Wild Card Recap / Divisional Picks

Folks, I know I'm a bit tardy on a recap from the weekend.  I also know that the two people who read the preview were dying for the recap. I told my wife at dinner tonight it would be out soon and then called my brother to let him know as well.

Still juiced from the bullet-proof research on the monster day that Jamaal Charles was about to have I found myself unable to sleep.  I woke up very early that morning, it was 11:00 and Emily had prepared a nice brunch for me.  I then proceeded to partake in two fantasy playoff drafts.  The playoff draft is a completely different animal than a regular draft, but that is another story for another day.  I was happy with the teams I had assembled and actually began to get pumped for the playoffs.

NOOOOOOO!!!!!

.......Annnnnnnndddd 6 plays into the 2013-2014 postseason it was done.  I like to cry bad beat as much as the next guy, but this really was a tough one to take.

- In the 2 drafts I had earlier that day I was of course lucky enough to draw the 2nd and 3rd picks.  I used both of those picks on Charles.  I was happy at the time, but why couldn't my name have been drawn 4th or later...JC would have probably been off the board.

-I rarely bet on props.  Seeing Charles's rush yards for the game at O/U 93 was enough to get me to make my first propositional wager of the season.

- 329 - That is the number of times that JC handled the ball this year with out getting injured. So it figures his 3rd touch of the post season would be his last.

Ok, time to refocus.  I still have a nice bet on KC at +1.5 and a Chief win would give Charles a week to recover and get back out there for their next game. 31-10 at the half, the texts start rolling in about what a good call this was and how easy it was.  The beat-down ensued early in the 3rd with Luck's first pass being picked off and KC finding itself in the end zone a few plays later and now an almost lock-city 38-10 lead.

At this point according to ESPN's Stats and Information the Colts had exactly a 0.9% chance to win the game at this point.  The bottles were popped, and it was time to look ahead to the saints game

NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

After that play I quickly corked my  2 liter o' cola and resided to the fact that KC was done.  The only thing that kept me from literally losing my mind was that the +1.5 was still $.

As right as I was about the Saints going out on the road and getting the job done, I was that much wrong and them some about Andy Dalton getting his first playoff win.  Although, I shouldn't say I was surprised with the outcome after writing this gem on Dalton a month ago.  There is plenty of blame to go around in Cincinnati but anyone who has watched their fair share of Bengal ball knows where it should be placed.  As mentioned in the article above the Bengals are destined for mediocrity.  Although if they lose their defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer mediocre might be something to aim for.

If I actually believed it I would have included offensive coordinator Jay Gruden as a major loss also.  However, any coordinator who lets Dalton chuck it 37 times with a clear conscious is clearly not an asset to the team.
Here are some numbers that hopefully the next O-coordinator pays attention to.

He is getting what he deserves for being a bully as a kid

45 Pass Att. vs Steelers W 20-10
42 Pass Att. @ Browns L 17-6
40 Pass Att. @ Bills W 27-24
53 Pass Att. @ Miami L 22-20
51 Pass Att. @ Ravens L 20-17
44 Pass Att. @ Steelers L 30-20
51 Pass Att. vs Chargers L 27-10

That's 2-5 anytime Andy throws it more than 40 times.


The Pack and 9'ers game was pretty entertaining despite the elements.  Sunday we saw the Kaepernick that San Fran fans should hope to see more of.  When its win or go home Kap is going to use those legs a lot more than he did in the regular season.  Over the course of the 16 regular season games he only ran for more than 55 yards twice--on Sunday he had 98.

I hope this guy at least took Jordy out to dinner first.

On to the divisional round...

Seahawks -7.5 vs Saints
Going to wait to officially lock it in, but if I see this guy present in that always ruckus crowd I will be playing the Seahawks.  The weather forecast for this game does not line up well for the Saints (heavy rain 25-30mph wind).  I am not going to forget that it took New Orleans 46 seasons to win their first road playoff game. Asking them to do it back to back weeks is a tall order--especially in Seattle.  With the weather under 45 is also worth a look.  SEA 24 N.O 13

Patriots -7 vs Colts
Maybe I am just being a hater, but I am also being factual when I say that Alex Smith and the KC Chiefs hung 44 points on the Colts IN Indy.  T.Y Hilton is a nice role player, but last week he feasted on a banged up secondary on a fast track.  Outdoors he did not have a single game where he had more than 5 catches, and only 1 game in which he had more than 50 yards receiving.  I think Billy Ball will have a good game plan to keep him from going off.  I see this one as the biggest blow out of the weekend.  Pats -7 / over 51  NE 40 Indy 20


Bonus Bet: T.Y Hilton UNDER 5.5 catches / UNDER 75.5 yds.  There will obviously be an inflation on his numbers for this week based on last weeks performance.  However, the logic on this one is pretty simple.  He has yet to achieve either of those numbers in a game outdoors yet this year.

Panthers +1.5 vs 49ers
I am a big time believer in the Panthers defense. In week 10 these two got together for an old fashioned shoot-out that ended up 10-9.  In that game Carolina held the Niners to a grand total of 151 yards of offense.  Asking the defense to replicate a performance like that is hardly realistic, but the Panthers have played tough at home all year going 7-1 with their lone loss coming in week 1 vs Seattle in a very tight game.

At home the defense has been especially stingy allowing point totals of:

12, 0, 15, 10, 20, 6, 20, 13.  I don't see Kap making enough throws to extend drives in this one and the Carolina defense is fast enough to neutralize his legs.  At the end of the day I trust Cam to make a few more plays and lead them to the W. Would lean very hard to the under 41.5 in this one as well.  CAR 20 SF 16

Broncos -8.5 vs Chargers
Enough of the Charger love please.  Let's all take a trip back in the time machine to 2 weeks ago when everything broke just right for them and all that stood between them and a playoff berth was Chase Daniel and a good portion of the KC second stringers.  In case you aren't a Steelers fan you might not remember how the game shook out but let's just say that the Chargers were very lucky to win.  This week they will face Peyton Manning, who unlike Andy Dalton will not be handing out candy like it was Halloween, and more importantly if interceptions were every referred to as candy.  The point is Manning > Dalton.  The Chargers can be frustrating.  It is very hard to get them off the field on offense.  They can go on some very time consuming possessions which is the exact recipe that we saw in week 15 to beat Denver.  I see the came playing out as Denver jumping ahead quick, which will get SD out of the run on 1st, run on 2nd, convert 3rd and 3 mentality.  No strong opinion on the total in this one but I definitely trust Manning to get this one done DEN 34 SD 17

Solid 6 point Teaser: Pats -1 / Broncos -2.5.

Good luck.