Peyton Manning: Putting the Numbers Into Perspective

Peyton Manning went ahead and put together the greatest statistical season of any QB in NFL history.

A recap of the 2013 season for Manning.

Pass Attempts: 659
Pass Completions: 450
Completion Percentage: 68%
Yards: 5,477*
Touchdowns: 55*
Interceptions: 10
*NFL Records

Growing up Peyton had everyone watching and waiting to see if he would be as good as his old man.  Archie had a HOF worthy college career as well as the honor of being the 2nd overall pick in the 1971 draft.  I think its safe to say that Peyton has handled that pressure and even upstaged his dad by being the #1 pick in the draft 27 years later. 



Some guys handle it better than others.  Me for example, having a father who was enshrined into the FHOF put a tremendous burden on me at a young age.  Yea, I heard the whispers and knew the numbers....55...60...65 hours a week.  At the end of the day I knew I wasn't going to live up the lofty bar he had set--Hell, I couldn't even start a tractor.  I spent my early 2000's  carrying the label of the Ryan Leaf of farming.



As mentioned above Manning's 2013 will be talked about for years to come and might withstand the test of time as the greatest statistical season any QB will ever put up.  With all that said I have a problem with how these numbers came to be.

Why did Manning throw so much in the 4th quarter?
 
First off, Denver creamed teams this year with 6 of their 13 wins coming by 20+ points and 10/13 by double digits.  My question is how can the QB of a team who is usually up by a fairly comfortable margin in the 4th quarter end up leading the league in pass attempts?  The 659 passes he attempted this season not only led the league this year but was good enough for the 6th most in NFL history.  I would be willing to give him a pass here if he racked these numbers up in the first 3 quarters and then handed the ball off in the 4th and ran the clock out like any respectable team does when they are up by 14+ in the 4th quarter.  After some digging it turns out that the 138 passes that he attempted in the 4th quarter accounted for 21% of his total passes and only 7 QB's in the entire league threw more in the 4th than Manning.

  ----Typical Manning fashion on his record breaker, 4:34 left in the 4th QTR / 17 point game.----

How about a run inside the 10?

 When you throw 55 touchdowns there are obviously going to be some shorties mixed in there but Manning made a living off the short TD pass in 2013.
Total Touchdown Passes: 55
Touchdown passes of less than 10 yards: 27
Touchdown passes of less than 5 yards: 18

Peyton has no problem calling his own number when they get close.  This season Manning attempted 51 passes from inside the 10 yard line -- 30 of which came from inside the 5.  To put the in perspective Matthew Stafford ranked 4th with 25 passes attempted inside the 10, or in other-words 1/2 as many attempts as Manning.

Peyton Manning had more touchdowns passes (27) of less than 10 yards than Tom Brady had total TD passes (26).

Peyton Manning's (18) touchdown passes from 5 yards or less was the same number of total TD passes that brother Eli threw.

It's hard to argue with success.  Manning chucking the ball 42 times a game is their best bet to win so maybe I am just being a hater.

Now there is some controversy on if his yardage record will stand.  After watching the video I'm 99.9% sure that it is a lateral, which would give the record back to Brees.  This might be some karma coming back on Manning for all those runs that he checked out of when down inside the 5.

Being an Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas fantasy football owner this season made the excessive amount of throwing enjoyable for me.  However, if you were one of the players that had no piece of the Bronco fantasy cream pie than you probably didn't ask for a Peyton Manning jersey for Christmas and instead maybe this.


 

Black Monday

"Black Monday" - The Monday following week 17 of the NFL season.  A day that has become synonymous with head coaches and other managerial positions get fired.  Most coaches might feel the wrath of Black Monday maybe 2 or 3 times at the most, however; for me it is a yearly dread.

I can't imagine any teams that made the playoffs will be making any changes at the top so of the teams that didn't make the playoffs..

 100% Safe
Bruce Arians - Arizona Cardinals
John Harbaugh - Baltimore Ravens
Mike Tomlin - Pittsburgh Steelers
Marc Trestman - Chicago Bears
Gus Bradley - Jacksonville Jaguars
Jeff Fisher - STL Rams

Not Sleeping Well...But Should Be Safe

Tom Coughlin - NY Giants
Down year this year, but good luck finding someone with a better resume.
-.560 winning %
- 5 playoff berths
- 3 NFC East Championships
- 2  NFC Conf. Championships
- 2 Super Bowl Rings
- 1 permanently frost bitten face


Mike Smith - Atlanta Falcons
I wanted to put him in the top group just based on how good they have been since his arrival.  However, anytime a team losses 8 or their final 10 anything can happen.  I think he gets a pass.

