  I also know that the two people who read the preview were dying for the recap. I told my wife at dinner tonight it would be out soon and then called my brother to let him know as well.

Still juiced from the bullet-proof research on the monster day that Jamaal Charles was about to have I found myself unable to sleep.  I woke up very early that morning, it was 11:00 and Emily had prepared a nice brunch for me.  I then proceeded to partake in two fantasy playoff drafts.  The playoff draft is a completely different animal than a regular draft, but that is another story for another day.  I was happy with the teams I had assembled and actually began to get pumped for the playoffs.

NOOOOOOO!!!!!

.......Annnnnnnndddd 6 plays into the 2013-2014 postseason it was done.  I like to cry bad beat as much as the next guy, but this really was a tough one to take.

- In the 2 drafts I had earlier that day I was of course lucky enough to draw the 2nd and 3rd picks.  I used both of those picks on Charles.  I was happy at the time, but why couldn't my name have been drawn 4th or later...JC would have probably been off the board.

-I rarely bet on props.  Seeing Charles's rush yards for the game at O/U 93 was enough to get me to make my first propositional wager of the season.

- 329 - That is the number of times that JC handled the ball this year with out getting injured. So it figures his 3rd touch of the post season would be his last.

Ok, time to refocus.  I still have a nice bet on KC at +1.5 and a Chief win would give Charles a week to recover and get back out there for their next game. 31-10 at the half, the texts start rolling in about what a good call this was and how easy it was.  The beat-down ensued early in the 3rd with Luck's first pass being picked off and KC finding itself in the end zone a few plays later and now an almost lock-city 38-10 lead.

At this point according to ESPN's Stats and Information the Colts had exactly a 0.9% chance to win the game at this point.  The bottles were popped, and it was time to look ahead to the saints game

NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

After that play I quickly corked my  2 liter o' cola and resided to the fact that KC was done.  The only thing that kept me from literally losing my mind was that the +1.5 was still $.

As right as I was about the Saints going out on the road and getting the job done, I was that much wrong and them some about Andy Dalton getting his first playoff win.  Although, I shouldn't say I was surprised with the outcome after writing this gem on Dalton a month ago.  There is plenty of blame to go around in Cincinnati but anyone who has watched their fair share of Bengal ball knows where it should be placed.  As mentioned in the article above the Bengals are destined for mediocrity.  Although if they lose their defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer mediocre might be something to aim for.

If I actually believed it I would have included offensive coordinator Jay Gruden as a major loss also.  However, any coordinator who lets Dalton chuck it 37 times with a clear conscious is clearly not an asset to the team.
Here are some numbers that hopefully the next O-coordinator pays attention to.

He is getting what he deserves for being a bully as a kid

45 Pass Att. vs Steelers W 20-10
42 Pass Att. @ Browns L 17-6
40 Pass Att. @ Bills W 27-24
53 Pass Att. @ Miami L 22-20
51 Pass Att. @ Ravens L 20-17
44 Pass Att. @ Steelers L 30-20
51 Pass Att. vs Chargers L 27-10

That's 2-5 anytime Andy throws it more than 40 times.


The Pack and 9'ers game was pretty entertaining despite the elements.  Sunday we saw the Kaepernick that San Fran fans should hope to see more of.  When its win or go home Kap is going to use those legs a lot more than he did in the regular season.  Over the course of the 16 regular season games he only ran for more than 55 yards twice--on Sunday he had 98.

I hope this guy at least took Jordy out to dinner first.

On to the divisional round...

Seahawks -7.5 vs Saints
Going to wait to officially lock it in, but if I see this guy present in that always ruckus crowd I will be playing the Seahawks.  The weather forecast for this game does not line up well for the Saints (heavy rain 25-30mph wind).  I am not going to forget that it took New Orleans 46 seasons to win their first road playoff game. Asking them to do it back to back weeks is a tall order--especially in Seattle.  With the weather under 45 is also worth a look.  SEA 24 N.O 13

Patriots -7 vs Colts
Maybe I am just being a hater, but I am also being factual when I say that Alex Smith and the KC Chiefs hung 44 points on the Colts IN Indy.  T.Y Hilton is a nice role player, but last week he feasted on a banged up secondary on a fast track.  Outdoors he did not have a single game where he had more than 5 catches, and only 1 game in which he had more than 50 yards receiving.  I think Billy Ball will have a good game plan to keep him from going off.  I see this one as the biggest blow out of the weekend.  Pats -7 / over 51  NE 40 Indy 20


Bonus Bet: T.Y Hilton UNDER 5.5 catches / UNDER 75.5 yds.  There will obviously be an inflation on his numbers for this week based on last weeks performance.  However, the logic on this one is pretty simple.  He has yet to achieve either of those numbers in a game outdoors yet this year.

Panthers +1.5 vs 49ers
I am a big time believer in the Panthers defense. In week 10 these two got together for an old fashioned shoot-out that ended up 10-9.  In that game Carolina held the Niners to a grand total of 151 yards of offense.  Asking the defense to replicate a performance like that is hardly realistic, but the Panthers have played tough at home all year going 7-1 with their lone loss coming in week 1 vs Seattle in a very tight game.

