Not this time though. Thanks to my gracious wife, instead of raiding the shelves of Home Depot I was sitting in the Consol Energy Center ready to take in the 27th edition of WWE's Royal Rumble. Anyone who watches wrestling knows that the Royal Rumble is right up there with Wrestlemania for best pay-per-view of the year. Here were a few takeaways from the experience.
1. The explosions / pyrotechnics are really really loud. I don't know if it was because of where we were seated, but I had a mini-heart attack and hurt my neck when the first explosions went off.
2. Daniel Bryan is the best thing going in WWE right now. He has uncovered the sure fire formula for success. Aside from being the best in-ring entertainer in the business he has a fun chant.
3. Kofi Kingston does something crazy every year at the Royal Rumble.
4. Poor John Cena, his fan base now only consists of women, kids ranging in age from 7 to 17.
I actually like John Cena the person. I was at the State College show on Friday night. John Cena came out with the same energy for the 3500 fans and no TV cameras that he had for the 15,000 fans and pay-per-view-audience two nights later. The fact that he has granted more Make-A-Wish foundation dreams than anyone says something about his character too.
5. The crowd in Pittsburgh was great. I didn't realize that chanting the word "YES!" with 15000 other people could be so fun, but it was.
Ok, that was probably a little more than what any 29 year old should be writing about wrestling so lets move on.
There are hundreds of ways to win or lose money on Super Bowl Sunday. With so many options there has to be an edge somewhere.
Game Props
- Coin Toss - After running a few simulations here at my desk I am having a hard time uncovering anything. As for the toss at the game variables such a wind / coin size / artificial landing service make this one nearly impossible to peg.
While there is no edge in the coin toss there might be something in the kickers.
- Steven Hauschka: 39/41: has kicked at least one FG of 30+ yards in 14/18 games.
- Matt Prater: 30/32: has kicked at least one FG of 30+ yards in 12/18 games.
Will both teams make a 33+ yard FG in the game? YES! +120
With LV giving + odds on this obviously means it won't be as easy as what I envision. With two of the best kickers in the league I just need a drive to stall out somewhere before the 15 yard line and I will take my chances.
While sticking with the kickers here is a fun one.
Total yardage on all made FG's O/U 113.5 - OVER
Jersey # of first TD O/U 79 - OVER -125
Here is a list of who I think could possibly score a TD in this game.
UNDER 79.5
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| thenewstribune |
Percy Harvin (0)
Jermaine Kearse (5)
Marshawn Lynch (15)
Andre Caldwell (3)
Knowshon Moreno (14)
Montee Ball (4)
Total TD's (42)
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| zimbio |
Now that is how you sniff out an edge. Although with the -125 juice it appears Vegas also spotted this edge. Win or lose the numbers back this as a solid bet.
Seahawks Player Props
Russell Wilson 1st rushing attempt: 5.5 yards - OVER
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| sbnation |
This isn't some stiff we are talking about here. Russ has been making plays with his legs all year.
- 13/18 games has had a run of 10+ yards.
- 12/18 games average yard per carry > 5.
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| gamdayr |
Last week he made a few plays with his legs; not in the running game, but extending plays like the one above. I have to believe that the Broncos have paid attention to this and put an emphasis on not coming off the receivers when he starts scrambling. Using this school of thought it would only make sense to play over on his longest rush attempt. So...
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| topteamfantasy |
Hopefully the defenders are sticking on the receivers long enough for Russ to get more than 12 yards down field.
Here is a list of the mobile QB's that Denver faced this year and how they fared.
Pryor: 4 - 36 / long: 23
Vick: 8 - 41 / long: 13
Smith: 5 - 32 / long: 25
Smith: 4 - 46 / long: 26
Pryor: 9 - 49 / long: 11
Looking at the YPC and the long runs in each of those match ups has me feeling pretty good about any Russell Wilson rushing prop.
I am going to have a hard time taking over on any Marshawn Lynch prop. With the tear he has been on the past two games his prop numbers are going to be slightly inflated across the board. One area this can be taken advantage of his in the receiving game.
Simply going to play the odds on this one. In only 7/18 games did he have a catch that went for longer than 8 yards. In 3 of those 7 games his longest catch was 9 yards. Basically a bad spot away from only hitting over 8.5 in < 1/4 of games played.
Marshawn Lynch total receiving yards 14.5: UNDER
Once again the math is right for this play.
-12/18 games Lynch was held under 14.5 receiving yards.
