Pat Down

Way off on this one.

Predicted Score: DEN 34 NE 30
Actual Score: DEN 26 NE 16

I really thought that this game would have 60+ points scored.  However, it doesn't take genius to figure out why it stayed under.

Here are the scoring drives that Peyton engineered.

Somewhere Ladarius Webb is smiling. (click)

10 plays / 73 yards / 4:07 (FG)

15 plays / 93 yards / 7:01 (TD) - - Longest (time) drive of season

8 plays / 63 yards / 2:29 (FG)

13 plays / 80 yards / 7:08 (TD) - - New longest drive of season

9 plays / 60 yards / 5:23 (FG)

6 plays / 39 yards / 2:26 (FG)

• Problem 1: Kicking 4 Fg's is sure fire way to send a game under especially when 3 of the 4 came from 35 yards or less.

• Problem 2: Two of the scoring scoring drives 7:01 and 7:08 accounted for just under 1 full quarter of the game. 

Once Talib went out with injury (which, by the way was an illegal pick) it was just too easy for Manning.

 I want more offensive pass interference called.  It's hard enough to play defense with the rules geared towards promoting offense.  This is something that could at least give the defense a fighting chance.  A good place to start would be crossing routes like above.  It does get called some, but I would like see a precedent set where if the offensive guy makes any contact with a defender on these types of plays it gets called every time.

I have never been a big Tom Brady fan.  A guy like that is easy to hate on.  Playing QB for a franchise that has won more games than anyone over the past decade is a start.  Having a net worth of $120 million is more fodder, but then he tops it off with marrying a super-model.  That google search proved to be a bit more enjoyable then trying to hunt up a bum picture used in the last entry.

I do have respect for Brady though.  Working with the cast of characters that he had to deal with this year could not have made his job easy.  Let's take a look at his main targets in Sunday's game.

No this is not a cover of "Metrosource"

What's Cutler's excuse?

Julian Edelman 5'10'' 198

Danny Amendola 5'11'' 195

Austin Collie 6'0'' 204

Just think if Brady had the weapons that the Bears do.  Probably a little easier throwing to 6'4'' 230 and 6'3'' 220.

 I do like Julian Edleman.  I think he is as tough as they come and could be a great role player on any team in the league.  However, having 3 guys that are all basically the same type of player is unnecessary.  Obviously, Bellicheck didn't plan for it to be this way.  As soon as the 6'6'' 260 Gronk went down for the season so did the Pats chances of winning a Super Bowl.  I could see New England making a run in free agency at a more prototypical type receiver.

I don't feel to bad for Patriot fans though.  Chalk up another 10+ win season and deep run into the playoffs. 

  

The NFL Dream

I have a pretty clear image in my head of what Roger Goodell looked like Sunday night after the completion of this weekends games.  The NFL could not have hand-drawn a better scenario.

EEEXXXXXXCCCELLEENNNNTTT

 After Kap and the 9'ers took care of Carolina, that locked in a Seahawks vs 49er's NFC Conference Championship game.  A certain prognosticator had this match up pegged back in March--check out the last sentence.  It really was not much of a ballsy prediction.  These were the best two teams in the NFC coming into the season.  SF vs SEA is quickly becoming one of the best rivalries in the NFL, and this conference championship game will only add to its allure.

....Goodell slips into his Peyton Manning jersey and roots harder for the Broncos than THIS GUY with a $20 bet on Denver -8.5 (not proud of some of the things I typed into google to find that)....

And he got his wish.  I can't say that I am upset that the stars have aligned for this match-up.  It's not everyday that you get to watch two first-ballot H.O.F quarterbacks battle it out to go to the Super Bowl.

Make that a Bronco Jersey on Manning and it would pass today

No, that is not a copy of this weeks Sports Illustrated.  That would be the cover from November 7th, 2005.  It really is quite remarkable how long these two have been 1 and 1-A for so long.  Also  I have to think its pretty rare that an SI cover could pop up 9 years later and it still be relevant.  Let's take a quick look at some other covers from 2005.

On to the picks....