At home the defense has been especially stingy allowing point totals of:

12, 0, 15, 10, 20, 6, 20, 13.  I don't see Kap making enough throws to extend drives in this one and the Carolina defense is fast enough to neutralize his legs.  At the end of the day I trust Cam to make a few more plays and lead them to the W. Would lean very hard to the under 41.5 in this one as well.  CAR 20 SF 16

Broncos -8.5 vs Chargers
Enough of the Charger love please.  Let's all take a trip back in the time machine to 2 weeks ago when everything broke just right for them and all that stood between them and a playoff berth was Chase Daniel and a good portion of the KC second stringers.  In case you aren't a Steelers fan you might not remember how the game shook out but let's just say that the Chargers were very lucky to win.  This week they will face Peyton Manning, who unlike Andy Dalton will not be handing out candy like it was Halloween, and more importantly if interceptions were every referred to as candy.  The point is Manning > Dalton.  The Chargers can be frustrating.  It is very hard to get them off the field on offense.  They can go on some very time consuming possessions which is the exact recipe that we saw in week 15 to beat Denver.  I see the came playing out as Denver jumping ahead quick, which will get SD out of the run on 1st, run on 2nd, convert 3rd and 3 mentality.  No strong opinion on the total in this one but I definitely trust Manning to get this one done DEN 34 SD 17

Solid 6 point Teaser: Pats -1 / Broncos -2.5.

Good luck.

Wild Card Weekend

Happier when there are 16 games in an NFL weekend, but going to have to settle for 4 of them this weekend.  Should be some pretty good games with LV setting 3 of the 4 games at a FG or less point spread.

Chiefs @ Colts (-1.5)
 Well my prayers have been answered.  I have been licking my chops for this potential match up since I wrote about it in week 13.  Indy going into KC and laying a 23-7 beating in week 16 has given bookmakers no choice but to favor Indy at home for this match up.

So what wrong wrong week 16 for KC?

 TURNOVERS

 -  4 Turnovers (1 int  / 3 fumbles) - 3 fumbles is a very flukey stat. Sadly, they actually fumbled 6 times in that game but recovered 3 of them.

Turnover breakdown from other 15 games.
0 Turnovers: 8
1 Turnover:  5
2 Turnovers: 1
3 Turnovers: 1


In 13/16 games KC had 1 or less turnover, so it does not take a mathematician to answer the following question....

What is more likely to occur?
A. The Chiefs will have 1 or less turnover?
B. The Chiefs will have 2 or more turnovers?

TIME OF POSSESION

- KC held the ball for a whopping 22/60 minutes vs Indy in week 16.  In there other 15 games they won the time of possession battle (30+ minutes) in 10 of 15 games.

7 POINTS???

- The 7 points that KC scored in week 16 was their lowest point total of any week.  Their next lowest total for the year was 17.  I guess when you only have the ball for 22 minutes and turn it over 4 times it's going to be hard to get any points on board...also....



3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS

- Week 16 vs Indy the Chiefs converted on 3rd downs at a sickening 12% clip.
- The NFL average for 3rd down conversions is 38%
- KC came in below league average with a 35% conversion rate and something that actually does concern me -- a league worst 29.5% on the road.

While it won't come as any surprise if KC does struggle a bit on 3rd downs there is a remedy for success....

FEEEED 25!!!!

While the above stats are all eye-soars for KC backers the following will be the gleam that we will go after.

Please Andy...25 carries for 25

- In week 16 KC ran the ball 20 times for 155 yards - - That's 7.8 yards per carry.
- 7.8 yards per carry is a full 1.5 yards more than they ran for in any other game this season.
- Jamaal Charles week 16: 13 carries: 106 yards - - 8.1 yards per carry.

Indy Rush Defense
 - Indy gives up 125 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry both of which rank 26th in the league.

How has J.C. fared in previous match-ups vs Indy...
2010: 16 - 87 - 5.4 ypc
2012: 22 - 226 - 10.3 ypc
2013: 13 - 106 - 8.1 ypc

Here is what Indy will be dealing with.  There are a few runs from his 2012 carving in this package.

I can't envision any scenario that Charles doesn't have a monster game.  To top it all off the dome of Lucas Oil Stadium will offer one of the faster tracks in the league for him to get loose on.

So although KC struggles mightily on the road in 3rd down conversion if they hand it to JC on 1st and 2nd down I don't think they will have to worry about 3rd down.

I believe the Kool-Aid man will be on full parade tomorrow post game - - KC takes it down 28-20

Tired now so just some quick thoughts on the other 3 games.

