SB break down

It is getting real close now.  I can almost taste the wing sauce the will be splattered from ear to ear on my strong, chiseled jaw line.  The docket is almost set for Sunday.  I know where I will be watching the game.  I know what I will be eating.  I know what I will be drinking (can't risk my sugar getting low on such a monumental evening.)  Yet, sadly enough I do not know what side I want to get behind for the game.

When the line came out Sunday night at Ravens +5 my first feeling was too many points.  I am guessing that was a common feeling across the board and Raven money must have came in early as the line dropped quickly to 4, and has since settled at 3.5 at most places.  My opinion is that 3.5 will be all the lower it goes.  I would not be surprised to see it close at 4 or 4.5.

What would the line be if it wasn't a neutral site game?  I have always heard that home field is worth about 3 points.  There is an interesting article here on the worth of home field advantage and how it varies place to place (Balt / SF rank 1 & 2 in HFA).  Although I put very little stock into anything that happened in the 1980's/90's in relation to today's football games, I do think there is some good info there.  Using his numbers for HFA it would look like this.

SF @ Baltimore = **Baltimore -1
Baltimore @ SF = SF -7.5

**Sidetrack:
...This would be assuming that Colin Kaepernick did not set the QB record for rushing yards in a game the previous week in a dominating win.  Combine that with the Ravens needing a 48 yard fg in the closing seconds to avoid blowing a 20 point second-half lead at home to a rookie QB.  However, when you do get that sort of combination of things a line can go completely hay-wire to what HFA worth should be.  This is done to match the public perception--like we saw in SF @ ATL.   SF -4.5 fit the bill to meet public perception, draw even action, and when the smoke cleared SF won the game by 4 points.

Back to the HFA lines.  If I was browsing through a full slate of Sunday games I would not be rejoicing over either line and would move right along and look for a better spot.  That won't cut it this Sunday though.  Anyone that regularly takes games is not just going to "pass" on the Super Bowl because they think it is an evenly matched game with a sharp line.  There has to be an edge somewhere.

There are plenty of edges and angles that benefit both teams.  Here are a few:

-Under John Harbaugh the Ravens have played in 11 games (5 season openers / 5 bye weeks / 1 1st round bye) in which he has had more than a week to prepare for the opponent.
Record: 11 - 0 with an average margin of victory of 15ppg.

-Familiarity: The 49ers just played in the dome back in week 12 of the regular season.  While I am trying to keep this section based on fact I would believe that fast track would benefit SF as well.

-Joe Flacco is the 6th QB in history to have at least 8 Touchdown passes with 0 interceptions in the post-season.  The previous 5 went on to win the Super Bowl (and win SB MVP).

-Kicking Game: Akers: 9/19 on attempts over 40+ yds / Tucker 14/17 on attempts over 40+ yds

-Common Opponents: 2 common opponents: Pats / Giants - 5 total games of data
----Ravens: 3-0 SU / 2-1 ATS -- SF 1-1 SU / 1-1 ATS

-Stats: Ravens offense: 16 total / 10 scoring -- defense: 17  total / 12 scoring

                                                       -49ers offense: 11 total / 11 scoring -- *defense: 3 total / 2 scoring

*Defense wins Championships: 39 of 46 Super Bowl Champions had a top 10 defense. (once again not a fan of anything that hasn't at least impacted this decade but interesting nonetheless)

-Wild Card Weekend to Super Bowl: In the last 15 years, 10 teams that played WC weekend went on to make the Super Bowl.  Those teams are 10-0 ATS and 7-3 SU. (same as above)

As mentioned above you can dig up stats on stats on trends that will support either side.  Anyone with half a brain can make a convincing case for either side in any game ever.

Risk a little, to win a lot.  Lets assume this game line closes at SF -4 and a money line of -170.

The play: Ravens +4 / SF money line -170 (estimate but 170 would be very close)

For easy figuring lets just pretend we are trying to win $100 on each bet.  It would look like this.
Ravens +4: risk 110 to win 100 -- SF money line: risk 170 to win 100.

If Ravens win outright +100 / -170 = -70 - worst case scenario
If SF wins by 5 or more +100 / -110 = -10
If SF wins by exactly 4 +100 / push = +100
If SF wins by 1-3 +100 / +100 = +200

How often does the spread come into play?  Out of the 256 regular season games played this year the spread came into play 43 times (16.8%)

Super Bowl?  In the last 13 years the spread came into play 4 times (30.8%)

This obviously would not be profitable long-term, but in what many are expecting to be a very close game it could work in this spot.

Whatever you do this weekend; do not show up at this guy's house and root for the 49er's.

warning: 11 f-bombs in this gem