Anytime you get the chance to bet on the most handsome and possibly the most intelligent man in the NFL you have to do it.....

Looks? CHECK Smarts? CHECK

Seahawks -3 vs 49ers

NFL Network had a replay of the week 14 SEA @ SF game.  Surprisingly, on a Thursday night I had nothing better to do so I figured I would watch it and see what I learned.
A few observations:
- SF moved ball well between 20's but bogged down big time in red zone - 4 FG's.


- Frank Gore had  17 for 110.  51 of those yards came on 1 run.  Take that run away and its 16 for 59. (week 2 @ SEA he had 9 for 16)
- With Crabtree back things opened up for Boldin (6 - 93 vs 1 - 7 week 2 )
- Kap didn't do much leg-work he moved to throw but never got loose - longest run 9 yards
- Patrick Willis got beat badly on 2 separate occasions by rookie tight end Luke Wilson

52 - lost in coverage

- SEA had no problem converting 3rd downs (41%)
- Kap and Wilson both threw 1 INT in the game.  Kap's was a crucial red zone turnover, while Wilson's was a launch down field with 17 seconds left in the game to try to get in FG range.  Kap also had about 2-3 other passes in the game that hit a Seattle defender first.  I trust RW more than Kap.

Jim Harbaugh is obviously a great coach. He is the first coach ever to take his team to 3 straight conference championship games ever.  However, there is something about him that bothers me.  His sideline demeanor resembles that of a college kid who just cashed in his Pell Grant and then decided to bet it on 1 game.

 I appreciate a show of emotion as much as anyone.  Although, when you are the head coach I believe you need to show some poise.  I am sure FOX will run some stupid slow motion replay of a Harbaugh meltdown at some point during the game.

Ok time for a prediction.  At the beginning of the year I had SEA winning the Super Bowl, I see no reason to back off that now.  Hopefully SEA starts fast and then the crowd takes over and Kap gives Sherman and the boys a few.
SEA 24
SF 16


Way to tired to get into anything in-depth for Brady v. Manning XV, but all I know is that you have 2 of the best QB's ever to play against what I would consider 2 middle of the road defenses.  If you think that the Pats will score 26+ points then take Pats + over 57 and you can do no worse than a split.  Also to me the idea of Tom Brady getting anything more than 3 points in a playoff game seems a bit silly.  It should be an entertaining game and hopefully a close finish.  Pats +5 over 57 for me.
NE 30
DEN 34

Good luck.

Wild Card Recap / Divisional Picks

Folks, I know I'm a bit tardy on a recap from the weekend.  I also know that the two people who read the preview were dying for the recap. I told my wife at dinner tonight it would be out soon and then called my brother to let him know as well.

Still juiced from the bullet-proof research on the monster day that Jamaal Charles was about to have I found myself unable to sleep.  I woke up very early that morning, it was 11:00 and Emily had prepared a nice brunch for me.  I then proceeded to partake in two fantasy playoff drafts.  The playoff draft is a completely different animal than a regular draft, but that is another story for another day.  I was happy with the teams I had assembled and actually began to get pumped for the playoffs.

NOOOOOOO!!!!!

.......Annnnnnnndddd 6 plays into the 2013-2014 postseason it was done.  I like to cry bad beat as much as the next guy, but this really was a tough one to take.

- In the 2 drafts I had earlier that day I was of course lucky enough to draw the 2nd and 3rd picks.  I used both of those picks on Charles.  I was happy at the time, but why couldn't my name have been drawn 4th or later...JC would have probably been off the board.

-I rarely bet on props.  Seeing Charles's rush yards for the game at O/U 93 was enough to get me to make my first propositional wager of the season.

- 329 - That is the number of times that JC handled the ball this year with out getting injured. So it figures his 3rd touch of the post season would be his last.

Ok, time to refocus.  I still have a nice bet on KC at +1.5 and a Chief win would give Charles a week to recover and get back out there for their next game. 31-10 at the half, the texts start rolling in about what a good call this was and how easy it was.  The beat-down ensued early in the 3rd with Luck's first pass being picked off and KC finding itself in the end zone a few plays later and now an almost lock-city 38-10 lead.

