That is the amount of money that was *legally* wagered on the 2012 Super Bowl in Nevada. The American Gaming Association estimates that number represents only 1.5% of the actual money wagered on the big game. Quick math: ~ 9 billion dollars is the amount of money wagered on the Super Bowl.
They have prop bets on just about everything in the Super Bowl. From the coin flip to what color the Gatorade will be that gets dumped on the winning coach (wish I would have been aware of this prop back when my buddy Andy Ferguson was a manager for the Steelers in 2009 when they won it all). You might have a gambling problem to play something like that though. I prefer something with a bit more class -- something like this. Nothing beats the feeling of a little sweat on your brow and a pounding heart as your staring at your iPhone stop-watch as the singer is holding that final note brraaaaaaaaaaaaaaavve. As you will see in the article the oddsmakers are ridiculously accurate in setting the over/under. The past two years Kevin Bradley has set the o/u with 1 second of the closing time. On second thought, maybe I do have a problem.
Jacoby Jones Jones led the league in average yards per kick return at a 30.7 yard clip. Throw in 3 combined return TD's and the fact that he was on the receiving end of "The Rocky Mountain Rainbow" makes Jones a pretty nice off season addition by the Ravens.
The problem with Jones in this game is the leg of David Akers. During the season Akers had a touch back rate of 48%. Keep in mind that his home games are played in the often windy San Fran bay area. Akers played 5 games in a dome this year including one in New Orleans. Here is how Akers performed in domes this season.
# of kickoffs / # of kickoffs to reach end zone / # of touch-backs
@Minnesota - 4 / 4 / 1
@Arizona - 5 / 5 / 5
@New Orleans - 6 / 6 / 1
@STL - 5 / 5 / 4
@ATL - 5 / 5 / 5
This took me some time to dig up but this is some very good info. David Akers has kicked off in a dome 25 times this year. ALL 25 of these kicks have reached the end zone. 9 of the 25 were returned. San Francisco's kick coverage unit is strong. ZERO of the 9 returned kicks exceeded a return of more than 36.5 yards.
Play: UNDER Jacoby Jones longest kick return 36.5 yards.
Randy Moss
Current Props: Catches O/U 2.5 / Yards O/U 34.5
I don't think anyone really expected Moss to comeback this year and set the league on fire. The 28 / 434 / 3 he put up this season should not have been to far off anyone's' projections. He came back for 1 reason. To get a ring. This play showed me that he still has something left in the tank. Whatever is left in that tank will be emptied come Super Bowl Sunday.
Since week 16 when Mario Manningham went down with a nasty knee injury Moss has been the clear cut #2 WR in the passing game.
# of snaps / % of snaps / targets / receptions / yards
wk 16 @ SEA 42 / 74% / 6 / 3 / 44
wk 17 vs AZ 37 / 54% / 4 / 2 / 28
wc vs GB 40 / 50% / 4 / 2 / 25
conf. vs ATL 36 / 65% / 4 / 3 / 46
Moss has been on the field for at least 50% of the teams offensive snaps and has received at least 4 targets in all the games since sliding into the #2 spot. My gut tells me we will see flashes of the 2007 Moss.
Play: OVER Randy Moss catches 2.5
Torrey SmithCurrent Props: Catches O/U 3.5 / Yards O/U 67.5 / Long O/U 28.5
The ultimate BOOM or BUST. Torrey Smith was one of the most frustrating / most fun players I have ever owned in fantasy. He is such a hard guy to throw on the bench because the big game potential is always there. What makes it entertaining to have Smith in your line-up is the fact that before that final whistle is blown everyone knows he is getting a few deep shots. When he makes good on these shots the big fantasy game happens. Ask Champ Bailey about that deep ball.
For the numbers below I am not going to count week 15 or week 17. In week 15 he was hurt and only played into the 2nd quarter and week 17 the Ravens pulled their starters after a few drives. So I will count 14 regular season and 3 playoff games. Here are the facts.
Games with more than 3.5 catches: 7 / 17 - 41%
Games with more than 67.5 yards: 6 / 17 - 35%
Games with long catch over 28.5: 8 / 17 - 47%
Judging by the numbers it seems the oddsmakers have inflated every prop on Torrey Smith. Playing the UNDER on these numbers over the course of a season would probably yield a positive gain. However, in a one game scenario anything can happen. Something that I am about 95% sure that will happen is that Flacco will bomb about 2-3 40+ yard passes in Torrey's direction. Based on that, it makes it very hard to play any kind of under. If you can find a shop that will let you parlay props; a very solid correlation play would be long catch over parlayed with yards over. If Flacco connects on one of those bombs both overs could hit on one play. Which would illicit this reaction from over players.
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| This young man just found out that the Atlanta Falcon 2012 NFC Conference Champion T-shirts are arriving tomorrow. |
Play: Torrey Smith longest reception OVER 28.5 yards.
There are 100+ different ways to win or lose money on the Super Bowl. I have to say though after doing countless hours of research and simulations I think the absolute best bet on the board is TAILS on the coin flip....or at least I'm 50% sure.
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