Doug Marrone - Buffalo Bills
"We are going to give C.J. Spiller the ball until he throws up."
-Doug Marrone, Aug. 2013 
CJ Spiller had more than 17 carries in a whopping 3 games so either Doug Marrone is a liar or CJ Spiller has a weak stomach.  Unless your nickname is Chud most coaches will get at least 2 years to show something so he should be safe.  With that said, this hire baffled me from the get go and there are definitely more appealing names on the market than Dougy.

Hey Rex you are probably going to keep your job...

Rex Ryan - New York Jets

I think that the fact that the Jets finished the year the way they did speaks volumes about how the players feel about him.  Everything you hear is how the players love to play for the guy and they showed it winning winning 3 out of 4 to finish the year on the heels of a 3 game losing streak.




Mike Munchak - Tennessee Titans
Didn't get to play with a full deck for most of the season and managed to motivate the team enough to finish the season with 2 wins.

Dennis Allen - Oakland Raiders
Pretty pathetic 8-24 record through 2 seasons.  He came in last year with zero expectations to contend and lived up to those expectations.  I think he will get another year.


Already Fired

Rob Chudzinski - Cleveland Browns
Pretty rare to see an NFL coach go one and done, but that is the case here.  Tough beat for this guy never playing with any consistency at the QB position.  The fact that the 28 times he went for it on 4th down was 9 more than the 4 place team says his aggression might have been a bit much.


Will Be Fired

Schwartz staying classy after a nice road win

Jim Schwartz - Detroit Lions
He has accumulated a record of 29-50.  For those of you that struggle with math or the ability to use a calculator that is a win % of .367.  That combined with the end of the year collapse should be enough to send this guy packing.  Aside from acting like a 16 year old girl and always playing with his hair my lasting memory from this jackass has to be...

Mike Shanahan - From the penthouse to the outhouse in just a year.  I don't disagree with how he handled RG3 down the stretch this season, but I think there is probably some behind the scenes stuff that the public isn't aware of.  Not having a 1st round pick in the upcoming draft isn't doing the new guy any favors either.  The "Shanarat" pic is so nice I had to use it twice.

Probably Get Fired

Greg Schiano - Tampa Bay Bucs 

After the start that Schiano and Bucs had this season for him to just make it through the season is quite an accomplishment.  Anytime a billboard pops up in your city suggesting that you should be fired things aren't good.  He actually had them playing pretty hard for a stretch, but at the end of the day I don't think his "chop wood" style that was so successful when coaching middle class 18-22 year old kids is going to work with full grown adults who also happen to be making high 6 and 7 figures a year.

Joe Philbin - Miami Dolphins

I spoke of a 2 year rule earlier.  Joe has had his 2 years and lost as favorites in week 16 and 17 with a playoff birth on the line.  The sour taste that the brass has in Miami might just put Joey P. in the soup line.

Yes Garrett 3 times...

Jason Garrett - Dallas Cowboys

8-8 for the 3rd straight season.  Losing in a week 17 do-or-die for the 3rd straight season.  I know he isn't the one out there throwing those interceptions at the worst possible times but at the end of the day something needs to change and the head coach position is probably a good place start.

Leslie Frazier - Minnesota Vikings

.387 win % and a one and done wildcard in 2012 just isn't enough in 3 seasons of work in this day and age.  They made some serious moves in the off season / draft to contend this year and 5-10-1 cannot be what Wario...I mean Zygi had in mind. The Vikings will have a new stadium in 2014 and probably a new coach as well.

Some of these guys will be spending their "Black Monday" the way I do.  It usually starts out with a good cry.  From there usually some time spent in a dark room in denial.  Eventually it turns into reminiscing about the good times.  These guys don't have it so bad though they usually only feel the Black Monday pain once or twice in a lifetime.

 

NFL week 15 - Teaser Time

Vegas is always right.  They know exactly what they are doing with each and every point spread that hits the board.  However, if things fall wrong in week 15 this could be a blood-bath for books everywhere.

If I had a dollar for every 6 point teaser that is played tomorrow I would never have to work again.  For the rookies out there a 6 point teaser is when you pick a minimum of 2 (6 point teasers can be played with as many teams as you want with escalating odds) teams and move that teams line 6 points in one direction or the other.  In order to get the bet right both teams must cover.

Lets take a look at the juicy options for tomorrow...the numbers I post will be with the line teased 6 points.

Falcons pk vs Redskins
49ers pk @ Bucs
Seahawks -1 @ Giants
Eagles -1/2 @ Vikings
Saints -1/2 @ Rams
Chiefs pk @ Raiders
Cowboys -1/2 vs Packers

I am sure there will be someone somewhere who plays all 7 of these as one teaser.  A 7 team 6 point teaser pays approx +900 odds.  So for the guy that throws down $100 on this too good to be true option would win $900 dollars.  This surely won't happen but I guarantee that combinations of these teams will be showing up on plenty of 2/3/4 team 6 point teasers.

