Rams

 Was just watching my typical Monday night television programming ie: WWE Monday Night Raw and heard this great quote...

"If you can't feed em--don't breed em"
-Zeb Colter

One more random thing...

 Here is some footage from Bobby Huxta's trip to Lake Raystown...

Vegas Odds: O/U 7.5 wins

I really think this is a team on the up.  I just wish 1/4 of their games weren't against the 49ers and Seahawks.  After glancing over their schedule I see them definitely being favored in the following:
week 1 vs Arizona
week 5 vs Jags
week 9 vs Titans
week 16 vs Bucs

Their other 4 home games are vs:
week 4 vs 49ers
week 8 vs Seahawks
week 12 vs Bears
week 15 vs Saints

Hard to predict what teams will look like that far down the road.  I could see the lines all being fairly tight in those 4 games but Rams will be dogs.

The road schedule isn't easy either:
week 2 @ Falcons
week 3 @Cowboys
week 6 @ Texans
week 7 @ Panthers
week 10 @ Colts
week 13 @ 49ers
week 14 @ Cardinals
week 17 @ Seahawks

Week 14 at Arizona would be the only week I could see them being favored.

At the ABSOLUTE MOST I could see them being favored in 7 games (add Chi/Saints/@Cardinals to the initial list of 4.  That is being very generous and I think 4-5 games would be more realistic.

Even with the brutally tough road schedule I am going to stick with my gut on this team.  I think they are on the rise and will win 8 games this year.

Tavon Austin - Here is a good stat:  Since 2005 (28) receivers have been drafted in the first round.  Exactly 1 receiver has eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark (AJ Green 2011).  It hasn't come any easier in the TD department as there has only been 1 to record 8+ touchdowns (Julio Jones 2011).  While those numbers don't exactly spell good news there is still hope for Tavon.

60/790/6 - That stat-line represents Percy Harvin's rookie season.  He also tacked on another 135 rushing bringing him to 925 total yards.  The Rams have said they are going to use Austin in a variety of ways.  He has already showed his ability as a punt returner and I would expect them to be getting the ball in his hands early and often.  I can't really picture the 170lb frame of Austin taking it between the tackles but I am sure they are going to find ways to get the ball in his hands

As history shows 1st round rookie receivers have not had much success, however; I think Tavon is a slightly different case because of his skill-set.  He is going to get his touches, whether it be quick screens or little flare passes.  If the Rams do decide to give him 2-3 touches a week out of the backfield that will only enhance his fantasy value.  I think the 925 yards that Harvin racked up in his rookie season is a decent ballpark for Tavon.  In mock drafts Tavon is currently the 31st WR being selected.  His upside certainly seems like fair value at that spot.

a laugh / a buy / a sell

Three years from now I might look back at this and laugh about how wrong I was.  However, for the time being I am laughing at something else.

It was a rough home debut for Geno.  Three 1st half interceptions + this gem closed the book on his night as well as any chance to start week 1 of the regular season.


Buy/Sell

Kenbrell Thompkins - Has opened some eyes this preseason and posted an 8-116 stat line in his last game.  If anyone had not heard of Thompkins yet Yahoo! sports writer Brad Evans did his part to make him a household name.  Anytime a player is the feature article on the yahoo news ticker he is no longer a sleeper.  The stars seem to be aligning for Thompkins.  No Brandon Lloyd.  No Hernandez.  No Gronk to start to the year.  No Welker (sorta).
The past few years the most fruitful of the Patriot Wr's have been the slot receiver think Welker--this years Amendola.  Here is a list of the best receiving years going back to 2002 from a Patriot WR who was not the slot WR

2002 - Patten: 61/824/5
2003 - Branch: 57/800/3
2004 - Givens: 56/874/3
2005 - Branch: 78/998/5
2006 - Caldwell: 61/760/4
2007- Moss: 98/1500/23
2008 - Injured
2009 - Moss: 83/1260/13
2010 - Branch: 48/706/5
2011 - Branch: 51/700/5
2012 - Lloyd: 74/911/4


Two of those years are not like the others, but I think we can all agree that a Thompkins/Moss comparison might be a bit much.  Brady has taken plenty of "no name" receivers and have made them contributing members to the team and fantasy relevant.  Looking at the numbers I think you can pencil Thompkins in for 60/800/4 which would have been good enough for just outside the top 30 best fantasy WRs in 2012.  So I am sorry Mr. Evans I am going to sell on Kenbrell Thompkins being the reason I win my fantasy league.

Maurice Jones-Drew - Currently on CBSsports the 3 resident fantasy football experts have MJD ranked as the 17th / 17th / and 15th best RB.  I really don't get this one.  Since taking over the reigns in 2009...
2009: 1765/16
2010: 1641/7 (14 games)
2011: 1980/11

2012 - He was on pace for another big year.  Before the injury in his 6th game he was averaging more ypc than any year in his career at 4.8, had accumulated over 500 yards of offense and had 5 TD's to go with it.