At this point according to ESPN's Stats and Information the Colts had exactly a 0.9% chance to win the game at this point.  The bottles were popped, and it was time to look ahead to the saints game

NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

After that play I quickly corked my  2 liter o' cola and resided to the fact that KC was done.  The only thing that kept me from literally losing my mind was that the +1.5 was still $.

As right as I was about the Saints going out on the road and getting the job done, I was that much wrong and them some about Andy Dalton getting his first playoff win.  Although, I shouldn't say I was surprised with the outcome after writing this gem on Dalton a month ago.  There is plenty of blame to go around in Cincinnati but anyone who has watched their fair share of Bengal ball knows where it should be placed.  As mentioned in the article above the Bengals are destined for mediocrity.  Although if they lose their defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer mediocre might be something to aim for.

If I actually believed it I would have included offensive coordinator Jay Gruden as a major loss also.  However, any coordinator who lets Dalton chuck it 37 times with a clear conscious is clearly not an asset to the team.
Here are some numbers that hopefully the next O-coordinator pays attention to.

He is getting what he deserves for being a bully as a kid

45 Pass Att. vs Steelers W 20-10
42 Pass Att. @ Browns L 17-6
40 Pass Att. @ Bills W 27-24
53 Pass Att. @ Miami L 22-20
51 Pass Att. @ Ravens L 20-17
44 Pass Att. @ Steelers L 30-20
51 Pass Att. vs Chargers L 27-10

That's 2-5 anytime Andy throws it more than 40 times.


The Pack and 9'ers game was pretty entertaining despite the elements.  Sunday we saw the Kaepernick that San Fran fans should hope to see more of.  When its win or go home Kap is going to use those legs a lot more than he did in the regular season.  Over the course of the 16 regular season games he only ran for more than 55 yards twice--on Sunday he had 98.

I hope this guy at least took Jordy out to dinner first.

On to the divisional round...

Seahawks -7.5 vs Saints
Going to wait to officially lock it in, but if I see this guy present in that always ruckus crowd I will be playing the Seahawks.  The weather forecast for this game does not line up well for the Saints (heavy rain 25-30mph wind).  I am not going to forget that it took New Orleans 46 seasons to win their first road playoff game. Asking them to do it back to back weeks is a tall order--especially in Seattle.  With the weather under 45 is also worth a look.  SEA 24 N.O 13

Patriots -7 vs Colts
Maybe I am just being a hater, but I am also being factual when I say that Alex Smith and the KC Chiefs hung 44 points on the Colts IN Indy.  T.Y Hilton is a nice role player, but last week he feasted on a banged up secondary on a fast track.  Outdoors he did not have a single game where he had more than 5 catches, and only 1 game in which he had more than 50 yards receiving.  I think Billy Ball will have a good game plan to keep him from going off.  I see this one as the biggest blow out of the weekend.  Pats -7 / over 51  NE 40 Indy 20


Bonus Bet: T.Y Hilton UNDER 5.5 catches / UNDER 75.5 yds.  There will obviously be an inflation on his numbers for this week based on last weeks performance.  However, the logic on this one is pretty simple.  He has yet to achieve either of those numbers in a game outdoors yet this year.

Panthers +1.5 vs 49ers
I am a big time believer in the Panthers defense. In week 10 these two got together for an old fashioned shoot-out that ended up 10-9.  In that game Carolina held the Niners to a grand total of 151 yards of offense.  Asking the defense to replicate a performance like that is hardly realistic, but the Panthers have played tough at home all year going 7-1 with their lone loss coming in week 1 vs Seattle in a very tight game.