Saints +2.5 @ Philly
- Philly is the hot team right now but keep in mind that they are 1-3 vs playoff teams with the lone win coming against an Aaron Rogerless Packers.
- Can't get the image of Matt Cassle torching the Eagles secondary for 48 points in a few weeks ago.
- Saints put the road demons to bed in this one....31-24

Bengals -7 vs Chargers
- Bengals undefeated at home and blowing teams out in the jungle.
- San Diego super efficient on offense and usually own time of possession.
- Andy Dalton is sure to do some things that will make Bengal fans very nervous but the defense will be there to bail him out.
- Marvin Lewis is 0-4 in his 4 career playoff games, this is the year he breaks the streak 30-13

49ers -3 @ Packers
- Weather calling for -50 wind-chill....and they wonder why they are having a hard time selling out this game.  I mean I like paying 300 bucks to sit in -50 degree weather as much as the next guy but come on.
- This brings me to a thought that I had earlier this year.  With the type of money that is tossed around in the NFL I think it should be mandated that all NFL teams have retractable roofs.  Playing in that kind of weather is just ridiculous.  The thought originally hit me after the Lions / Philly snow game

Unable to kick XP because of 4 inches of snow on the ground

Wind sucks too..

Fog Bowl - Not a good seat in the house

Maybe that is just my fantasy football mind coming out in that complaint.  I am sure for the casual fan something like that Detroit / Philly game was entertaining to watch....for a Matt Stafford / Calvin Johnson owner - -a nightmare.

As for the -50 degree SF / GB game I think this is the toughest one to pick a winner.  Once again weather brings in an unpredictability that I am just not a fan of.  There is no way to practice for this type of thing so I expect a low scoring tight game with the better defense coming out on top in the end...20-14

Should be a fun weekend...

Peyton Manning: Putting the Numbers Into Perspective

Peyton Manning went ahead and put together the greatest statistical season of any QB in NFL history.

A recap of the 2013 season for Manning.

Pass Attempts: 659
Pass Completions: 450
Completion Percentage: 68%
Yards: 5,477*
Touchdowns: 55*
Interceptions: 10
*NFL Records

Growing up Peyton had everyone watching and waiting to see if he would be as good as his old man.  Archie had a HOF worthy college career as well as the honor of being the 2nd overall pick in the 1971 draft.  I think its safe to say that Peyton has handled that pressure and even upstaged his dad by being the #1 pick in the draft 27 years later. 



Some guys handle it better than others.  Me for example, having a father who was enshrined into the FHOF put a tremendous burden on me at a young age.  Yea, I heard the whispers and knew the numbers....55...60...65 hours a week.  At the end of the day I knew I wasn't going to live up the lofty bar he had set--Hell, I couldn't even start a tractor.  I spent my early 2000's  carrying the label of the Ryan Leaf of farming.



As mentioned above Manning's 2013 will be talked about for years to come and might withstand the test of time as the greatest statistical season any QB will ever put up.  With all that said I have a problem with how these numbers came to be.

Why did Manning throw so much in the 4th quarter?
 
First off, Denver creamed teams this year with 6 of their 13 wins coming by 20+ points and 10/13 by double digits.  My question is how can the QB of a team who is usually up by a fairly comfortable margin in the 4th quarter end up leading the league in pass attempts?  The 659 passes he attempted this season not only led the league this year but was good enough for the 6th most in NFL history.  I would be willing to give him a pass here if he racked these numbers up in the first 3 quarters and then handed the ball off in the 4th and ran the clock out like any respectable team does when they are up by 14+ in the 4th quarter.  After some digging it turns out that the 138 passes that he attempted in the 4th quarter accounted for 21% of his total passes and only 7 QB's in the entire league threw more in the 4th than Manning.

  ----Typical Manning fashion on his record breaker, 4:34 left in the 4th QTR / 17 point game.----

How about a run inside the 10?

 When you throw 55 touchdowns there are obviously going to be some shorties mixed in there but Manning made a living off the short TD pass in 2013.
Total Touchdown Passes: 55
Touchdown passes of less than 10 yards: 27
Touchdown passes of less than 5 yards: 18

Peyton has no problem calling his own number when they get close.  This season Manning attempted 51 passes from inside the 10 yard line -- 30 of which came from inside the 5.  To put the in perspective Matthew Stafford ranked 4th with 25 passes attempted inside the 10, or in other-words 1/2 as many attempts as Manning.

Peyton Manning had more touchdowns passes (27) of less than 10 yards than Tom Brady had total TD passes (26).

Peyton Manning's (18) touchdown passes from 5 yards or less was the same number of total TD passes that brother Eli threw.

It's hard to argue with success.  Manning chucking the ball 42 times a game is their best bet to win so maybe I am just being a hater.

Now there is some controversy on if his yardage record will stand.  After watching the video I'm 99.9% sure that it is a lateral, which would give the record back to Brees.  This might be some karma coming back on Manning for all those runs that he checked out of when down inside the 5.

Being an Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas fantasy football owner this season made the excessive amount of throwing enjoyable for me.  However, if you were one of the players that had no piece of the Bronco fantasy cream pie than you probably didn't ask for a Peyton Manning jersey for Christmas and instead maybe this.