SB break down

It is getting real close now.  I can almost taste the wing sauce the will be splattered from ear to ear on my strong, chiseled jaw line.  The docket is almost set for Sunday.  I know where I will be watching the game.  I know what I will be eating.  I know what I will be drinking (can't risk my sugar getting low on such a monumental evening.)  Yet, sadly enough I do not know what side I want to get behind for the game.

When the line came out Sunday night at Ravens +5 my first feeling was too many points.  I am guessing that was a common feeling across the board and Raven money must have came in early as the line dropped quickly to 4, and has since settled at 3.5 at most places.  My opinion is that 3.5 will be all the lower it goes.  I would not be surprised to see it close at 4 or 4.5.

What would the line be if it wasn't a neutral site game?  I have always heard that home field is worth about 3 points.  There is an interesting article here on the worth of home field advantage and how it varies place to place (Balt / SF rank 1 & 2 in HFA).  Although I put very little stock into anything that happened in the 1980's/90's in relation to today's football games, I do think there is some good info there.  Using his numbers for HFA it would look like this.

SF @ Baltimore = **Baltimore -1
Baltimore @ SF = SF -7.5

**Sidetrack:
...This would be assuming that Colin Kaepernick did not set the QB record for rushing yards in a game the previous week in a dominating win.  Combine that with the Ravens needing a 48 yard fg in the closing seconds to avoid blowing a 20 point second-half lead at home to a rookie QB.  However, when you do get that sort of combination of things a line can go completely hay-wire to what HFA worth should be.  This is done to match the public perception--like we saw in SF @ ATL.   SF -4.5 fit the bill to meet public perception, draw even action, and when the smoke cleared SF won the game by 4 points.

Back to the HFA lines.  If I was browsing through a full slate of Sunday games I would not be rejoicing over either line and would move right along and look for a better spot.  That won't cut it this Sunday though.  Anyone that regularly takes games is not just going to "pass" on the Super Bowl because they think it is an evenly matched game with a sharp line.  There has to be an edge somewhere.

There are plenty of edges and angles that benefit both teams.  Here are a few:

-Under John Harbaugh the Ravens have played in 11 games (5 season openers / 5 bye weeks / 1 1st round bye) in which he has had more than a week to prepare for the opponent.
Record: 11 - 0 with an average margin of victory of 15ppg.

-Familiarity: The 49ers just played in the dome back in week 12 of the regular season.  While I am trying to keep this section based on fact I would believe that fast track would benefit SF as well.

-Joe Flacco is the 6th QB in history to have at least 8 Touchdown passes with 0 interceptions in the post-season.  The previous 5 went on to win the Super Bowl (and win SB MVP).

-Kicking Game: Akers: 9/19 on attempts over 40+ yds / Tucker 14/17 on attempts over 40+ yds

-Common Opponents: 2 common opponents: Pats / Giants - 5 total games of data
----Ravens: 3-0 SU / 2-1 ATS -- SF 1-1 SU / 1-1 ATS

-Stats: Ravens offense: 16 total / 10 scoring -- defense: 17  total / 12 scoring

                                                       -49ers offense: 11 total / 11 scoring -- *defense: 3 total / 2 scoring

*Defense wins Championships: 39 of 46 Super Bowl Champions had a top 10 defense. (once again not a fan of anything that hasn't at least impacted this decade but interesting nonetheless)

-Wild Card Weekend to Super Bowl: In the last 15 years, 10 teams that played WC weekend went on to make the Super Bowl.  Those teams are 10-0 ATS and 7-3 SU. (same as above)

As mentioned above you can dig up stats on stats on trends that will support either side.  Anyone with half a brain can make a convincing case for either side in any game ever.

Risk a little, to win a lot.  Lets assume this game line closes at SF -4 and a money line of -170.

The play: Ravens +4 / SF money line -170 (estimate but 170 would be very close)

For easy figuring lets just pretend we are trying to win $100 on each bet.  It would look like this.
Ravens +4: risk 110 to win 100 -- SF money line: risk 170 to win 100.