At home the defense has been especially stingy allowing point totals of:

12, 0, 15, 10, 20, 6, 20, 13.  I don't see Kap making enough throws to extend drives in this one and the Carolina defense is fast enough to neutralize his legs.  At the end of the day I trust Cam to make a few more plays and lead them to the W. Would lean very hard to the under 41.5 in this one as well.  CAR 20 SF 16

Broncos -8.5 vs Chargers
Enough of the Charger love please.  Let's all take a trip back in the time machine to 2 weeks ago when everything broke just right for them and all that stood between them and a playoff berth was Chase Daniel and a good portion of the KC second stringers.  In case you aren't a Steelers fan you might not remember how the game shook out but let's just say that the Chargers were very lucky to win.  This week they will face Peyton Manning, who unlike Andy Dalton will not be handing out candy like it was Halloween, and more importantly if interceptions were every referred to as candy.  The point is Manning > Dalton.  The Chargers can be frustrating.  It is very hard to get them off the field on offense.  They can go on some very time consuming possessions which is the exact recipe that we saw in week 15 to beat Denver.  I see the came playing out as Denver jumping ahead quick, which will get SD out of the run on 1st, run on 2nd, convert 3rd and 3 mentality.  No strong opinion on the total in this one but I definitely trust Manning to get this one done DEN 34 SD 17

Solid 6 point Teaser: Pats -1 / Broncos -2.5.

Good luck.

Wild Card Weekend

Happier when there are 16 games in an NFL weekend, but going to have to settle for 4 of them this weekend.  Should be some pretty good games with LV setting 3 of the 4 games at a FG or less point spread.

Chiefs @ Colts (-1.5)
 Well my prayers have been answered.  I have been licking my chops for this potential match up since I wrote about it in week 13.  Indy going into KC and laying a 23-7 beating in week 16 has given bookmakers no choice but to favor Indy at home for this match up.

So what wrong wrong week 16 for KC?

 TURNOVERS

 -  4 Turnovers (1 int  / 3 fumbles) - 3 fumbles is a very flukey stat. Sadly, they actually fumbled 6 times in that game but recovered 3 of them.

Turnover breakdown from other 15 games.
0 Turnovers: 8
1 Turnover:  5
2 Turnovers: 1
3 Turnovers: 1


In 13/16 games KC had 1 or less turnover, so it does not take a mathematician to answer the following question....

What is more likely to occur?
A. The Chiefs will have 1 or less turnover?
B. The Chiefs will have 2 or more turnovers?

TIME OF POSSESION

- KC held the ball for a whopping 22/60 minutes vs Indy in week 16.  In there other 15 games they won the time of possession battle (30+ minutes) in 10 of 15 games.

7 POINTS???

- The 7 points that KC scored in week 16 was their lowest point total of any week.  Their next lowest total for the year was 17.  I guess when you only have the ball for 22 minutes and turn it over 4 times it's going to be hard to get any points on board...also....



3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS

- Week 16 vs Indy the Chiefs converted on 3rd downs at a sickening 12% clip.
- The NFL average for 3rd down conversions is 38%
- KC came in below league average with a 35% conversion rate and something that actually does concern me -- a league worst 29.5% on the road.

While it won't come as any surprise if KC does struggle a bit on 3rd downs there is a remedy for success....

FEEEED 25!!!!

While the above stats are all eye-soars for KC backers the following will be the gleam that we will go after.

Please Andy...25 carries for 25

- In week 16 KC ran the ball 20 times for 155 yards - - That's 7.8 yards per carry.
- 7.8 yards per carry is a full 1.5 yards more than they ran for in any other game this season.
- Jamaal Charles week 16: 13 carries: 106 yards - - 8.1 yards per carry.

Indy Rush Defense
 - Indy gives up 125 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry both of which rank 26th in the league.

How has J.C. fared in previous match-ups vs Indy...
2010: 16 - 87 - 5.4 ypc
2012: 22 - 226 - 10.3 ypc
2013: 13 - 106 - 8.1 ypc

Here is what Indy will be dealing with.  There are a few runs from his 2012 carving in this package.

I can't envision any scenario that Charles doesn't have a monster game.  To top it all off the dome of Lucas Oil Stadium will offer one of the faster tracks in the league for him to get loose on.

So although KC struggles mightily on the road in 3rd down conversion if they hand it to JC on 1st and 2nd down I don't think they will have to worry about 3rd down.

I believe the Kool-Aid man will be on full parade tomorrow post game - - KC takes it down 28-20

Tired now so just some quick thoughts on the other 3 games.

