Peyton Manning: Putting the Numbers Into Perspective

Peyton Manning went ahead and put together the greatest statistical season of any QB in NFL history.

A recap of the 2013 season for Manning.

Pass Attempts: 659
Pass Completions: 450
Completion Percentage: 68%
Yards: 5,477*
Touchdowns: 55*
Interceptions: 10
*NFL Records

Growing up Peyton had everyone watching and waiting to see if he would be as good as his old man.  Archie had a HOF worthy college career as well as the honor of being the 2nd overall pick in the 1971 draft.  I think its safe to say that Peyton has handled that pressure and even upstaged his dad by being the #1 pick in the draft 27 years later. 



Some guys handle it better than others.  Me for example, having a father who was enshrined into the FHOF put a tremendous burden on me at a young age.  Yea, I heard the whispers and knew the numbers....55...60...65 hours a week.  At the end of the day I knew I wasn't going to live up the lofty bar he had set--Hell, I couldn't even start a tractor.  I spent my early 2000's  carrying the label of the Ryan Leaf of farming.



As mentioned above Manning's 2013 will be talked about for years to come and might withstand the test of time as the greatest statistical season any QB will ever put up.  With all that said I have a problem with how these numbers came to be.

Why did Manning throw so much in the 4th quarter?
 
First off, Denver creamed teams this year with 6 of their 13 wins coming by 20+ points and 10/13 by double digits.  My question is how can the QB of a team who is usually up by a fairly comfortable margin in the 4th quarter end up leading the league in pass attempts?  The 659 passes he attempted this season not only led the league this year but was good enough for the 6th most in NFL history.  I would be willing to give him a pass here if he racked these numbers up in the first 3 quarters and then handed the ball off in the 4th and ran the clock out like any respectable team does when they are up by 14+ in the 4th quarter.  After some digging it turns out that the 138 passes that he attempted in the 4th quarter accounted for 21% of his total passes and only 7 QB's in the entire league threw more in the 4th than Manning.

  ----Typical Manning fashion on his record breaker, 4:34 left in the 4th QTR / 17 point game.----

How about a run inside the 10?

 When you throw 55 touchdowns there are obviously going to be some shorties mixed in there but Manning made a living off the short TD pass in 2013.
Total Touchdown Passes: 55
Touchdown passes of less than 10 yards: 27
Touchdown passes of less than 5 yards: 18

Peyton has no problem calling his own number when they get close.  This season Manning attempted 51 passes from inside the 10 yard line -- 30 of which came from inside the 5.  To put the in perspective Matthew Stafford ranked 4th with 25 passes attempted inside the 10, or in other-words 1/2 as many attempts as Manning.

Peyton Manning had more touchdowns passes (27) of less than 10 yards than Tom Brady had total TD passes (26).

Peyton Manning's (18) touchdown passes from 5 yards or less was the same number of total TD passes that brother Eli threw.

It's hard to argue with success.  Manning chucking the ball 42 times a game is their best bet to win so maybe I am just being a hater.

Now there is some controversy on if his yardage record will stand.  After watching the video I'm 99.9% sure that it is a lateral, which would give the record back to Brees.  This might be some karma coming back on Manning for all those runs that he checked out of when down inside the 5.

Being an Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas fantasy football owner this season made the excessive amount of throwing enjoyable for me.  However, if you were one of the players that had no piece of the Bronco fantasy cream pie than you probably didn't ask for a Peyton Manning jersey for Christmas and instead maybe this.


 

Black Monday

"Black Monday" - The Monday following week 17 of the NFL season.  A day that has become synonymous with head coaches and other managerial positions get fired.  Most coaches might feel the wrath of Black Monday maybe 2 or 3 times at the most, however; for me it is a yearly dread.

I can't imagine any teams that made the playoffs will be making any changes at the top so of the teams that didn't make the playoffs..