If Ravens win outright +100 / -170 = -70 - worst case scenario
If SF wins by 5 or more +100 / -110 = -10
If SF wins by exactly 4 +100 / push = +100
If SF wins by 1-3 +100 / +100 = +200

How often does the spread come into play?  Out of the 256 regular season games played this year the spread came into play 43 times (16.8%)

Super Bowl?  In the last 13 years the spread came into play 4 times (30.8%)

This obviously would not be profitable long-term, but in what many are expecting to be a very close game it could work in this spot.

Whatever you do this weekend; do not show up at this guy's house and root for the 49er's.

warning: 11 f-bombs in this gem

Super Bowl - Poll

Since 2005 I have done well picking Super Bowl winners against the spread.  The good news is the only game that I missed was Patriots vs Giants.  The bad news, that match up occurred twice since 05' and I was on the wrong side both times.  I just can't bring myself to bet against Belichick/Brady in the big game.  People who have--cashed in.

2001 NE 20 STL 17 line +14 ATS (W)
2003 NE 32 CAR 29 line -7 ATS (L)
2004 NE 24 PHI 21 line -7 ATS (L)
2007 NE 13 NYG 17 line -12 ATS (L)
2011 NE 17 NYG 21 line -3 ATS (L)

1-4 vs the spread in the big game has emptied the wallets of many Patriot fans.  Hopefully those Patriot fans were also Bama fans and had the extra dough to dump.

Belichick needs to take notes from this guy on how to cover a championship game spread

I am just going to assume that anyone reading this has at least a loose grasp idea of how a point-spread works when betting on sports.

Disclaimer: Betting on sports in an illegal activity unless otherwise done in Nevada and to a limited extent in Delaware, Montana, and Oregon.  When it comes to online betting there is some gray area but it can be said no person has ever been charged with a crime pertaining to using an online service to bet on sports.

I pay very little attention to politics.  I do not think I have ever actually engaged in a conversation regarding politics, but I have to say I think I would enjoy sitting down to a dinner with New Jersey Governor  Chris Christie.  Not because I want to talk about his stance on any political matter, but  judging by his stature I could easily convince him to eat at a Ponderosa.

It will be interesting to see how the poll turns out.  A strong case can made for either side in this game.  It is hard to go against a team that no weapon shall prosper against.

I want to get my thoughts out on Ray Lewis.  I can understand why people don't like him.  Yea, he has had 6 children with 4 different women, and yea, he was acquitted in a murder case. The big man upstairs can judge him on that.  I want to judge him on his 17 NFL seasons.  While statistically he has had a very productive career I am more intrigued with how he acts before, during, and after the game.  I won't argue with anyone who says, "Ray Lewis knows where the cameras and microphones are at."  I have no way of knowing and certainly can't prove it, but my feeling is that Ray Lewis acts the same exact way even when the spotlight isn't on him.  I was at the Ravens home opener this season on MNF and watching Ray Lewis during pregame was worth the price of admission.  Some of what he does is for show, but at the end of the day I do not think there are many in the NFL that care as much as Ray Lewis.

Remember to vote in the poll and if you are feeling ambitious drop a comment on why.

3 players to keep an eye on + props

$93,899,840
That is the amount of money that was *legally* wagered on the 2012 Super Bowl in Nevada.  The American Gaming Association estimates that number represents only 1.5% of the actual money wagered on the big game. Quick math: ~ 9 billion dollars is the amount of money wagered on the Super Bowl.

They have prop bets on just about everything in the Super Bowl.  From the coin flip to what color the Gatorade will be that gets dumped on the winning coach (wish I would have been aware of this prop back when my buddy Andy Ferguson was a manager for the Steelers in 2009 when they won it all).  You might have a gambling problem to play something like that though.  I prefer something with a bit more class -- something like this.  Nothing beats the feeling of a little sweat on your brow and a pounding heart as your staring at your iPhone stop-watch as the singer is holding that final note brraaaaaaaaaaaaaaavve.  As you will see in the article the oddsmakers are ridiculously accurate in setting the over/under.  The past two years Kevin Bradley has set the o/u with 1 second of the closing time.  On second thought, maybe I do have a problem.