- Furthermore, he was held to 0 (3 times) or 1 reception in 8/18 games. In the 5 games that he had only 1 catch it went for 5 yards or less.
- Something else that is encouraging is that the lone screen pass play ran vs SF back up Robert Turbin got the touch.
It doesn't really take much of an imagination to see how this one could blow up in my face. This prop will be soiled if Denver were to jump out to a big lead. The Bronco defense would go soft allowing for a few Wilson to Lynch check downs that would crush the yardage prop and probably the long too.
Robert Turbin total rushing rushing yards 11.5: UNDER
Going against the numbers on this one. Turbin has gone over that mark in 12/18 games. Those other 18 games weren't the Super Bowl. In the biggest game of the year Seattle is going to ride the horse that carried them here. We have already seen that in the divisional and conference championship games.
vs Saints: Lynch 28 / Turbin 3
vs 49ers: Lynch 22 / Turbin 2
I think Turbin gets a max of 2 carries in this game. As long as he doesn't pop either one the under 11.5 will be safe.
There is call for concern being on either side of any of the Percy Harvin props. As you are about to see I think he is way to good to let what I perceive as tremendous value slip through the cracks.
Percy Harvin total receptions 3.5: OVER -160
My first question is why are they doing this with the juice? Why wouldn't they just move it up to 4 or 4.5 with standard juice??
Here is my theory. As mentioned here Percy Harvin is one of the most likeable guys in the league. Actually, I just assume that because all of my friends like him....so about 5 people like him. I guess that sample size is a bit small for this theory. Anyways, I feel like Vegas believes that people are going to take the OVER on his catches if they lay it anywhere from 3.5-5. Even though the number is smaller than 4-5 the -160 juice might be enough to deter your average joe from playing it. Or possibly, they are hoping that folks will see the +130 beside the UNDER and try for the better pay out. If you don't bet or understand juice then forget that you even read those last few sentences.
The heavy juice is not going to be enough to scare me off. I went through all of Harvin's game logs and this is what it looks like.
Games with 4 or more catches
2009: 10/17
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| bleacherreport |
2011: 11/16
2012: 7/9
2013: 0/2
Grand Total: 39/58 - - 67%
A 67% success rate makes the -160 juice drinkable.
There is still some mystery involved in just exactly how Seattle is going to use Harvin. If the game against the Saints is any indicator he will be a major part of the game plan. Harvin was on the field for 20 of 34 snaps. A chunk of those missed snaps came after taking this hit. Of the 20 snaps he was on the field he came up with 3 catches on 4 targets and 1 rush.
Percy Harvin total receiving yards 51.5: OVER
Way to much potential here to not play the over. LV also sees the potential in Harvin by making him the 5th best odds to win SB MVP behind Manning, Wilson, Lynch, Moreno.
Jermaine Kearse first catch 11.5 yards: OVER even
This prop might as well read will Jermaine Kearse catch a pass. For the season his average yards per reception was 21.6 yards.
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| emeraldcityswagger |
Will Richard Sherman intercept a pass: NO -250
Huge juice at -250, but the value on this is impossible to pass on. Half of Sherman's 8 INT's this season came against the 2 guys who threw it to the other team more than anyone in the league (Eli Manning / Carson Palmer). With all the pub Sherman's numbers are being billed to please the public eye. I am going to the other way.
Broncos Player Props
After scanning through the Denver props and punching some numbers into a calculator it looks like the books are low-balling them across the board on their yardage totals - - minus Wes Welker.
Season Per Game Average/ / Yardage Prop in SB
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| mmqb.si / steve nehf |
D. Thomas: 90 / / 75.5
Decker: 77 / / 64.5
Welker: 56 / / 57.5
J. Thomas: 59 / / 52.5
Moreno: 66 / / 59.5
I am well aware of the the fact that Seattle sports the number one defense, but I just find it odd that the books are giving them so much credit. It is pretty much common knowledge that the casual bettor is looking for OVERS to play. With that said for them to low-ball all the season averages being well aware that over action is going to come in on the juggernaut Broncos offense might be telling how this game plays out.
I will take the bait on one...
Demaryius Thomas total receiving yards 75.5: OVER -110
I can't pass on something that he achieved 67% of the time at -110 odds. Also he is piping hot going for 113+ in 3 of his last 4 games. I don't know if this is the Sherman factor kicking in, but as mentioned in a previous article Sherman doesn't travel with the other teams top dog.