 100% Safe
Bruce Arians - Arizona Cardinals
John Harbaugh - Baltimore Ravens
Mike Tomlin - Pittsburgh Steelers
Marc Trestman - Chicago Bears
Gus Bradley - Jacksonville Jaguars
Jeff Fisher - STL Rams

Not Sleeping Well...But Should Be Safe

Tom Coughlin - NY Giants
Down year this year, but good luck finding someone with a better resume.
-.560 winning %
- 5 playoff berths
- 3 NFC East Championships
- 2  NFC Conf. Championships
- 2 Super Bowl Rings
- 1 permanently frost bitten face


Mike Smith - Atlanta Falcons
I wanted to put him in the top group just based on how good they have been since his arrival.  However, anytime a team losses 8 or their final 10 anything can happen.  I think he gets a pass.

Doug Marrone - Buffalo Bills
"We are going to give C.J. Spiller the ball until he throws up."
-Doug Marrone, Aug. 2013 
CJ Spiller had more than 17 carries in a whopping 3 games so either Doug Marrone is a liar or CJ Spiller has a weak stomach.  Unless your nickname is Chud most coaches will get at least 2 years to show something so he should be safe.  With that said, this hire baffled me from the get go and there are definitely more appealing names on the market than Dougy.

Hey Rex you are probably going to keep your job...

Rex Ryan - New York Jets

I think that the fact that the Jets finished the year the way they did speaks volumes about how the players feel about him.  Everything you hear is how the players love to play for the guy and they showed it winning winning 3 out of 4 to finish the year on the heels of a 3 game losing streak.




Mike Munchak - Tennessee Titans
Didn't get to play with a full deck for most of the season and managed to motivate the team enough to finish the season with 2 wins.

Dennis Allen - Oakland Raiders
Pretty pathetic 8-24 record through 2 seasons.  He came in last year with zero expectations to contend and lived up to those expectations.  I think he will get another year.


Already Fired

Rob Chudzinski - Cleveland Browns
Pretty rare to see an NFL coach go one and done, but that is the case here.  Tough beat for this guy never playing with any consistency at the QB position.  The fact that the 28 times he went for it on 4th down was 9 more than the 4 place team says his aggression might have been a bit much.


Will Be Fired

Schwartz staying classy after a nice road win

Jim Schwartz - Detroit Lions
He has accumulated a record of 29-50.  For those of you that struggle with math or the ability to use a calculator that is a win % of .367.  That combined with the end of the year collapse should be enough to send this guy packing.  Aside from acting like a 16 year old girl and always playing with his hair my lasting memory from this jackass has to be...

Mike Shanahan - From the penthouse to the outhouse in just a year.  I don't disagree with how he handled RG3 down the stretch this season, but I think there is probably some behind the scenes stuff that the public isn't aware of.  Not having a 1st round pick in the upcoming draft isn't doing the new guy any favors either.  The "Shanarat" pic is so nice I had to use it twice.

Probably Get Fired

Greg Schiano - Tampa Bay Bucs 

After the start that Schiano and Bucs had this season for him to just make it through the season is quite an accomplishment.  Anytime a billboard pops up in your city suggesting that you should be fired things aren't good.  He actually had them playing pretty hard for a stretch, but at the end of the day I don't think his "chop wood" style that was so successful when coaching middle class 18-22 year old kids is going to work with full grown adults who also happen to be making high 6 and 7 figures a year.

Joe Philbin - Miami Dolphins

I spoke of a 2 year rule earlier.  Joe has had his 2 years and lost as favorites in week 16 and 17 with a playoff birth on the line.  The sour taste that the brass has in Miami might just put Joey P. in the soup line.

Yes Garrett 3 times...

Jason Garrett - Dallas Cowboys

8-8 for the 3rd straight season.  Losing in a week 17 do-or-die for the 3rd straight season.  I know he isn't the one out there throwing those interceptions at the worst possible times but at the end of the day something needs to change and the head coach position is probably a good place start.

Leslie Frazier - Minnesota Vikings

.387 win % and a one and done wildcard in 2012 just isn't enough in 3 seasons of work in this day and age.  They made some serious moves in the off season / draft to contend this year and 5-10-1 cannot be what Wario...I mean Zygi had in mind. The Vikings will have a new stadium in 2014 and probably a new coach as well.

