Mike the Rat

Not going to go into any length with the main topics that have taken over ESPN but just a quick offering on them.

- All you need to know about Mike Shanahan is that if you type on google "Mike Shanahan loo.... one of the first things to pop up is...looks like a rat.
Even with his rat like characteristics I think more is being made of this than what is actually going on.  The facts are that RG3 has been sacked 24 times in their last 5 games.  Everyone is saying how ridiculous of a move this is and how it makes zero sense.  Let's pretend that RG3 plays this week and suffers a season ending injury of any kind; an injury that eats into a good portion of his off-season.  Then its a conversation about why was Shanahan running him out there when there was major protection issues among other things.  It really is a no win situation for him at this point.

-All you need to know about Marc Trestman is that he attempted a 47 yard fg in overtime on SECOND DOWN.  I guess I understand his logic.  I mean after all Robbie Gould was basically automatic from that distance.  Over the last 5 years from 45-49 yards Gould was connecting at an INCREDIBLE rate of 65% (13-20).  Even if he makes the kick I still say its stupid to settle for a 47 yard fg.  For this reason alone I hope the Bears don't make the playoffs....

Wide Right - Might have been good from 3 yards closer.

....but now there is a new reason.  Maybe and actually probably more than likely it is just because I am a Josh McCown fantasy owner, but I am not a big fan of making the switch back to Cutler at this juncture.  Cases can be made for both guys, but at the end of the day pretty much all of the numbers point to McCown.  I know that he is a career back up and at 34 is not the future in Chicago, but I have a feeling the Bear faithful might be thinking what might have been.  Besides you need some fire power on offense when your defense is giving up 157 yards a game on the ground.  To put that in perspective of how bad that is the next worse team is 22 ypg better.

The Monte Kiffin Roast

Monte Kiffin - 292 years old

Older always isn't necessarily wiser.  As is the case with Monte Kiffin.
After doing a quick check on his age I noticed he was born on Feb 29th.  Being the noble man that Kiffin is he only counts the once every 4 years that his birthday lands on to his actual age.  Sure, it is easy to pile on a guy after allowing 45 points and 500 yards to Ivan Drago -- I mean Josh McCown in sub zero weather.  The facts are he hasn't really had any success since his hay-day with the Bucs back when he was young enough to see the field from the booth.  I guess I can't blame Jerry Jones for hiring him.  I mean take a good look at that face...how could you say no?

 When Josh McCown was warned at halftime that the offensive barrage his team was putting up could have negative effects on the ancient Kiffin's health his response was simple...

Week 13 Round Up

Another Sunday in the books.  After submerging myself in everything football for the past 12 hours I have a few things I want to get off my chest.

Random Thoughts

- Refs suck
- Andy Dalton won today, but will never win big
- I am glad Robbie Gold missed that 47 yard fg in overtime.  That is what Trestman gets for settling for that.
- Just think how happy the owner is who started the trio of Gordon / Jeffery / Decker
- Cam Newton is impossible to sack / stop at the goal line
- As predicted, Geno Smith is awful
- The Kool-Aid man (Andy Reid) handled the last 2:10 of that game very poorly.  How does your best player not get a single touch?
- The Colts don't impress me.  I am going to take a moment to pray daily that the Chiefs end up matched up with them Wild Card Weekend.  Ohhh I picture it already.  Colts 4th seed / Chiefs 5th seed.  Chiefs -3.5 @ Indy......all in.  Week 14 match up Colts @ Bengals will go a long way in deciding who is 3 and who is 4 seed.
- Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl. This isn't an overreaction the MNF beat down it was in my 10 predictions for 2013 and although many of those predictions are pretty awful looking this one is looking good (missed the losses, but was close on Rams / Texans.)  When the lights get bright in that stadium like they were tonight and early in the season vs SF they cannot be beat.
- The NFL helmet rule is stupid.  I get the safety aspect but the implementation is horrible.  The Bell play in the Steeler game at the goal line should have been a TD.  It really needs to be changed to a continuation of where the player lands if he is one his way to the ground.  I feel like I can be about as unbiased as possible when it came to that particular play as A. I bet on the Ravens and B. I do not own Bell in any leagues.

NFL Rules Committee: Please use this play as an example...

Selling 2 AFC Teams...

Sell: Indianapolis Colts -  I never thought I would say that a 51 year old WR is the difference between a team being good and average but I am going to say that is the case with the Reggie Wayne-less Indy Colts.  Since his injury:
W @ Texans 27-24
L vs Rams 8-38
W @ Titans 30-27
L vs Cardinals 11-40
W vs Titans 22-14
Nothing very impressive there.  Got blown out twice, beat Ryan Fitzpatrick twice, and got very lucky to beat a 2 win Texan's Team.