Jacoby Jones

 Current Prop: Longest Kick Return O/U 36.5 yards. 

Jones led the league in average yards per kick return at a 30.7 yard clip.  Throw in 3 combined return TD's and the fact that he was on the receiving end of "The Rocky Mountain Rainbow" makes Jones  a pretty nice off season addition by the Ravens.

The problem with Jones in this game is the leg of David Akers.  During the season Akers had a touch back rate of 48%.  Keep in mind that his home games are played in the often windy San Fran bay area.  Akers played 5 games in a dome this year including one in New Orleans.  Here is how Akers performed in domes this season.

# of kickoffs / # of kickoffs to reach end zone / # of touch-backs

@Minnesota - 4 / 4 / 1

@Arizona - 5 / 5 / 5

@New Orleans - 6 / 6 / 1

@STL - 5 / 5 / 4

@ATL - 5 / 5 / 5

This took me some time to dig up but this is some very good info.  David Akers has kicked off in a dome 25 times this year.  ALL 25 of these kicks have reached the end zone.  9 of the 25 were returned.  San Francisco's kick coverage unit is strong.  ZERO of the 9 returned kicks exceeded a return of more than 36.5 yards.

Play: UNDER Jacoby Jones longest kick return 36.5 yards.

Randy Moss

Current Props: Catches O/U 2.5  / Yards O/U 34.5

I don't think anyone really expected Moss to comeback this year and set the league on fire.  The  28 / 434 / 3 he put up this season should not have been to far off anyone's' projections.  He came back for 1 reason.  To get a ring.  This play showed me that he still has something left in the tank.  Whatever is left in that tank will be emptied come Super Bowl Sunday.

Since week 16 when Mario Manningham went down with a nasty knee injury Moss has been the clear cut #2 WR in the passing game.
# of snaps / % of snaps / targets / receptions / yards

wk 16 @ SEA 42 / 74% / 6 / 3 / 44

wk 17 vs AZ 37 / 54% / 4 / 2 / 28

wc vs GB 40 / 50% / 4 / 2 / 25

conf. vs ATL 36 / 65% / 4 / 3 / 46

Moss has been on the field for at least 50% of the teams offensive snaps and has received at least 4 targets in all the games since sliding into the #2 spot.  My gut tells me we will see flashes of the 2007 Moss.

Play: OVER Randy Moss catches 2.5

Torrey Smith
Current Props: Catches O/U 3.5 / Yards O/U 67.5 / Long O/U 28.5

The ultimate BOOM or BUST.  Torrey Smith was one of the most frustrating / most fun players I have ever owned in fantasy.  He is such a hard guy to throw on the bench because the big game potential is always there.  What makes it entertaining to have Smith in your line-up is the fact that before that final whistle is blown everyone knows he is getting a few deep shots.  When he makes good on these shots the big fantasy game happens.  Ask Champ Bailey about that deep ball.

For the numbers below I am not going to count week 15 or week 17.  In week 15 he was hurt and only played into the 2nd quarter and week 17 the Ravens pulled their starters after a few drives.  So I will count 14 regular season and 3 playoff games.  Here are the facts.

Games with more than 3.5 catches: 7 / 17 - 41%
Games with more than 67.5 yards: 6 / 17 - 35%
Games with long catch over 28.5: 8 / 17 - 47%

Judging by the numbers it seems the oddsmakers have inflated every prop on Torrey Smith.  Playing the UNDER on these numbers over the course of a season would probably yield a positive gain.  However, in a one game scenario anything can happen.  Something that I am about 95% sure that will happen is that Flacco will bomb about 2-3 40+ yard passes in Torrey's direction.  Based on that, it makes it very hard to play any kind of under.  If you can find a shop that will let you parlay props; a very solid correlation play would be long catch over parlayed with yards over.  If Flacco connects on one of those bombs both overs could hit on one play.  Which would illicit this reaction from over players.