Confidence meter on these 7 games
1. Chiefs - Should be energized with new life after seeing their hopes for AFC West come back to life with Denver losing Thursday night.

2. Eagles - Same thing with the Cowboys losing on MNF.  They are in the heat of a division race and I can't see them slipping up vs a potentially Adrian Petersonless Vikings

3. 49ers - 2nd best team in the NFC starting to play some good ball.  That defense vs Glennon should be enough.

4. Seahawks - Best team in the NFC.  The loss in SF last week should serve as a wake up call

5. Falcons - Skins are a mess I could see this team quitting if they get behind early

I actually like the first 5 of this and might throw a few bucks on it just for sport....a 5 team pays +400

6. Cowboys - Can't trust that defense even against Flynn.

7. Saints - On the road, in a dome but rams have been tough.

There aren't many days that Vegas books lose money, but if 1 or 2 of these teams don't lose there are going to be a lot of tickets getting cashed...

Mike the Rat

Not going to go into any length with the main topics that have taken over ESPN but just a quick offering on them.

- All you need to know about Mike Shanahan is that if you type on google "Mike Shanahan loo.... one of the first things to pop up is...looks like a rat.
Even with his rat like characteristics I think more is being made of this than what is actually going on.  The facts are that RG3 has been sacked 24 times in their last 5 games.  Everyone is saying how ridiculous of a move this is and how it makes zero sense.  Let's pretend that RG3 plays this week and suffers a season ending injury of any kind; an injury that eats into a good portion of his off-season.  Then its a conversation about why was Shanahan running him out there when there was major protection issues among other things.  It really is a no win situation for him at this point.

-All you need to know about Marc Trestman is that he attempted a 47 yard fg in overtime on SECOND DOWN.  I guess I understand his logic.  I mean after all Robbie Gould was basically automatic from that distance.  Over the last 5 years from 45-49 yards Gould was connecting at an INCREDIBLE rate of 65% (13-20).  Even if he makes the kick I still say its stupid to settle for a 47 yard fg.  For this reason alone I hope the Bears don't make the playoffs....

Wide Right - Might have been good from 3 yards closer.

....but now there is a new reason.  Maybe and actually probably more than likely it is just because I am a Josh McCown fantasy owner, but I am not a big fan of making the switch back to Cutler at this juncture.  Cases can be made for both guys, but at the end of the day pretty much all of the numbers point to McCown.  I know that he is a career back up and at 34 is not the future in Chicago, but I have a feeling the Bear faithful might be thinking what might have been.  Besides you need some fire power on offense when your defense is giving up 157 yards a game on the ground.  To put that in perspective of how bad that is the next worse team is 22 ypg better.

The Monte Kiffin Roast

Monte Kiffin - 292 years old

Older always isn't necessarily wiser.  As is the case with Monte Kiffin.
After doing a quick check on his age I noticed he was born on Feb 29th.  Being the noble man that Kiffin is he only counts the once every 4 years that his birthday lands on to his actual age.  Sure, it is easy to pile on a guy after allowing 45 points and 500 yards to Ivan Drago -- I mean Josh McCown in sub zero weather.  The facts are he hasn't really had any success since his hay-day with the Bucs back when he was young enough to see the field from the booth.  I guess I can't blame Jerry Jones for hiring him.  I mean take a good look at that face...how could you say no?

 When Josh McCown was warned at halftime that the offensive barrage his team was putting up could have negative effects on the ancient Kiffin's health his response was simple...

Week 13 Round Up

Another Sunday in the books.  After submerging myself in everything football for the past 12 hours I have a few things I want to get off my chest.

Random Thoughts

- Refs suck
- Andy Dalton won today, but will never win big
- I am glad Robbie Gold missed that 47 yard fg in overtime.  That is what Trestman gets for settling for that.
- Just think how happy the owner is who started the trio of Gordon / Jeffery / Decker
- Cam Newton is impossible to sack / stop at the goal line
- As predicted, Geno Smith is awful
- The Kool-Aid man (Andy Reid) handled the last 2:10 of that game very poorly.  How does your best player not get a single touch?
- The Colts don't impress me.  I am going to take a moment to pray daily that the Chiefs end up matched up with them Wild Card Weekend.  Ohhh I picture it already.  Colts 4th seed / Chiefs 5th seed.  Chiefs -3.5 @ Indy......all in.  Week 14 match up Colts @ Bengals will go a long way in deciding who is 3 and who is 4 seed.
- Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl. This isn't an overreaction the MNF beat down it was in my 10 predictions for 2013 and although many of those predictions are pretty awful looking this one is looking good (missed the losses, but was close on Rams / Texans.)  When the lights get bright in that stadium like they were tonight and early in the season vs SF they cannot be beat.
- The NFL helmet rule is stupid.  I get the safety aspect but the implementation is horrible.  The Bell play in the Steeler game at the goal line should have been a TD.  It really needs to be changed to a continuation of where the player lands if he is one his way to the ground.  I feel like I can be about as unbiased as possible when it came to that particular play as A. I bet on the Ravens and B. I do not own Bell in any leagues.