Sell: Cincinnati Bengals - They actually have the formula to win big by being able to run the ball, having AJ Green and playing tough defense.  Their run defense in the early part of the season was especially nasty, however; since the injury to the big stud Geno Atkins their front is not quite as formidable.  At the end of the day though if I have said it once I have said it 100 times this year.  Andy Dalton is terrible.  His stats make him look so much better than he actually is.  As an AJ Green owner since he has entered the league I have watched enough of Dalton to know what he really is.  After thinking about it for a minute the best description I can come up with is "a poor mans Joe Flacco."

Late and behind..perfect location for an out route

Doin work on the move outside the pocket

Dalton has the Bengals in a really tough situation because he has won games and taken them to playoffs in 2 of 3 seasons.  I am by no means a talent evaluator but through 3 years I have not seen anything that makes me think he can be anything more than a solid qb who will make a few splash plays each week as well as a few terrible ones...see above.  It could be worse Bengal fans, getting to watch your team lose wild card weekend is 1 more game than fans of 20 other teams get to watch.  Before I completely bury him I do want to leave myself an out just in case "The Poor Mans Joe Flacco" falls on a horse shoe in January -- after all Joe Flacco did win a Super Bowl last year.

Been a minute...

Slacked off the first 12 weeks of the NFL season but I am throwing 4 fingers up and looking to finish the final "quarter" of the season strong.

The Suprises
KC Chiefs 9-2.  My read was good on this team, but I don't think anyone saw them sitting at 9-2 and tied for the division lead going down the final stretch. 

Is the Kool-Aid man aka Andy Reid really the difference? OH YEAAH

Steelers / Ravens 5-6.  About a month ago 5-6 seemed like a dream for Steelers fans after the awful start they had.  Their Thanksgiving day match up is basically going to be a playoff game with the winner still alive in the division / wildcard.

Texans / Falcons 2-9.  It would not have been far-fetched for this to be a potential Super Bowl match up in preseason predictions.  Instead of hoisting Lombardi one of these two might be making the first pick in the 2014 draft.
 I wouldn't mind seeing the Texans end up with the first pick to see if they would go Clowney.  They

need a franchise qb but the duo of Watt / Clowney up front would be hard to pass up.  On the bright side Gary Kubiak is still alive.  Weird time to have a mini-stroke with his team being up 21-3 going to half.  I am guessing while he was at the hospital the doctors did not let him watch the second half collapse or his heart might have went ahead and done the same.


The AFC in general is very weak.  Aside from the division leaders (Pats / Bengals / Colts / Broncos) the Chiefs are the only other team in the entire conference with a winning record.  Most notably, the AFC south is especially terrible.  The division leading Colts having a net points on the year of +3. Sadly for them the 2nd place Titans actually have the best net point total in +5 for the season.  To put that in perspective the best conference in football in my opinion is the NFC West.  Here is there net point difference for the year.
Seahawks +127
49ers +90
Cardinals +31
Rams +11

Ok that was a good warm up, will try to keep this thing rolling for the rest of the season.

What I learned week 1...

Can we get some rule changes please? With the current set-up its impossible to play pass defense.
-3 Qbs threw for 400+ yards in week1
-13 Qbs threw for 299+ yards in week 1
-More TD passes in week 1 then any other week in NFL history.

The outcome for RB's was not so good.
-2 RB's ran for more than 100+ yards
-1 RB has more than 25 carries

I learned that a team can score 3 seconds into a game.  Sadly, that was the high-point for the Steelers.







I re-learned that Blaine Gabbert is not an NFL QB.  He doesn't look the part in any aspect.  Here are some of the low-lights from his 26 career games played.

A weekly site at Jags games--Gabbert going turtle mode.

- completed less than 50% of his passes in 8/26 games
- has had a + TD/INT ratio in 9/26 games
- Here is my favorite one. In an era where passing the ball is easier than ever Blaine Gabbert has thrown for over 250 yards in only 2/26 games.

- Terrelle Pryor is going to make some plays this year.  As a Darren McFadden owner I watched just about every offensive play from that game.  I don't know if the Raiders will win very many games, but Pryor is going to be fun to watch.

If he goes all 16 I think we have a new record holder for qb rush yards

The guy taking that stiff arm isn't exactly weak either...



- Speaking of things that will be fun to watch.  I am jealous of all Lesean McCoy owners.  Not just McCoy but I think the Eagles will be playing in some of the most entertaining games this season.  If you play the OVER on all Eagle games this year you will make money.  Although it looks like Vegas is already adjusting with the total sitting at 55.5 this week.