Saints +2.5 @ Philly
- Philly is the hot team right now but keep in mind that they are 1-3 vs playoff teams with the lone win coming against an Aaron Rogerless Packers.
- Can't get the image of Matt Cassle torching the Eagles secondary for 48 points in a few weeks ago.
- Saints put the road demons to bed in this one....31-24

Bengals -7 vs Chargers
- Bengals undefeated at home and blowing teams out in the jungle.
- San Diego super efficient on offense and usually own time of possession.
- Andy Dalton is sure to do some things that will make Bengal fans very nervous but the defense will be there to bail him out.
- Marvin Lewis is 0-4 in his 4 career playoff games, this is the year he breaks the streak 30-13

49ers -3 @ Packers
- Weather calling for -50 wind-chill....and they wonder why they are having a hard time selling out this game.  I mean I like paying 300 bucks to sit in -50 degree weather as much as the next guy but come on.
- This brings me to a thought that I had earlier this year.  With the type of money that is tossed around in the NFL I think it should be mandated that all NFL teams have retractable roofs.  Playing in that kind of weather is just ridiculous.  The thought originally hit me after the Lions / Philly snow game

Unable to kick XP because of 4 inches of snow on the ground

Wind sucks too..

Fog Bowl - Not a good seat in the house

Maybe that is just my fantasy football mind coming out in that complaint.  I am sure for the casual fan something like that Detroit / Philly game was entertaining to watch....for a Matt Stafford / Calvin Johnson owner - -a nightmare.

As for the -50 degree SF / GB game I think this is the toughest one to pick a winner.  Once again weather brings in an unpredictability that I am just not a fan of.  There is no way to practice for this type of thing so I expect a low scoring tight game with the better defense coming out on top in the end...20-14

Should be a fun weekend...

Peyton Manning: Putting the Numbers Into Perspective

Peyton Manning went ahead and put together the greatest statistical season of any QB in NFL history.

A recap of the 2013 season for Manning.

Pass Attempts: 659
Pass Completions: 450
Completion Percentage: 68%
Yards: 5,477*
Touchdowns: 55*
Interceptions: 10
*NFL Records

Growing up Peyton had everyone watching and waiting to see if he would be as good as his old man.  Archie had a HOF worthy college career as well as the honor of being the 2nd overall pick in the 1971 draft.  I think its safe to say that Peyton has handled that pressure and even upstaged his dad by being the #1 pick in the draft 27 years later. 



Some guys handle it better than others.  Me for example, having a father who was enshrined into the FHOF put a tremendous burden on me at a young age.  Yea, I heard the whispers and knew the numbers....55...60...65 hours a week.  At the end of the day I knew I wasn't going to live up the lofty bar he had set--Hell, I couldn't even start a tractor.  I spent my early 2000's  carrying the label of the Ryan Leaf of farming.



As mentioned above Manning's 2013 will be talked about for years to come and might withstand the test of time as the greatest statistical season any QB will ever put up.  With all that said I have a problem with how these numbers came to be.

Why did Manning throw so much in the 4th quarter?
 
First off, Denver creamed teams this year with 6 of their 13 wins coming by 20+ points and 10/13 by double digits.  My question is how can the QB of a team who is usually up by a fairly comfortable margin in the 4th quarter end up leading the league in pass attempts?  The 659 passes he attempted this season not only led the league this year but was good enough for the 6th most in NFL history.  I would be willing to give him a pass here if he racked these numbers up in the first 3 quarters and then handed the ball off in the 4th and ran the clock out like any respectable team does when they are up by 14+ in the 4th quarter.  After some digging it turns out that the 138 passes that he attempted in the 4th quarter accounted for 21% of his total passes and only 7 QB's in the entire league threw more in the 4th than Manning.

  ----Typical Manning fashion on his record breaker, 4:34 left in the 4th QTR / 17 point game.----

How about a run inside the 10?

