bengals

As an AJ Green owner the previous 2 seasons I have found myself watching my fair share of Bengal ball.  The Bengals were probably just on the cusp of the top 5 trendiest teams coming into 2013, but now with their exposure on HBO's Hard Knocks they are racing up the board.  NFL.com writer Michael Silver actually picked the Bengals to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl only to lose to the trendiest of all teams (as documented in my March 12th blog) -- the Seattle Seahawks.

Vegas odds: O/U 8.5 (-180)

I would assume that with the -180 that the over has been pounded.  Lets take a look at the schedule.

week 1: @ CHI
week 2: vs PIT
week 3: vs GB
week 4: @ CLE
week 5: vs NE
week 6: @ BUF
week 7: @ DET
week 8: vs NYJ
week 9: @ MIA
week 10: @ BAL
week 11: vs CLE
week 12: BYE
week 13: @ SD
week 14: vs INDY
week 15: @ PIT
week 16:  vs MIN
week 17: vs Ravens

Looks like 10-6 to me.

Things I like
- Back 2 back road trips in week 6 and 7 will feature what I expect to be 2 bottom of the half league teams in Bills and Lions.
- 2 home games to end the year is nice as well
- Home games vs GB / NE 
- Late Bye should be beneficial

Things I don't like
- Even with the soft opponents in week 6/7 they are still on the road 4 out of 5 weeks 6-10.  That week 10 match up @ Baltimore is going to be tough.  Not only will it mark their 4th road game in 5 weeks but they have a history of getting beat down in Baltimore.  Since 2000 they have gone 4-9 at Baltimore and have lost their last 3 trips.  I normally don't like betting against Cincy while being under the same roof as brother Trent but Baltimore -3 will be look pretty strong that week.

Cincy's strong suit this season will be the defense.  Upfront they will be as stout as any team in the league with stud Geno Atkins anchoring the line.

The biggest problem with the defense is the safety position.  Not sure who is going to be the starter but I do know this guy is in contention.

I want to spend a little time on the enigma that is Taylor Mays.  

I remember years ago hearing about a 6 -foot-3 230 pound beast who hailed from USC and had a vertical leap of 41 inches, could bench 225 30 times, and ran a 4.32.  You hear stats like that and then see plays like this and this you expect that man to be a grade-A-badass.

And then this video surfaces...

 That most definitely is not how a bad-ass behaves.  Sure, he acts corny and a little strange in this video but I am just going to assume he went ahead and ran through about 3/4 of that squad over the following month.

So far through the first 3 episodes of Hard Knocks he has spent his time talking about how he loves/misses his girlfriend.  Sure, that is a fine past-time but certainly not a behavior that a badass would demonstrate amongst other grown men.

So which T. Mays is it?

The badass?

I love my girlfriend

Speaking of girlfriends congratulations to Giovani Bernard.

Fantasy Outlook

Giovani Bernard vs BJGE

Data collected from the last 1400 mock drafts on fantasy football calculator is showing Gio going on average 44th overall.  On the other hand incumbent running back BJGE is being selected on average 84th overall.

Bernard is definitely the sexy pick.  He has shown some nice explosion and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.  Two things that BJGE does not posses.  I can go on and on but the bottom line is this...

 Until you see the rookie riding dirty with the team owner BJGE is still the man...especially at the goal-line.  I think both guys will be productive.  I anticipate Bernard to have more total yards.  However, my prediction will be although he is going up to 40 picks later BJGE will outscore Bernard.