-My SB pick the Seattle Seahawks looked pretty mediocre in week 1.  Although, it is expected for a west coast team coming east for a 1:00 kick to always look a little flat.  I think we will learn a lot in the SNF game this week when SF goes into Seattle for a huge early season game.

10 predictions for 2013

I did something like this a few years ago.  It was fun to read at the end of the year.

1.  Mike Vick  reemerges as a top 5 fantasy QB.  Sure he is a year older and a step slower but I really do believe this new offense will rejuvenate his career.  Keep in mind we are only 2 seasons removed from this gem.

2.  Larry Fitzgerald had exactly 0 catches over 40 yards last year, and only 2 catches over 30.  I find this hard to believe for one of the best jump ball guys of all time.  I think Carson gives Fitz a spark this year.  I am saying he triples his TD production this year which will get him to 12TDS.


3.  10th - Frank Gore (1212) / 3rd Marshawn Lynch (1590) / 2nd Alfred Morris (1610).  Quick what do all three of these runners have in common?................................That's right they played in spread offenses and all three of them finished in the top 10 in rushing yards--two of which finished in the top 3.  My bold prediction for this year is that none of these 3 RBs finish top 10 in rush yards this year.  I think the Redskins offense takes the biggest step back and "The Butler" rushes for 600 yards less than he did in 2012.

4.  Matt Stafford plays all 16 games.  He attempts 770 passes this season and ends the year with 5,555 yards to set the single season passing record.  The Lions win 6 games.

Good for you Matt.  Good for you.

5.  Quick---which NFL WR has had 1550+ receiving yard seasons 3 out of the past 5 years...if you said Andre Johnson then...

Lets not forgot that Andre has been known to get a little banged up.  My prediction that although he was drafted in the top 10 at his position in probably every league he will not finish in the top 20 at his position.  On the other hand....

6. I can't believe I didn't get my boy Cecil Shorts in any leagues.  The timing just never worked out.  Anyways I am saying Cecil finishes top 15 fantasy WR.

7.  I need a Dez Bryant prediction in here somewhere.  It has been no secret the tear he went on to finish the 2012 season.  Over his final 8 games he racked up 880 yards and 10 TD's.  I trust that you can multiply that X 2 to figure out what he could do over a full season.  20 TDs might be a bit much but I am going to say he leads the way in fantasy production for WR's in 2013.

8.  Enough WR predictions.  Let's talk about the bread and butter of fantasy football.  The running backs.  Anyone who knows anything about fantasy football knows that on average from year to year the top 10 Rb's from the previous year will have approximately 5 names repeat in the top 10 the following year.  This trend has been pretty consistent over the years.  So last years top 10.....
- Peterson
- Foster
- Dougie Martin
- Lynch
- Morris
- Rice
- Spiller
- Charles
- Ridley
- Gore
So when the smoke clears from this season you can bank on 5 of those names being back on the list again next year and the other 5 being somewhere outside the top 10.  Really a whole article could be dedicated to this sole prediction.
The 5 that stay...
Peterson
Foster
Lynch - I know I picked him to finish outside top 10 in rushing yards the he will score enough TD's to keep him top 10 total.
Spiller
Charles

The new blood
McCoy
Trent Richardson
Matt Forte
Steven Jackson
M.J.D

Ladies and Gentleman your top 10 rb's of 2013.


9.  I have seen quite a few Seahawk Superbowl predictions.  I hate to step right in line but I really do think its the best team that has the best home-field advantage in the league.  I think they win all their home-games this year.  They go 13-3 with losses coming against Houston upset special at the Rams and at SF in week 14.

10.  Lets get weird with the last one...Lets say Peyton Manning sets the all time record for TD passes in a single game with 7.  Guys with the last name Thomas will be on the business end of 4 of them / Wes Welker 2 of them and the brother of Reche "Headlights" Caldwell will score one as well.

2013 Barkman League Draft

Another one in the book, and another paper-champ to be crowned.

In a 10 team league more often than not your going to feel pretty good about your team coming out of the draft.  Anyone reading this that isn't in the draft should note that we re-draw every 2 rounds for picks.  Ex: Ryan had picks 10/11 for the redraw in round 3 he drew pick 1.

Will do a short team by team analysis...

Bob - Finishing last has its advantages.  That advantage for this year is being able to claim Adrian Peterson for your team.

Would ya Bob?