 When you throw 55 touchdowns there are obviously going to be some shorties mixed in there but Manning made a living off the short TD pass in 2013.
Total Touchdown Passes: 55
Touchdown passes of less than 10 yards: 27
Touchdown passes of less than 5 yards: 18

Peyton has no problem calling his own number when they get close.  This season Manning attempted 51 passes from inside the 10 yard line -- 30 of which came from inside the 5.  To put the in perspective Matthew Stafford ranked 4th with 25 passes attempted inside the 10, or in other-words 1/2 as many attempts as Manning.

Peyton Manning had more touchdowns passes (27) of less than 10 yards than Tom Brady had total TD passes (26).

Peyton Manning's (18) touchdown passes from 5 yards or less was the same number of total TD passes that brother Eli threw.

It's hard to argue with success.  Manning chucking the ball 42 times a game is their best bet to win so maybe I am just being a hater.

Now there is some controversy on if his yardage record will stand.  After watching the video I'm 99.9% sure that it is a lateral, which would give the record back to Brees.  This might be some karma coming back on Manning for all those runs that he checked out of when down inside the 5.

Being an Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas fantasy football owner this season made the excessive amount of throwing enjoyable for me.  However, if you were one of the players that had no piece of the Bronco fantasy cream pie than you probably didn't ask for a Peyton Manning jersey for Christmas and instead maybe this.


 

Black Monday

"Black Monday" - The Monday following week 17 of the NFL season.  A day that has become synonymous with head coaches and other managerial positions get fired.  Most coaches might feel the wrath of Black Monday maybe 2 or 3 times at the most, however; for me it is a yearly dread.

I can't imagine any teams that made the playoffs will be making any changes at the top so of the teams that didn't make the playoffs..

 100% Safe
Bruce Arians - Arizona Cardinals
John Harbaugh - Baltimore Ravens
Mike Tomlin - Pittsburgh Steelers
Marc Trestman - Chicago Bears
Gus Bradley - Jacksonville Jaguars
Jeff Fisher - STL Rams

Not Sleeping Well...But Should Be Safe

Tom Coughlin - NY Giants
Down year this year, but good luck finding someone with a better resume.
-.560 winning %
- 5 playoff berths
- 3 NFC East Championships
- 2  NFC Conf. Championships
- 2 Super Bowl Rings
- 1 permanently frost bitten face


Mike Smith - Atlanta Falcons
I wanted to put him in the top group just based on how good they have been since his arrival.  However, anytime a team losses 8 or their final 10 anything can happen.  I think he gets a pass.

Doug Marrone - Buffalo Bills
"We are going to give C.J. Spiller the ball until he throws up."
-Doug Marrone, Aug. 2013 
CJ Spiller had more than 17 carries in a whopping 3 games so either Doug Marrone is a liar or CJ Spiller has a weak stomach.  Unless your nickname is Chud most coaches will get at least 2 years to show something so he should be safe.  With that said, this hire baffled me from the get go and there are definitely more appealing names on the market than Dougy.

Hey Rex you are probably going to keep your job...

Rex Ryan - New York Jets

I think that the fact that the Jets finished the year the way they did speaks volumes about how the players feel about him.  Everything you hear is how the players love to play for the guy and they showed it winning winning 3 out of 4 to finish the year on the heels of a 3 game losing streak.




Mike Munchak - Tennessee Titans
Didn't get to play with a full deck for most of the season and managed to motivate the team enough to finish the season with 2 wins.

Dennis Allen - Oakland Raiders
Pretty pathetic 8-24 record through 2 seasons.  He came in last year with zero expectations to contend and lived up to those expectations.  I think he will get another year.


Already Fired

Rob Chudzinski - Cleveland Browns
Pretty rare to see an NFL coach go one and done, but that is the case here.  Tough beat for this guy never playing with any consistency at the QB position.  The fact that the 28 times he went for it on 4th down was 9 more than the 4 place team says his aggression might have been a bit much.


Will Be Fired

Schwartz staying classy after a nice road win

Jim Schwartz - Detroit Lions
He has accumulated a record of 29-50.  For those of you that struggle with math or the ability to use a calculator that is a win % of .367.  That combined with the end of the year collapse should be enough to send this guy packing.  Aside from acting like a 16 year old girl and always playing with his hair my lasting memory from this jackass has to be...