Some of these guys will be spending their "Black Monday" the way I do.  It usually starts out with a good cry.  From there usually some time spent in a dark room in denial.  Eventually it turns into reminiscing about the good times.  These guys don't have it so bad though they usually only feel the Black Monday pain once or twice in a lifetime.

 

NFL week 15 - Teaser Time

Vegas is always right.  They know exactly what they are doing with each and every point spread that hits the board.  However, if things fall wrong in week 15 this could be a blood-bath for books everywhere.

If I had a dollar for every 6 point teaser that is played tomorrow I would never have to work again.  For the rookies out there a 6 point teaser is when you pick a minimum of 2 (6 point teasers can be played with as many teams as you want with escalating odds) teams and move that teams line 6 points in one direction or the other.  In order to get the bet right both teams must cover.

Lets take a look at the juicy options for tomorrow...the numbers I post will be with the line teased 6 points.

Falcons pk vs Redskins
49ers pk @ Bucs
Seahawks -1 @ Giants
Eagles -1/2 @ Vikings
Saints -1/2 @ Rams
Chiefs pk @ Raiders
Cowboys -1/2 vs Packers

I am sure there will be someone somewhere who plays all 7 of these as one teaser.  A 7 team 6 point teaser pays approx +900 odds.  So for the guy that throws down $100 on this too good to be true option would win $900 dollars.  This surely won't happen but I guarantee that combinations of these teams will be showing up on plenty of 2/3/4 team 6 point teasers.

Confidence meter on these 7 games
1. Chiefs - Should be energized with new life after seeing their hopes for AFC West come back to life with Denver losing Thursday night.

2. Eagles - Same thing with the Cowboys losing on MNF.  They are in the heat of a division race and I can't see them slipping up vs a potentially Adrian Petersonless Vikings

3. 49ers - 2nd best team in the NFC starting to play some good ball.  That defense vs Glennon should be enough.

4. Seahawks - Best team in the NFC.  The loss in SF last week should serve as a wake up call

5. Falcons - Skins are a mess I could see this team quitting if they get behind early

I actually like the first 5 of this and might throw a few bucks on it just for sport....a 5 team pays +400

6. Cowboys - Can't trust that defense even against Flynn.

7. Saints - On the road, in a dome but rams have been tough.

There aren't many days that Vegas books lose money, but if 1 or 2 of these teams don't lose there are going to be a lot of tickets getting cashed...

Mike the Rat

Not going to go into any length with the main topics that have taken over ESPN but just a quick offering on them.

- All you need to know about Mike Shanahan is that if you type on google "Mike Shanahan loo.... one of the first things to pop up is...looks like a rat.
Even with his rat like characteristics I think more is being made of this than what is actually going on.  The facts are that RG3 has been sacked 24 times in their last 5 games.  Everyone is saying how ridiculous of a move this is and how it makes zero sense.  Let's pretend that RG3 plays this week and suffers a season ending injury of any kind; an injury that eats into a good portion of his off-season.  Then its a conversation about why was Shanahan running him out there when there was major protection issues among other things.  It really is a no win situation for him at this point.

-All you need to know about Marc Trestman is that he attempted a 47 yard fg in overtime on SECOND DOWN.  I guess I understand his logic.  I mean after all Robbie Gould was basically automatic from that distance.  Over the last 5 years from 45-49 yards Gould was connecting at an INCREDIBLE rate of 65% (13-20).  Even if he makes the kick I still say its stupid to settle for a 47 yard fg.  For this reason alone I hope the Bears don't make the playoffs....

Wide Right - Might have been good from 3 yards closer.

....but now there is a new reason.  Maybe and actually probably more than likely it is just because I am a Josh McCown fantasy owner, but I am not a big fan of making the switch back to Cutler at this juncture.  Cases can be made for both guys, but at the end of the day pretty much all of the numbers point to McCown.  I know that he is a career back up and at 34 is not the future in Chicago, but I have a feeling the Bear faithful might be thinking what might have been.  Besides you need some fire power on offense when your defense is giving up 157 yards a game on the ground.  To put that in perspective of how bad that is the next worse team is 22 ypg better.