NFL Rules Committee: Please use this play as an example...

Selling 2 AFC Teams...

Sell: Indianapolis Colts -  I never thought I would say that a 51 year old WR is the difference between a team being good and average but I am going to say that is the case with the Reggie Wayne-less Indy Colts.  Since his injury:
W @ Texans 27-24
L vs Rams 8-38
W @ Titans 30-27
L vs Cardinals 11-40
W vs Titans 22-14
Nothing very impressive there.  Got blown out twice, beat Ryan Fitzpatrick twice, and got very lucky to beat a 2 win Texan's Team.

Sell: Cincinnati Bengals - They actually have the formula to win big by being able to run the ball, having AJ Green and playing tough defense.  Their run defense in the early part of the season was especially nasty, however; since the injury to the big stud Geno Atkins their front is not quite as formidable.  At the end of the day though if I have said it once I have said it 100 times this year.  Andy Dalton is terrible.  His stats make him look so much better than he actually is.  As an AJ Green owner since he has entered the league I have watched enough of Dalton to know what he really is.  After thinking about it for a minute the best description I can come up with is "a poor mans Joe Flacco."

Late and behind..perfect location for an out route

Doin work on the move outside the pocket

Dalton has the Bengals in a really tough situation because he has won games and taken them to playoffs in 2 of 3 seasons.  I am by no means a talent evaluator but through 3 years I have not seen anything that makes me think he can be anything more than a solid qb who will make a few splash plays each week as well as a few terrible ones...see above.  It could be worse Bengal fans, getting to watch your team lose wild card weekend is 1 more game than fans of 20 other teams get to watch.  Before I completely bury him I do want to leave myself an out just in case "The Poor Mans Joe Flacco" falls on a horse shoe in January -- after all Joe Flacco did win a Super Bowl last year.

Been a minute...

Slacked off the first 12 weeks of the NFL season but I am throwing 4 fingers up and looking to finish the final "quarter" of the season strong.

The Suprises
KC Chiefs 9-2.  My read was good on this team, but I don't think anyone saw them sitting at 9-2 and tied for the division lead going down the final stretch. 

Is the Kool-Aid man aka Andy Reid really the difference? OH YEAAH

Steelers / Ravens 5-6.  About a month ago 5-6 seemed like a dream for Steelers fans after the awful start they had.  Their Thanksgiving day match up is basically going to be a playoff game with the winner still alive in the division / wildcard.

Texans / Falcons 2-9.  It would not have been far-fetched for this to be a potential Super Bowl match up in preseason predictions.  Instead of hoisting Lombardi one of these two might be making the first pick in the 2014 draft.
 I wouldn't mind seeing the Texans end up with the first pick to see if they would go Clowney.  They

need a franchise qb but the duo of Watt / Clowney up front would be hard to pass up.  On the bright side Gary Kubiak is still alive.  Weird time to have a mini-stroke with his team being up 21-3 going to half.  I am guessing while he was at the hospital the doctors did not let him watch the second half collapse or his heart might have went ahead and done the same.


The AFC in general is very weak.  Aside from the division leaders (Pats / Bengals / Colts / Broncos) the Chiefs are the only other team in the entire conference with a winning record.  Most notably, the AFC south is especially terrible.  The division leading Colts having a net points on the year of +3. Sadly for them the 2nd place Titans actually have the best net point total in +5 for the season.  To put that in perspective the best conference in football in my opinion is the NFC West.  Here is there net point difference for the year.
Seahawks +127
49ers +90
Cardinals +31
Rams +11

Ok that was a good warm up, will try to keep this thing rolling for the rest of the season.

What I learned week 1...

Can we get some rule changes please? With the current set-up its impossible to play pass defense.
-3 Qbs threw for 400+ yards in week1
-13 Qbs threw for 299+ yards in week 1
-More TD passes in week 1 then any other week in NFL history.

The outcome for RB's was not so good.
-2 RB's ran for more than 100+ yards
-1 RB has more than 25 carries

I learned that a team can score 3 seconds into a game.  Sadly, that was the high-point for the Steelers.







I re-learned that Blaine Gabbert is not an NFL QB.  He doesn't look the part in any aspect.  Here are some of the low-lights from his 26 career games played.