Mike Shanahan - From the penthouse to the outhouse in just a year.  I don't disagree with how he handled RG3 down the stretch this season, but I think there is probably some behind the scenes stuff that the public isn't aware of.  Not having a 1st round pick in the upcoming draft isn't doing the new guy any favors either.  The "Shanarat" pic is so nice I had to use it twice.

Probably Get Fired

Greg Schiano - Tampa Bay Bucs 

After the start that Schiano and Bucs had this season for him to just make it through the season is quite an accomplishment.  Anytime a billboard pops up in your city suggesting that you should be fired things aren't good.  He actually had them playing pretty hard for a stretch, but at the end of the day I don't think his "chop wood" style that was so successful when coaching middle class 18-22 year old kids is going to work with full grown adults who also happen to be making high 6 and 7 figures a year.

Joe Philbin - Miami Dolphins

I spoke of a 2 year rule earlier.  Joe has had his 2 years and lost as favorites in week 16 and 17 with a playoff birth on the line.  The sour taste that the brass has in Miami might just put Joey P. in the soup line.

Yes Garrett 3 times...

Jason Garrett - Dallas Cowboys

8-8 for the 3rd straight season.  Losing in a week 17 do-or-die for the 3rd straight season.  I know he isn't the one out there throwing those interceptions at the worst possible times but at the end of the day something needs to change and the head coach position is probably a good place start.

Leslie Frazier - Minnesota Vikings

.387 win % and a one and done wildcard in 2012 just isn't enough in 3 seasons of work in this day and age.  They made some serious moves in the off season / draft to contend this year and 5-10-1 cannot be what Wario...I mean Zygi had in mind. The Vikings will have a new stadium in 2014 and probably a new coach as well.

Some of these guys will be spending their "Black Monday" the way I do.  It usually starts out with a good cry.  From there usually some time spent in a dark room in denial.  Eventually it turns into reminiscing about the good times.  These guys don't have it so bad though they usually only feel the Black Monday pain once or twice in a lifetime.

 

NFL week 15 - Teaser Time

Vegas is always right.  They know exactly what they are doing with each and every point spread that hits the board.  However, if things fall wrong in week 15 this could be a blood-bath for books everywhere.

If I had a dollar for every 6 point teaser that is played tomorrow I would never have to work again.  For the rookies out there a 6 point teaser is when you pick a minimum of 2 (6 point teasers can be played with as many teams as you want with escalating odds) teams and move that teams line 6 points in one direction or the other.  In order to get the bet right both teams must cover.

Lets take a look at the juicy options for tomorrow...the numbers I post will be with the line teased 6 points.

Falcons pk vs Redskins
49ers pk @ Bucs
Seahawks -1 @ Giants
Eagles -1/2 @ Vikings
Saints -1/2 @ Rams
Chiefs pk @ Raiders
Cowboys -1/2 vs Packers

I am sure there will be someone somewhere who plays all 7 of these as one teaser.  A 7 team 6 point teaser pays approx +900 odds.  So for the guy that throws down $100 on this too good to be true option would win $900 dollars.  This surely won't happen but I guarantee that combinations of these teams will be showing up on plenty of 2/3/4 team 6 point teasers.

Confidence meter on these 7 games
1. Chiefs - Should be energized with new life after seeing their hopes for AFC West come back to life with Denver losing Thursday night.

2. Eagles - Same thing with the Cowboys losing on MNF.  They are in the heat of a division race and I can't see them slipping up vs a potentially Adrian Petersonless Vikings

3. 49ers - 2nd best team in the NFC starting to play some good ball.  That defense vs Glennon should be enough.

4. Seahawks - Best team in the NFC.  The loss in SF last week should serve as a wake up call

5. Falcons - Skins are a mess I could see this team quitting if they get behind early

I actually like the first 5 of this and might throw a few bucks on it just for sport....a 5 team pays +400

6. Cowboys - Can't trust that defense even against Flynn.

7. Saints - On the road, in a dome but rams have been tough.

There aren't many days that Vegas books lose money, but if 1 or 2 of these teams don't lose there are going to be a lot of tickets getting cashed...