This young man just found out that the Atlanta Falcon 2012 NFC Conference Champion T-shirts are arriving tomorrow.

Play: Torrey Smith longest reception OVER 28.5 yards.

There are 100+ different ways to win or lose money on the Super Bowl.  I have to say though after doing countless hours of research and simulations I think the absolute best bet on the board is TAILS on the coin flip....or at least I'm 50% sure.

Super Bowl Story Lines Not Named Harbaugh / Ray Lewis

Since 9:30 PM on Sunday night when the match up of San Fransisco 49ers vs Baltimore Ravens was set in stone for Super Bowl XLVII I have heard the term "Harbowl" a few too many times.

Wait a second...

There is breaking news...something is going across the bottom line. Whaaaaat??? Ray Lewis is retiring???

While they are both great stories, even your most casual of NFL fans are well aware of them.  For some reason the ESPN family of networks continue to beat this horse.  You will notice I did not use the term "dead horse"...yet.  Unfortunately we are still 10 days from kick off and over the next 10 days that horse is in for some cruel and unusual punishment.

Here are a few story lines that deserve mention.

Randy Moss / Ed Reed - A couple of first ballot HOF's battling for their first ring.
Randy Moss is by far the most decorated active player still in the league with out a ring.
Moss leads all active players in:
receiving yards (3 all time)
receiving tds (2 all time)
total tds (4 all time)
-While records are meant to be broken his 17 receiving TD's as a rookie is one that I don't think will ever go down.  In the history of the league two rookie wr's made it to 13 (1952 / 1978) but that is still a far cry from 17.

Ed Reed's accolade list isn't as long, however; he has done okay for himself.  Being in the top 10 in both career INT's and career INT return TD's is nothing to sneeze at.  Throw in that he is the all time INT return yardage leader and he will have his ticket to Canton punched 5 years after he calls it quits.

Is Joe Flacco Elite?
Not a big fan of the word, however it is a word that is constantly used to describe QB play at the NFL level.  I don't know what the qualifications are to be considered elite?  Should it be win/loss? stats? playoff win/loss? rings?  Probably a combination of all things should weighted when considering throwing around the all powerful "elite" term.  I will say the fact that he just won his NFL record 6th road playoff game and having an 8-0 td/int ratio helps his case.

Ravens having two weeks to prepare for Kaepernick.
I think this is something to consider when looking at this game.  Vick and RG3 were the only duel threat Qb's that Baltimore faced this season.  They lost both of these games in very close fashion.  Having the additional week to dissect the zone read and get the assignments down could prove huge.

Can David Akers be trusted?
First let me say that Mr. Akers isn't exactly one of my most favorite people right now.  With the point spread being SF -4.5 vs ATL last week the 28-24 left me feeling quite unsatisfied.  That 38 yard FG that Akers missed sure would have helped though.  Akers has now missed at least 1 field goal attempt in 7 of his last 10 games.  I think a serious question needs to be asked.

What is The Sunday Edge?

Anytime your life is consumed by a concept with the word "fantasy" in it chances are you live in your parent's basement and get queasy at the thought of a conversation with a real life female.  I currently reside in my mother-in-law's basement and the only thing that makes me queasy (besides vegetables) is the thought of my wife delivering our child on a Sunday during football season.  While on the topic of my wife; I need to give her a thank you for allowing me to spend all day in front of the television every Sunday during football season--as well as Monday night, Thursday night, and the rare Saturday game.

When and how did it begin?  My first football memory happened January 17th 1993.  I had just turned 8 years old just two weeks prior.

*Quick sidetrack* - My first actual memory must have occurred when I was about 5 years old.  I remember giving my youngest brother Trent an off the couch pile-driver (my pap pap was a big WWF fan and I must have picked the move up from watching wrestling at his house)  I vividly remember exactly where in the house I was and how everyone came running in and screaming at me--ah the good ol' days.