A weekly site at Jags games--Gabbert going turtle mode.

- completed less than 50% of his passes in 8/26 games
- has had a + TD/INT ratio in 9/26 games
- Here is my favorite one. In an era where passing the ball is easier than ever Blaine Gabbert has thrown for over 250 yards in only 2/26 games.

- Terrelle Pryor is going to make some plays this year.  As a Darren McFadden owner I watched just about every offensive play from that game.  I don't know if the Raiders will win very many games, but Pryor is going to be fun to watch.

If he goes all 16 I think we have a new record holder for qb rush yards

The guy taking that stiff arm isn't exactly weak either...



- Speaking of things that will be fun to watch.  I am jealous of all Lesean McCoy owners.  Not just McCoy but I think the Eagles will be playing in some of the most entertaining games this season.  If you play the OVER on all Eagle games this year you will make money.  Although it looks like Vegas is already adjusting with the total sitting at 55.5 this week.

-My SB pick the Seattle Seahawks looked pretty mediocre in week 1.  Although, it is expected for a west coast team coming east for a 1:00 kick to always look a little flat.  I think we will learn a lot in the SNF game this week when SF goes into Seattle for a huge early season game.

10 predictions for 2013

I did something like this a few years ago.  It was fun to read at the end of the year.

1.  Mike Vick  reemerges as a top 5 fantasy QB.  Sure he is a year older and a step slower but I really do believe this new offense will rejuvenate his career.  Keep in mind we are only 2 seasons removed from this gem.

2.  Larry Fitzgerald had exactly 0 catches over 40 yards last year, and only 2 catches over 30.  I find this hard to believe for one of the best jump ball guys of all time.  I think Carson gives Fitz a spark this year.  I am saying he triples his TD production this year which will get him to 12TDS.


3.  10th - Frank Gore (1212) / 3rd Marshawn Lynch (1590) / 2nd Alfred Morris (1610).  Quick what do all three of these runners have in common?................................That's right they played in spread offenses and all three of them finished in the top 10 in rushing yards--two of which finished in the top 3.  My bold prediction for this year is that none of these 3 RBs finish top 10 in rush yards this year.  I think the Redskins offense takes the biggest step back and "The Butler" rushes for 600 yards less than he did in 2012.

4.  Matt Stafford plays all 16 games.  He attempts 770 passes this season and ends the year with 5,555 yards to set the single season passing record.  The Lions win 6 games.

Good for you Matt.  Good for you.

5.  Quick---which NFL WR has had 1550+ receiving yard seasons 3 out of the past 5 years...if you said Andre Johnson then...

Lets not forgot that Andre has been known to get a little banged up.  My prediction that although he was drafted in the top 10 at his position in probably every league he will not finish in the top 20 at his position.  On the other hand....

6. I can't believe I didn't get my boy Cecil Shorts in any leagues.  The timing just never worked out.  Anyways I am saying Cecil finishes top 15 fantasy WR.

7.  I need a Dez Bryant prediction in here somewhere.  It has been no secret the tear he went on to finish the 2012 season.  Over his final 8 games he racked up 880 yards and 10 TD's.  I trust that you can multiply that X 2 to figure out what he could do over a full season.  20 TDs might be a bit much but I am going to say he leads the way in fantasy production for WR's in 2013.

8.  Enough WR predictions.  Let's talk about the bread and butter of fantasy football.  The running backs.  Anyone who knows anything about fantasy football knows that on average from year to year the top 10 Rb's from the previous year will have approximately 5 names repeat in the top 10 the following year.  This trend has been pretty consistent over the years.  So last years top 10.....
- Peterson
- Foster
- Dougie Martin
- Lynch
- Morris
- Rice
- Spiller
- Charles
- Ridley
- Gore
So when the smoke clears from this season you can bank on 5 of those names being back on the list again next year and the other 5 being somewhere outside the top 10.  Really a whole article could be dedicated to this sole prediction.
The 5 that stay...
Peterson
Foster
Lynch - I know I picked him to finish outside top 10 in rushing yards the he will score enough TD's to keep him top 10 total.
Spiller
Charles

The new blood
McCoy
Trent Richardson
Matt Forte
Steven Jackson
M.J.D

Ladies and Gentleman your top 10 rb's of 2013.


9.  I have seen quite a few Seahawk Superbowl predictions.  I hate to step right in line but I really do think its the best team that has the best home-field advantage in the league.  I think they win all their home-games this year.  They go 13-3 with losses coming against Houston upset special at the Rams and at SF in week 14.

10.  Lets get weird with the last one...Lets say Peyton Manning sets the all time record for TD passes in a single game with 7.  Guys with the last name Thomas will be on the business end of 4 of them / Wes Welker 2 of them and the brother of Reche "Headlights" Caldwell will score one as well.

