Wild Card Weekend

Happier when there are 16 games in an NFL weekend, but going to have to settle for 4 of them this weekend.  Should be some pretty good games with LV setting 3 of the 4 games at a FG or less point spread.

Chiefs @ Colts (-1.5)
 Well my prayers have been answered.  I have been licking my chops for this potential match up since I wrote about it in week 13.  Indy going into KC and laying a 23-7 beating in week 16 has given bookmakers no choice but to favor Indy at home for this match up.

So what wrong wrong week 16 for KC?

 TURNOVERS

 -  4 Turnovers (1 int  / 3 fumbles) - 3 fumbles is a very flukey stat. Sadly, they actually fumbled 6 times in that game but recovered 3 of them.

Turnover breakdown from other 15 games.
0 Turnovers: 8
1 Turnover:  5
2 Turnovers: 1
3 Turnovers: 1


In 13/16 games KC had 1 or less turnover, so it does not take a mathematician to answer the following question....

What is more likely to occur?
A. The Chiefs will have 1 or less turnover?
B. The Chiefs will have 2 or more turnovers?

TIME OF POSSESION

- KC held the ball for a whopping 22/60 minutes vs Indy in week 16.  In there other 15 games they won the time of possession battle (30+ minutes) in 10 of 15 games.

7 POINTS???

- The 7 points that KC scored in week 16 was their lowest point total of any week.  Their next lowest total for the year was 17.  I guess when you only have the ball for 22 minutes and turn it over 4 times it's going to be hard to get any points on board...also....



3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS

- Week 16 vs Indy the Chiefs converted on 3rd downs at a sickening 12% clip.
- The NFL average for 3rd down conversions is 38%
- KC came in below league average with a 35% conversion rate and something that actually does concern me -- a league worst 29.5% on the road.

While it won't come as any surprise if KC does struggle a bit on 3rd downs there is a remedy for success....

FEEEED 25!!!!

While the above stats are all eye-soars for KC backers the following will be the gleam that we will go after.

Please Andy...25 carries for 25

- In week 16 KC ran the ball 20 times for 155 yards - - That's 7.8 yards per carry.
- 7.8 yards per carry is a full 1.5 yards more than they ran for in any other game this season.
- Jamaal Charles week 16: 13 carries: 106 yards - - 8.1 yards per carry.

Indy Rush Defense
 - Indy gives up 125 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry both of which rank 26th in the league.

How has J.C. fared in previous match-ups vs Indy...
2010: 16 - 87 - 5.4 ypc
2012: 22 - 226 - 10.3 ypc
2013: 13 - 106 - 8.1 ypc

Here is what Indy will be dealing with.  There are a few runs from his 2012 carving in this package.

I can't envision any scenario that Charles doesn't have a monster game.  To top it all off the dome of Lucas Oil Stadium will offer one of the faster tracks in the league for him to get loose on.

So although KC struggles mightily on the road in 3rd down conversion if they hand it to JC on 1st and 2nd down I don't think they will have to worry about 3rd down.

I believe the Kool-Aid man will be on full parade tomorrow post game - - KC takes it down 28-20

Tired now so just some quick thoughts on the other 3 games.

Saints +2.5 @ Philly
- Philly is the hot team right now but keep in mind that they are 1-3 vs playoff teams with the lone win coming against an Aaron Rogerless Packers.
- Can't get the image of Matt Cassle torching the Eagles secondary for 48 points in a few weeks ago.
- Saints put the road demons to bed in this one....31-24

Bengals -7 vs Chargers
- Bengals undefeated at home and blowing teams out in the jungle.
- San Diego super efficient on offense and usually own time of possession.
- Andy Dalton is sure to do some things that will make Bengal fans very nervous but the defense will be there to bail him out.
- Marvin Lewis is 0-4 in his 4 career playoff games, this is the year he breaks the streak 30-13

49ers -3 @ Packers
- Weather calling for -50 wind-chill....and they wonder why they are having a hard time selling out this game.  I mean I like paying 300 bucks to sit in -50 degree weather as much as the next guy but come on.
- This brings me to a thought that I had earlier this year.  With the type of money that is tossed around in the NFL I think it should be mandated that all NFL teams have retractable roofs.  Playing in that kind of weather is just ridiculous.  The thought originally hit me after the Lions / Philly snow game

Unable to kick XP because of 4 inches of snow on the ground

Wind sucks too..

Fog Bowl - Not a good seat in the house

Maybe that is just my fantasy football mind coming out in that complaint.  I am sure for the casual fan something like that Detroit / Philly game was entertaining to watch....for a Matt Stafford / Calvin Johnson owner - -a nightmare.

As for the -50 degree SF / GB game I think this is the toughest one to pick a winner.  Once again weather brings in an unpredictability that I am just not a fan of.  There is no way to practice for this type of thing so I expect a low scoring tight game with the better defense coming out on top in the end...20-14

Should be a fun weekend...