The Monte Kiffin Roast

Monte Kiffin - 292 years old

Older always isn't necessarily wiser.  As is the case with Monte Kiffin.
After doing a quick check on his age I noticed he was born on Feb 29th.  Being the noble man that Kiffin is he only counts the once every 4 years that his birthday lands on to his actual age.  Sure, it is easy to pile on a guy after allowing 45 points and 500 yards to Ivan Drago -- I mean Josh McCown in sub zero weather.  The facts are he hasn't really had any success since his hay-day with the Bucs back when he was young enough to see the field from the booth.  I guess I can't blame Jerry Jones for hiring him.  I mean take a good look at that face...how could you say no?

 When Josh McCown was warned at halftime that the offensive barrage his team was putting up could have negative effects on the ancient Kiffin's health his response was simple...

Week 13 Round Up

Another Sunday in the books.  After submerging myself in everything football for the past 12 hours I have a few things I want to get off my chest.

Random Thoughts

- Refs suck
- Andy Dalton won today, but will never win big
- I am glad Robbie Gold missed that 47 yard fg in overtime.  That is what Trestman gets for settling for that.
- Just think how happy the owner is who started the trio of Gordon / Jeffery / Decker
- Cam Newton is impossible to sack / stop at the goal line
- As predicted, Geno Smith is awful
- The Kool-Aid man (Andy Reid) handled the last 2:10 of that game very poorly.  How does your best player not get a single touch?
- The Colts don't impress me.  I am going to take a moment to pray daily that the Chiefs end up matched up with them Wild Card Weekend.  Ohhh I picture it already.  Colts 4th seed / Chiefs 5th seed.  Chiefs -3.5 @ Indy......all in.  Week 14 match up Colts @ Bengals will go a long way in deciding who is 3 and who is 4 seed.
- Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl. This isn't an overreaction the MNF beat down it was in my 10 predictions for 2013 and although many of those predictions are pretty awful looking this one is looking good (missed the losses, but was close on Rams / Texans.)  When the lights get bright in that stadium like they were tonight and early in the season vs SF they cannot be beat.
- The NFL helmet rule is stupid.  I get the safety aspect but the implementation is horrible.  The Bell play in the Steeler game at the goal line should have been a TD.  It really needs to be changed to a continuation of where the player lands if he is one his way to the ground.  I feel like I can be about as unbiased as possible when it came to that particular play as A. I bet on the Ravens and B. I do not own Bell in any leagues.

NFL Rules Committee: Please use this play as an example...

Selling 2 AFC Teams...

Sell: Indianapolis Colts -  I never thought I would say that a 51 year old WR is the difference between a team being good and average but I am going to say that is the case with the Reggie Wayne-less Indy Colts.  Since his injury:
W @ Texans 27-24
L vs Rams 8-38
W @ Titans 30-27
L vs Cardinals 11-40
W vs Titans 22-14
Nothing very impressive there.  Got blown out twice, beat Ryan Fitzpatrick twice, and got very lucky to beat a 2 win Texan's Team.

Sell: Cincinnati Bengals - They actually have the formula to win big by being able to run the ball, having AJ Green and playing tough defense.  Their run defense in the early part of the season was especially nasty, however; since the injury to the big stud Geno Atkins their front is not quite as formidable.  At the end of the day though if I have said it once I have said it 100 times this year.  Andy Dalton is terrible.  His stats make him look so much better than he actually is.  As an AJ Green owner since he has entered the league I have watched enough of Dalton to know what he really is.  After thinking about it for a minute the best description I can come up with is "a poor mans Joe Flacco."

Late and behind..perfect location for an out route

Doin work on the move outside the pocket

Dalton has the Bengals in a really tough situation because he has won games and taken them to playoffs in 2 of 3 seasons.  I am by no means a talent evaluator but through 3 years I have not seen anything that makes me think he can be anything more than a solid qb who will make a few splash plays each week as well as a few terrible ones...see above.  It could be worse Bengal fans, getting to watch your team lose wild card weekend is 1 more game than fans of 20 other teams get to watch.  Before I completely bury him I do want to leave myself an out just in case "The Poor Mans Joe Flacco" falls on a horse shoe in January -- after all Joe Flacco did win a Super Bowl last year.