2013 Barkman League Draft

Another one in the book, and another paper-champ to be crowned.

In a 10 team league more often than not your going to feel pretty good about your team coming out of the draft.  Anyone reading this that isn't in the draft should note that we re-draw every 2 rounds for picks.  Ex: Ryan had picks 10/11 for the redraw in round 3 he drew pick 1.

Will do a short team by team analysis...

Bob - Finishing last has its advantages.  That advantage for this year is being able to claim Adrian Peterson for your team.

Would ya Bob?

  The dynamic of this draft was that all owners had it in their minds they were waiting on QB.  Taking Rodgers at #20 overall on the surface seems about right but the rest of the owners were set on waiting as evidence by Brees going 2 rounds later.  By taking QB in rd 2 his WR corp suffered with Colston / Shorts / M. Austin leading the way.  I will give Cecil Shorts a ringing endorsement and predict that he will finish top 15 in fantasy production.  David Wilson was a guy I had my eye on if I could get him in the right spot.  Actually I think he was on most members radar after this run in preseason.

Best Pick: Cecil Shorts rd 6 - As mentioned above Shorts top 15.
Risk Pick: Montee Ball rd 5 - Could def pan out if he gets the work, but I like Moreno 4 rounds later.

Overall outlook:  A Peterson/Rodgers team should fair just fine.  I don't know if there is going to be enough production from the WR position on this team to make a big run.


Roy Munson - Mr. Munson did his homework and it showed early as he built a stable of studly Rb's in Martin / Bush / Murray.   I am not as high on Murray, through 2 NFL seasons he has yet to have a 900 yard season or a season with 5+ TD's.  With that said if he can stay healthy for full season he will produce numbers in that offense.  Having him as a RB3 is a nice luxury to have.  Lance Moore certainly isn't a flashy WR but if he can replicate  the 1000 / 6 he had last season that  will do more than satisfy the duties of a WR3.  Throw in a few fantasy HOF's in Manning and Gonzo and this team shaped up.

The best QB to ever play the game...

Best Pick: Mark Ingram rd 9 - Although I am not a big Ingram fan getting the starting running back in a top 5 offense that late is great value.
Risk Pick:  Mikel Leshoure - As good as Joique Bell looked in preseason I would have used him to cuff Bush.  On second thought, I am not going to tell you how to handcuff 'Bush.'

Overall outlook: Steady as they come QB and TE (check).  Stable full of RBs (check).  100 catch WR and 2 guys that play in arguably the 1st and 2nd best passing attacks (check).  If we see 2011 Jordy Nelson numbers Munson might be in for a payday.

Trent -  Winning the previous year + ending up with the 3rd overall pick + selecting a guy that has finished 1st, 2nd, and 4th in fantasy points in his 3 years in the league does not add up.  I can see how it happened this year though. 

Pairing A.J. Green and Fitzgerald up with Foster has this team looking as good as any through 3 picks.  Getting two stud WR's has a cost.  The cost in this case is two young unproven guys vying for the RB2 position.  Mike Vick has a high ceiling this year.  Philly ran an average of 75 plays per game in the preseason which is 11 more than the league average last year.  Sure he will get banged up this year but having Luck in your back pocket won't be much of a set back.

Best Pick: Ben Tate rd 8 - Foster owners must draft Tate in the off chance that Foster goes down.  Foster is obviously a good back but I don't really think there would be a huge drop off if Tate was the 24/7 man there.
Risk Pick: Lacy/Miller - While I do think at least one of these guys will pan out there is some risk involved with banking on a pair of guys with 51 career carries between them.

Overall outlook:  I know what I am getting out of Foster/Tate, AJ Green, and Fitz (now that he has a capable qb.)  The RB2 / Vick / Finley production will decide the fate of this team.

Crab - After not being able to crack the top 5 since entering the league Crabber has went ahead and finished 3rd (2011) and 2nd (2012).  He started his draft out with reacquiring the main piece of his 2012 run in Marshawn Lynch.  The 3rb/3wr method through 6 rounds is a nice way to lay a solid foundation. 

Another year that this dance will piss me off...

While I see low ceilings in the White/Cruz/Wayne trio I also see 3 of the most consistent producers that there is at the position.  Getting his boy Tom Brady in the 7th seems like a bit of a steal.  Pairing a QB/RB tandem together (Brady/Ridley) can have its pitfalls, but with as good as that offense can be I think there will be enough to go around.