I get that he is coming off an injury and is now ancient at 28 years of age but ranking this guy as low as these experts have his borderline criminal. 

Hey, MJD you hear about your sportsline ranking?

I am buying MJD as a top 10 fantasy back this season.

bengals

As an AJ Green owner the previous 2 seasons I have found myself watching my fair share of Bengal ball.  The Bengals were probably just on the cusp of the top 5 trendiest teams coming into 2013, but now with their exposure on HBO's Hard Knocks they are racing up the board.  NFL.com writer Michael Silver actually picked the Bengals to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl only to lose to the trendiest of all teams (as documented in my March 12th blog) -- the Seattle Seahawks.

Vegas odds: O/U 8.5 (-180)

I would assume that with the -180 that the over has been pounded.  Lets take a look at the schedule.

week 1: @ CHI
week 2: vs PIT
week 3: vs GB
week 4: @ CLE
week 5: vs NE
week 6: @ BUF
week 7: @ DET
week 8: vs NYJ
week 9: @ MIA
week 10: @ BAL
week 11: vs CLE
week 12: BYE
week 13: @ SD
week 14: vs INDY
week 15: @ PIT
week 16:  vs MIN
week 17: vs Ravens

Looks like 10-6 to me.

Things I like
- Back 2 back road trips in week 6 and 7 will feature what I expect to be 2 bottom of the half league teams in Bills and Lions.
- 2 home games to end the year is nice as well
- Home games vs GB / NE 
- Late Bye should be beneficial

Things I don't like
- Even with the soft opponents in week 6/7 they are still on the road 4 out of 5 weeks 6-10.  That week 10 match up @ Baltimore is going to be tough.  Not only will it mark their 4th road game in 5 weeks but they have a history of getting beat down in Baltimore.  Since 2000 they have gone 4-9 at Baltimore and have lost their last 3 trips.  I normally don't like betting against Cincy while being under the same roof as brother Trent but Baltimore -3 will be look pretty strong that week.

Cincy's strong suit this season will be the defense.  Upfront they will be as stout as any team in the league with stud Geno Atkins anchoring the line.

The biggest problem with the defense is the safety position.  Not sure who is going to be the starter but I do know this guy is in contention.

I want to spend a little time on the enigma that is Taylor Mays.  

I remember years ago hearing about a 6 -foot-3 230 pound beast who hailed from USC and had a vertical leap of 41 inches, could bench 225 30 times, and ran a 4.32.  You hear stats like that and then see plays like this and this you expect that man to be a grade-A-badass.

And then this video surfaces...

 That most definitely is not how a bad-ass behaves.  Sure, he acts corny and a little strange in this video but I am just going to assume he went ahead and ran through about 3/4 of that squad over the following month.

So far through the first 3 episodes of Hard Knocks he has spent his time talking about how he loves/misses his girlfriend.  Sure, that is a fine past-time but certainly not a behavior that a badass would demonstrate amongst other grown men.

So which T. Mays is it?

The badass?

I love my girlfriend

Speaking of girlfriends congratulations to Giovani Bernard.

Fantasy Outlook

Giovani Bernard vs BJGE

Data collected from the last 1400 mock drafts on fantasy football calculator is showing Gio going on average 44th overall.  On the other hand incumbent running back BJGE is being selected on average 84th overall.

Bernard is definitely the sexy pick.  He has shown some nice explosion and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.  Two things that BJGE does not posses.  I can go on and on but the bottom line is this...

 Until you see the rookie riding dirty with the team owner BJGE is still the man...especially at the goal-line.  I think both guys will be productive.  I anticipate Bernard to have more total yards.  However, my prediction will be although he is going up to 40 picks later BJGE will outscore Bernard.

Dallas Cowboys

I am going to do a quick round up on a few teams that will consist of the teams predicted record.  Also I will highlight a player from each team and rank their value based on their ADP.

First up, my childhood team -- Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys - Vegas O/U 8.5 wins

Being matched up against the putrid AFC west gives them a 3-1 boost out of conference.  For easy figuring lets just say they split 3-3 in the division.  That would mean they would need to find 3 more wins on their schedule against the following.
vs STL -
@ DET -
vs MINN
@ N.O
@ CHI
vs G.B

As usual, Vegas is right on the money in setting this total at 8.5.  I see a pair of losses vs GB and in the dome on SNF vs the Saints. - (quick side note do not ever bet against the saints when they play at home in a prime time game...I am adding that to my cardinal rules of betting.

Also a good rule of thumb is to never bet against a team when hosting their first game after a national disaster has just hit said city.

Back to the Cowboys...

So we have 2 losses vs GB and @ N.O.  On the other hand I think there are 2 wins to be had vs STL and @ DET.  So it all comes down to games vs MINN and @ CHI.  Tough calls.  My gut says 8-8.  If history keeps repeating itself the Boys will be 8-7 going into their week 17 tilt vs Washington.  The Cowboys will need the win to lock up a WC spot...if that is the scenario you can take U 8.5 to the bank.

fan reaction...