  The dynamic of this draft was that all owners had it in their minds they were waiting on QB.  Taking Rodgers at #20 overall on the surface seems about right but the rest of the owners were set on waiting as evidence by Brees going 2 rounds later.  By taking QB in rd 2 his WR corp suffered with Colston / Shorts / M. Austin leading the way.  I will give Cecil Shorts a ringing endorsement and predict that he will finish top 15 in fantasy production.  David Wilson was a guy I had my eye on if I could get him in the right spot.  Actually I think he was on most members radar after this run in preseason.

Best Pick: Cecil Shorts rd 6 - As mentioned above Shorts top 15.
Risk Pick: Montee Ball rd 5 - Could def pan out if he gets the work, but I like Moreno 4 rounds later.

Overall outlook:  A Peterson/Rodgers team should fair just fine.  I don't know if there is going to be enough production from the WR position on this team to make a big run.


Roy Munson - Mr. Munson did his homework and it showed early as he built a stable of studly Rb's in Martin / Bush / Murray.   I am not as high on Murray, through 2 NFL seasons he has yet to have a 900 yard season or a season with 5+ TD's.  With that said if he can stay healthy for full season he will produce numbers in that offense.  Having him as a RB3 is a nice luxury to have.  Lance Moore certainly isn't a flashy WR but if he can replicate  the 1000 / 6 he had last season that  will do more than satisfy the duties of a WR3.  Throw in a few fantasy HOF's in Manning and Gonzo and this team shaped up.

The best QB to ever play the game...

Best Pick: Mark Ingram rd 9 - Although I am not a big Ingram fan getting the starting running back in a top 5 offense that late is great value.
Risk Pick:  Mikel Leshoure - As good as Joique Bell looked in preseason I would have used him to cuff Bush.  On second thought, I am not going to tell you how to handcuff 'Bush.'

Overall outlook: Steady as they come QB and TE (check).  Stable full of RBs (check).  100 catch WR and 2 guys that play in arguably the 1st and 2nd best passing attacks (check).  If we see 2011 Jordy Nelson numbers Munson might be in for a payday.

Trent -  Winning the previous year + ending up with the 3rd overall pick + selecting a guy that has finished 1st, 2nd, and 4th in fantasy points in his 3 years in the league does not add up.  I can see how it happened this year though. 

Pairing A.J. Green and Fitzgerald up with Foster has this team looking as good as any through 3 picks.  Getting two stud WR's has a cost.  The cost in this case is two young unproven guys vying for the RB2 position.  Mike Vick has a high ceiling this year.  Philly ran an average of 75 plays per game in the preseason which is 11 more than the league average last year.  Sure he will get banged up this year but having Luck in your back pocket won't be much of a set back.

Best Pick: Ben Tate rd 8 - Foster owners must draft Tate in the off chance that Foster goes down.  Foster is obviously a good back but I don't really think there would be a huge drop off if Tate was the 24/7 man there.
Risk Pick: Lacy/Miller - While I do think at least one of these guys will pan out there is some risk involved with banking on a pair of guys with 51 career carries between them.

Overall outlook:  I know what I am getting out of Foster/Tate, AJ Green, and Fitz (now that he has a capable qb.)  The RB2 / Vick / Finley production will decide the fate of this team.

Crab - After not being able to crack the top 5 since entering the league Crabber has went ahead and finished 3rd (2011) and 2nd (2012).  He started his draft out with reacquiring the main piece of his 2012 run in Marshawn Lynch.  The 3rb/3wr method through 6 rounds is a nice way to lay a solid foundation. 

Another year that this dance will piss me off...

While I see low ceilings in the White/Cruz/Wayne trio I also see 3 of the most consistent producers that there is at the position.  Getting his boy Tom Brady in the 7th seems like a bit of a steal.  Pairing a QB/RB tandem together (Brady/Ridley) can have its pitfalls, but with as good as that offense can be I think there will be enough to go around.

Best Pick: Knoshon Moreno - I really wanted to nab this guy up but Crab beat me to the punch.  I am not sure where he is listed on the depth chart but in crunch time I think this will be the guy they have on the field.  Honorable mention: Greg Jennings.
Risk Pick: Kyle Rudolph -  Through two season the red-nosed tight end has only surpassed 60 yards receiving in a grand total of.....2 games.  As random as touchdown catches are (Calvin Jonson scored 5 tds in 2012) Rudolph will need to match the 9 he scored last year or his owners may end up red-faced.

Overall outlook:  I will be interested to see how the Brady / Ridley combo will shake out.  He has nothing to worry about at WR  I would wager a cheese sandwich that White / Cruz / Wayne will combine for 3750yds / 22 tds (+/- 500 yards and 3 tds)  Only time will tell if he can 3pete the top 3.