Best Pick: Knoshon Moreno - I really wanted to nab this guy up but Crab beat me to the punch.  I am not sure where he is listed on the depth chart but in crunch time I think this will be the guy they have on the field.  Honorable mention: Greg Jennings.
Risk Pick: Kyle Rudolph -  Through two season the red-nosed tight end has only surpassed 60 yards receiving in a grand total of.....2 games.  As random as touchdown catches are (Calvin Jonson scored 5 tds in 2012) Rudolph will need to match the 9 he scored last year or his owners may end up red-faced.

Overall outlook:  I will be interested to see how the Brady / Ridley combo will shake out.  He has nothing to worry about at WR  I would wager a cheese sandwich that White / Cruz / Wayne will combine for 3750yds / 22 tds (+/- 500 yards and 3 tds)  Only time will tell if he can 3pete the top 3.

Me - I normally would go last and say something corny like...saving the best for last, but the truth is I have only finished top half (4th 2011) of the league once since the epic 2008 season.  I have fallen into the trap of going sexy vs going steady.  For example, in round 1 I could have easily picked a guy like Ray Rice who is about as sure of a thing that there is.  Instead  I watched this video one too many times and ended up with...

By going WR in rounds 2-4 I was aware that I was going to be short-handed at RB2.  Using picks 5-7 on RBs I was happy to walk out with the trio of McFadden / Gio Bernard / and Ryan Mathews.  If one of these backs finish in the top 15 that would give me a great shot at making a run.

Best Pick: Matt Ryan round 10 - Waiting on QB was a must this year.  I see no reason why his numbers would decline this year either.  Last year the #1 qb was Drew Brees with 379 points.  Matt Ryan finished 7th at 336.  Quick math tells me that is just over 2.5 points per week.  So to reference an old algorithm that I used years back:
Brees > Ryan
but
Ryan 10th > Brees 4th

Risk Pick: Darren McFadden rd 5 - I am not even going to hope that he plays all 16 games.  I am about 95% sure he will not.  However, what I can hope for is that he goes into 2011 mode which he racked up 770 yards and 5 tds in 6 games before going down with a season ending injury.

Overall outlook:  I pity Danny Amendola when it comes time for team shower.

This has taken too long I am going to cut back a little for the final 5 teams.  In a 10 team league everyone should look pretty good post-draft.

Styer

Best Pick - Golden Tate rd 8 - I really really wanted Tate in at least one league this year.  I do not know if the stats would back me up on this but I feel like he is one of the best in the league after the catch.  I am going to say top 20 WR this year.

Risk Pick - Colin Kaepernick rd 6 - Much safer options on the board at the time of this pick, but with the massive upside he has I can't really fault him.

That's a QB and that wasn't even his best run that game.

Overall outlook: This would be a sick ppr league team.  As is should still be a pretty solid team.  I think we see CJ closer to 2k than 1k this year.

John

Best Pick - Steven Jackson / Quiz Rodgers - Locking up that backfield is a wise move.  Michael Turner was barely breathing last season and still barreled into the end zone 10 times.

Risk Pick - Not so much an individual pick but drafting a 5th WR before a 3rd RB is always going to leave you a little short.  Honorable mention: not having television

Overall outlook: The foundation is nice,  Richardson / SJax are two of the hardest runners in the league but he is a Trent Richardson injury away from being in trouble.

Chad

Best Pick - Jamaal Charles rd 1 - I still am not sure why I passed on him.  Having him for his last 2 healthy seasons I think had something to do with it.  I should not have let that decide it though.  He is my pick to lead the league in yards from scrimmage in 13.' honorable mention: Chris Givens.

Risk Pick - The guys went in the rounds they should have went, but taking a tight end and a QB in the first 5 rounds is going to set you awfully lean somewhere else.  In this case it was WR.

Overall outlook:  I will be interested to see how this strategy pays off.  Between deep-threats Wallace / Gordon / Givens he is going to have some big weeks.  Having the right guys in the line up when the big week hits will be the challenge. Of the 5 guys that took RB/RB I like this pair just barely edging out McCoy / CJ4.24

Ritch

Best Pick - Greg Olsen rd 10 - 2nd most productive tight end over final 6 (or 8?) weeks in 2012.

Risk Pick - I was going to say for drafting 3 RBs over the age of 30.  BUT I just found a new candidate for "oldest young running back."

Bradshaw - feet of a 50 year old / face of a 40 year old / heart of a 27 year old

Overall outlook: I don't like Gore this year.  Nicks is always hurt.  Steve Smith is on the downside.  With that said Pete has done a nice job finishing in the top half of the league 4 years straight (in the money twice).  I do not think he has the personnel to get it done on talent alone so his managerial skills will be put to the test.

Ry

Best Pick - James Jones rd 5 / Eric Decker rd 6 -  Ry was able to take the WR's who scored the most (James Jones 14) and second most (Eric Decker 13) touchdowns in 2012 in rounds 5 and 6.  Those totals will be tough to match but still great value.