Saying 8-8 almost feels like a cop out.  There is a tiny piece of me that thinks this season could be the straw that breaks that camels back; and by camels back I mean Jerry Jones heart---and by break I mean stop.

71? more like 91.  Not sure how many more INTs that heart can take.

Fantasy Outlook:

Dwayne Harris: ADP - 212

After getting no run on offense in the first 9 games of the season Harris finally broke onto the field in certain sets over the final 7 games.  In limited time he racked up 17 / 222 / 1.  He also made some big plays on special teams and has shown game-breaking ability.  If you gave me a piece of paper and said draw your idea of a good looking player it would look pretty close to what you see on the left.  Reports out of big D is that homegrown rookie Terrance Williams is pushing and might even have the edge for the 3rd WR spot.  Keep an eye on their 3rd preseason game and see who is getting 1st team reps.  Even if Williams and Harris end up splitting 3rd WR reps it will only be a matter of time until Miles Austin's hamstrings tweak for about the 4th straight year and then they will both see significant playing time.

I have had a bit of a crush on this guy since his ECU days.  I really think he could do something if given the shot.

Yea so what it was preseason vs backups--big-whoop-wanna-fight-about-it

Only winners get wings

I tried out for this commercial, however I was informed that I did not meet the weight requirement.  I tried the muscle weighs more than fat routine but it wasn't happening.

Usually by mid August reciting the top 10-15 players at each position is something that I could do with great ease.  While I have been doing my homework, there has been something else that has my full attention.

Pittsburgh Pirate fever has been in full swing for a few weeks now and the bandwagon is filling up faster than a 5$ blackjack table at the Rivers.  I can't blame people for being excited.  I don't get on Facebook often but after a Pirate win you can bank on about 1 in 5 posts saying r.t.j.r or something to that effect.  Like I said I can't blame people--it's been 20 years.

Something just rubs me the wrong way about people who didn't suffer through the lean years.  Do names like Pat Mears, Abe Nunez, and Kris Benson mean anything to you?  What about Rob Mack-o-wak?  That should make you smile.  Be proud that you watched many Ian Snell fastballs go flying over the Clemente Wall and by the same token the vaunted Josh Fogg change-up that missed its spot and would suffer a similar fate.  Do you remember the big bat of Brian Bixler?  What about the grand-daddy of them all though--and possibly the lowest moment in the last 20 years belongs to this familiar face...

That's right folks--that is a professional athlete with a mustache painted on his face during an event.

To sum it up go ahead and have the water-cooler talk about the Pirates but make sure to pour a little out for the homies and pay homage to the guys who have been in for the long haul.

Just a few tidbits from the first two weeks of preseason.

- I am getting real tired real fast of hearing the daily report from Jets camp about who will be playing QB.  I think the Jets offense could be historically bad.  It doesn't matter who the QB is.  I think Geno Smith was a nice college QB in a nice system but coming into an offense that lacks any kind of play-maker is going to be a wake up call.  The brand of defense that is played in the NFL is a bit of an upgrade compared to the Baylor Bears.  Their defense is going to win them some ball games and this team could be an Under cash-cow this year.  Back the truck up on Under 6.5 wins.

For old times sake...

Sadly I think this is NYJ best QB option.

- Another QB battle that is wearing on me is the Vick v. Foles match up in Philly.  If they were running a pro-style offense with straight drop back passing there could maybe be a debate.  However, this offense was made for Vick.  It might just be a Chip Kelly smoke show but I am willing to bet my lunch money on Mike Vick lining up under center in week 1 of the season.  My lunch usually consists of 3 value menu items from BK so that wager is roughly $3.18.  Any takers?

- Speaking of bets you can still get under 7.5 on the SD Super Chargers win total this year.  Do not want to put too much stock into 1 half of a preseason game but the Chargers looked awful...

- Almost as as bad as the Oakland Raiders looked.  Matt Flynn might end up working out there but he sure is getting a lot of respect for being Aaron Rodgers back up and having a monstrous game  in a week 17 game vs the Lions 2 years ago.

- The Jacksonville Jaguars could be a team I might try to get behind at some point.  They have some nice weapons in MJD/Shorts/Blackmon.  I like the looks of Denard running around out there too.  I think their defense is pretty close to being good.  As much as I like all the other pieces of the puzzle the most important piece is also the most unreliable in Blaine Gabbert.  I would still feel pretty good about getting on the over 5.

2012 WW player of the year - Cecil Shorts III

- Were there really 60 better NFL prospects than the 61st pick in the 2013 NFL draft?  There were press going around that Lacy was out of shape.  He looked pretty good there and might be just what the Packer run game needed.

- We are 11 days from the greatest weekend of the year -- Draft weekend.