.....Anyways my brother Spence is a Dallas Cowboy fan.  He was having a party at his house to watch the game.  I remember there being a lot of people there.  It was the Cowboys vs the 49ers in the NFC championship.  I obviously knew nothing about the game but since my brother was rooting for the Cowboys I figured I would too.  It took me awhile to track down this clip, but here it is.  My first football memory: 4:50-5:30

Funny hearing John Madden and Pat Summerall on the call.  Summerall sounded half dead back in 93.'  Listening to him do the play by play a few years back in the Cotton Bowl was just brutal.  This  wise sage agrees with me:

Got a bit off track there.  Anyways that Alvin Harper catch was my first football memory.  I rode the momentum from that Cowboy win into the Super Bowl where they stomped the Bills.  From there on I was hooked on football; more specifically Cowboy's Football.

The following season I was in 3rd grade.  Each Monday Ms. Creps had us write something that we did over the weekend in our journals.  Each week I would write up a recap of the Cowboy's game complete with scores and stats.  They went on to win the Super Bowl again that year.

The following year they did not make it to the Super Bowl however, this year I got my first taste of gambling and football mixed together. Hello Super Bowl "Squares." My brother Ryan offered me a split on a square he bought for $5.  Sure enough the numbers we needed came through and hit the 3rd quarter score.  Beginners luck I guess, because that was the first and only square I have ever won.

1996 was a tough year for Steeler Country here in Bedford, PA as they matched up with my Cowboys in Super Bowl XXX.  What did you expect though when this guy was your QB?

Anyone who thinks it would be a sweet idea to have a card of them deflating a football with their bare hands lacks good decision making skills. I actually own this card (not autographed) if anyone has a shrine of Neil O'donnell out there and is missing this crown jewel.

I was like any kid.  My favorite teams were the best teams.   For me it was the Cowboys in football and the Chicago Bulls in basketball.  By this time I was 11 years old and the Cowboys had just won their 3rd Super Bowl in a 4 year span.  I was starting to get annoyed by how everyone was jumping on board with the Cowboys.  I will admit that I jumped on the bandwagon but I was only 8 years old, I didn't know any better.  I still liked the Cowboys but the bandwagon effect soured me.  It was okay though I was about to be introduced to fantasy football.

 I had some exposure to fantasy football through a league that both my older brothers were in.  I would watch players that they had on their teams and root for them.  A few names that I remember rooting for off the top of my head were Brett Favre, Jerry Rice, Chris Carter, Terry Allen, Rob Moore, Yancey Thigpen, Barry Foster,  Mark Chmura, Napoleon Kaufman, and his backfield running-mate Harvey "long-neck" Williams.  After realizing how much fun I had rooting for players I realized that I needed to get my own team.

The idea was hatched to start a league for the 1998 season.  Its  participants would be my three brothers Spence, Ryan, Trent, and a buddy from school--fellow football enthusiast Shaun Styer.  At this point Trent was only going into 5th grade and had yet to fully develop his fantasy mind so he tagged up with one of my other friends Chad Shoemaker (ask Chad or Trent their best pick from that year and I guarantee they will remember.)  A five team league by today's standards would be viewed as a joke but it was a good start for us.  We wrote our names on poker chips to decide the order that we picked (a method we still use today.)  Luckily, my name was pulled first.  Terrell Davis was my first pick.  I can't remember any other players on my team from that first year but thanks to the 2225 yards and 23 touchdowns from Davis I won the league.  This was a familiar site in 1998.

I just wrapped up my 14th year of playing fantasy football.  I sometimes wonder if there will ever come a day when I won't react in pure jubilation to one of my players scoring.  Considering I know there is 227 days / 5,466 hours / 328,010 minutes until the first Sunday of the 2013 season I would say probably not.

So what is The Sunday Edge?  Eventually I hope it will bloom into a spot where people can share thoughts and ideas on anything football. I think the 1047 words, pictures, and video you have viewed up to this point is a strong preview of what I hope to provide.  I will offer up lots of thoughts, opinions, and analysis on fantasy football, and although my wallet would discourage me from this I also enjoy handicapping games and attempting to pick winners against the spread.  It is border line embarrassing the amount of time I spend researching/thinking about football.  I figured why not set up a platform for others to enjoy the fruits of my labor.