Julius Thomas total receiving yards 52: UNDER -120
Seattle is as tough as they come vs the tight end. Here are the game logs vs any relevant tight end they have faced this year.
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| sfexaminer |
Vernon Davis: 3 - 20
Owen Daniels: 6 - 72
Coby Fleener: 2 - 15
Delanie Walker: 4 - 29
Jared Cook: 3 - 31
Tim Wright: 4 - 58
Tony Gonzo: 3 - 39
Jimmy Graham: 3 - 42
Vernon Davis: 2 - 21
Jared Cook: 5 - 30
Jimmy Graham: 1 - 8
Vernon Davis: 2 - 16
Having faced Jimmy Graham twice and Vernon Davis 3 times is a pretty good test. It's a test that they passed with flying colors allowing an average of 21 yards per game over those 5 contests.
Julius Thomas has had some big games, but as it turns out more often than not he has been held under the 52 yards the books have laid out for this game (10/16 games under 52 yards).
Andre Caldwell total receiving yards 7.5: UNDER -110
For this to be accurate I am going to exclude the 3 games Wes Welker missed with injury.
- 15 games
- ZERO targets in 8/15
- No more than 2 targets in other 7 games
- More than 7 yards receiving in 5/15 games
The only thing that is a bit concerning here is the fact that in both playoff games so far he has caught a pass for 15 and 11 yards. There is a better than 50% chance that he doesn't have a ball thrown his way though.
Super Bowl Specials
These are some long shot plays with some big pay-offs
Demaryius Thomas OVER 124.5 yards receiving + 450
Jermaine Kearse OVER 49.5 yards receiving +500
Percy Harvin 2+ Touchdowns Scored +750
Super Bowl MVP
It has basically turned into the QB from the winning team taking this honor home. Here is to hoping that trend is bucked this year.
Marshawn Lynch +450
Percy Harvin + 1800
6 Point Teaser
Have never been a big fan of teasers but crossing some very key numbers make this a worth while play.
Seahawks +8.5 UNDER 54
I can't write this whole blog up and not have an actual play on the game. I probably like about 75% of the props listed above more than I actually like the play on this game. Everyone wants to make this game about the number 1 offense vs number 1 defense; however, I think the game is going to be won or loss on the flip sides of the ball. I feel like Denver rolls out of bed regardless of who they are going to play and put up 20-27 points. I think one of the story lines will be the Broncos settle for 3 points to many times. I think the outcome of this game is going to be decided by the Seahawks offense vs Broncos defense - - SEA 24 DEN 23 - - Seahawks +2.5
Lets pretend I am rich. Here is how I would spread it.
1. Both teams make a 33+ yard FG +120 YES - 500 to win 600
2. Total yardage on all made FG's 113.5 -115 OVER 500 to win 435
3. Jersey # of first Touchdown 79.5 -125 OVER 750 to win 600
4. Russell Wilson yards on first rushing attempt 5.5 -115 OVER 300 to win 260
5. Russell Wilson longest rush 12.5 -130 OVER 390 to win 300
6. Marshawn Lynch longest reception 8.5 - even UNDER 350 to win 350
7. Marshawn Lynch receiving yards 14.5 -115 UNDER 350 to win 305
8. Robert Turbin total rushing yards 11.5 -115 UNDER 575 to win 500
**prop of the night 9. Percy Harvin total receptions 3.5 -160 OVER 1600 to win 1000**
10. Percy Harvin total receiving yards 51.5 -115 690 to win 600
11. Jermaine Kearse first reception 11.5 - even 350 to win 350
12. Will Richard Sherman intercept a pass - NO -250 500 to win 200
13. Demaryius Thomas total receiving yards 75.5 -110 OVER 660 to win 600
14. Julius Thomas total receiving yards 52 -120 UNDER 480 to win 400
15. Andre Caldwell total receiving yards 7.5 -110 UNDER 440 to win 400
16. Demaryius Thomas OVER 124.5 receiving yards +450 150 to win 675
17. Jermaine Kearse OVER 49.5 receiving yards +500 100 to win 500
18. Percy Harvin to score 2+ touchdowns +750 100 to win 750
19. Marshawn Lynch MVP +450 130 to win 585
20. Percy Harvin MVP +1800 100 to win 1800
21. 6 point teaser -110 Seahawks +8.5 UNDER 54 660 to win 600
22. Game: Seahawks +2.5 even 750 to win 750
*I do not own or claim to own any of the photos or vidoes in this or any of my blog entries.*