Me - I normally would go last and say something corny like...saving the best for last, but the truth is I have only finished top half (4th 2011) of the league once since the epic 2008 season.  I have fallen into the trap of going sexy vs going steady.  For example, in round 1 I could have easily picked a guy like Ray Rice who is about as sure of a thing that there is.  Instead  I watched this video one too many times and ended up with...

By going WR in rounds 2-4 I was aware that I was going to be short-handed at RB2.  Using picks 5-7 on RBs I was happy to walk out with the trio of McFadden / Gio Bernard / and Ryan Mathews.  If one of these backs finish in the top 15 that would give me a great shot at making a run.

Best Pick: Matt Ryan round 10 - Waiting on QB was a must this year.  I see no reason why his numbers would decline this year either.  Last year the #1 qb was Drew Brees with 379 points.  Matt Ryan finished 7th at 336.  Quick math tells me that is just over 2.5 points per week.  So to reference an old algorithm that I used years back:
Brees > Ryan
but
Ryan 10th > Brees 4th

Risk Pick: Darren McFadden rd 5 - I am not even going to hope that he plays all 16 games.  I am about 95% sure he will not.  However, what I can hope for is that he goes into 2011 mode which he racked up 770 yards and 5 tds in 6 games before going down with a season ending injury.

Overall outlook:  I pity Danny Amendola when it comes time for team shower.

This has taken too long I am going to cut back a little for the final 5 teams.  In a 10 team league everyone should look pretty good post-draft.

Styer

Best Pick - Golden Tate rd 8 - I really really wanted Tate in at least one league this year.  I do not know if the stats would back me up on this but I feel like he is one of the best in the league after the catch.  I am going to say top 20 WR this year.

Risk Pick - Colin Kaepernick rd 6 - Much safer options on the board at the time of this pick, but with the massive upside he has I can't really fault him.

That's a QB and that wasn't even his best run that game.

Overall outlook: This would be a sick ppr league team.  As is should still be a pretty solid team.  I think we see CJ closer to 2k than 1k this year.

John

Best Pick - Steven Jackson / Quiz Rodgers - Locking up that backfield is a wise move.  Michael Turner was barely breathing last season and still barreled into the end zone 10 times.

Risk Pick - Not so much an individual pick but drafting a 5th WR before a 3rd RB is always going to leave you a little short.  Honorable mention: not having television

Overall outlook: The foundation is nice,  Richardson / SJax are two of the hardest runners in the league but he is a Trent Richardson injury away from being in trouble.

Chad

Best Pick - Jamaal Charles rd 1 - I still am not sure why I passed on him.  Having him for his last 2 healthy seasons I think had something to do with it.  I should not have let that decide it though.  He is my pick to lead the league in yards from scrimmage in 13.' honorable mention: Chris Givens.

Risk Pick - The guys went in the rounds they should have went, but taking a tight end and a QB in the first 5 rounds is going to set you awfully lean somewhere else.  In this case it was WR.

Overall outlook:  I will be interested to see how this strategy pays off.  Between deep-threats Wallace / Gordon / Givens he is going to have some big weeks.  Having the right guys in the line up when the big week hits will be the challenge. Of the 5 guys that took RB/RB I like this pair just barely edging out McCoy / CJ4.24

Ritch

Best Pick - Greg Olsen rd 10 - 2nd most productive tight end over final 6 (or 8?) weeks in 2012.

Risk Pick - I was going to say for drafting 3 RBs over the age of 30.  BUT I just found a new candidate for "oldest young running back."

Bradshaw - feet of a 50 year old / face of a 40 year old / heart of a 27 year old

Overall outlook: I don't like Gore this year.  Nicks is always hurt.  Steve Smith is on the downside.  With that said Pete has done a nice job finishing in the top half of the league 4 years straight (in the money twice).  I do not think he has the personnel to get it done on talent alone so his managerial skills will be put to the test.

Ry

Best Pick - James Jones rd 5 / Eric Decker rd 6 -  Ry was able to take the WR's who scored the most (James Jones 14) and second most (Eric Decker 13) touchdowns in 2012 in rounds 5 and 6.  Those totals will be tough to match but still great value.

Risk Pick - Gronk round 4 - The time was right.  The reports from camp are encouraging as well.  With the Billy Ball handles things who knows what is actually going on.

Rehab is going well

Overall outlook: The foundation has been laid.  I like the Rb's I like the 35 potential tds at WR.  I think this team outcome squarely hinges on whether Stafford has a 2011 or 2012 season and what ends up happening with the Gronk.

There really are no "bad" teams on paper in a 10 man league.  I like some teams better than others.  Just for the sake of making a prediction...

in no particular order
top half
Munson
Trent
Crab
Me
Styer

bottom half no particular order
Ry
Chad
Ritch
John
Bob