Risk Pick - Gronk round 4 - The time was right.  The reports from camp are encouraging as well.  With the Billy Ball handles things who knows what is actually going on.

Rehab is going well

Overall outlook: The foundation has been laid.  I like the Rb's I like the 35 potential tds at WR.  I think this team outcome squarely hinges on whether Stafford has a 2011 or 2012 season and what ends up happening with the Gronk.

There really are no "bad" teams on paper in a 10 man league.  I like some teams better than others.  Just for the sake of making a prediction...

in no particular order
top half
Munson
Trent
Crab
Me
Styer

bottom half no particular order
Ry
Chad
Ritch
John
Bob

Rams

 Was just watching my typical Monday night television programming ie: WWE Monday Night Raw and heard this great quote...

"If you can't feed em--don't breed em"
-Zeb Colter

One more random thing...

 Here is some footage from Bobby Huxta's trip to Lake Raystown...

Vegas Odds: O/U 7.5 wins

I really think this is a team on the up.  I just wish 1/4 of their games weren't against the 49ers and Seahawks.  After glancing over their schedule I see them definitely being favored in the following:
week 1 vs Arizona
week 5 vs Jags
week 9 vs Titans
week 16 vs Bucs

Their other 4 home games are vs:
week 4 vs 49ers
week 8 vs Seahawks
week 12 vs Bears
week 15 vs Saints

Hard to predict what teams will look like that far down the road.  I could see the lines all being fairly tight in those 4 games but Rams will be dogs.

The road schedule isn't easy either:
week 2 @ Falcons
week 3 @Cowboys
week 6 @ Texans
week 7 @ Panthers
week 10 @ Colts
week 13 @ 49ers
week 14 @ Cardinals
week 17 @ Seahawks

Week 14 at Arizona would be the only week I could see them being favored.

At the ABSOLUTE MOST I could see them being favored in 7 games (add Chi/Saints/@Cardinals to the initial list of 4.  That is being very generous and I think 4-5 games would be more realistic.

Even with the brutally tough road schedule I am going to stick with my gut on this team.  I think they are on the rise and will win 8 games this year.

Tavon Austin - Here is a good stat:  Since 2005 (28) receivers have been drafted in the first round.  Exactly 1 receiver has eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark (AJ Green 2011).  It hasn't come any easier in the TD department as there has only been 1 to record 8+ touchdowns (Julio Jones 2011).  While those numbers don't exactly spell good news there is still hope for Tavon.

60/790/6 - That stat-line represents Percy Harvin's rookie season.  He also tacked on another 135 rushing bringing him to 925 total yards.  The Rams have said they are going to use Austin in a variety of ways.  He has already showed his ability as a punt returner and I would expect them to be getting the ball in his hands early and often.  I can't really picture the 170lb frame of Austin taking it between the tackles but I am sure they are going to find ways to get the ball in his hands

As history shows 1st round rookie receivers have not had much success, however; I think Tavon is a slightly different case because of his skill-set.  He is going to get his touches, whether it be quick screens or little flare passes.  If the Rams do decide to give him 2-3 touches a week out of the backfield that will only enhance his fantasy value.  I think the 925 yards that Harvin racked up in his rookie season is a decent ballpark for Tavon.  In mock drafts Tavon is currently the 31st WR being selected.  His upside certainly seems like fair value at that spot.

a laugh / a buy / a sell

Three years from now I might look back at this and laugh about how wrong I was.  However, for the time being I am laughing at something else.

It was a rough home debut for Geno.  Three 1st half interceptions + this gem closed the book on his night as well as any chance to start week 1 of the regular season.


Buy/Sell

Kenbrell Thompkins - Has opened some eyes this preseason and posted an 8-116 stat line in his last game.  If anyone had not heard of Thompkins yet Yahoo! sports writer Brad Evans did his part to make him a household name.  Anytime a player is the feature article on the yahoo news ticker he is no longer a sleeper.  The stars seem to be aligning for Thompkins.  No Brandon Lloyd.  No Hernandez.  No Gronk to start to the year.  No Welker (sorta).
The past few years the most fruitful of the Patriot Wr's have been the slot receiver think Welker--this years Amendola.  Here is a list of the best receiving years going back to 2002 from a Patriot WR who was not the slot WR

2002 - Patten: 61/824/5
2003 - Branch: 57/800/3
2004 - Givens: 56/874/3
2005 - Branch: 78/998/5
2006 - Caldwell: 61/760/4
2007- Moss: 98/1500/23
2008 - Injured
2009 - Moss: 83/1260/13
2010 - Branch: 48/706/5
2011 - Branch: 51/700/5
2012 - Lloyd: 74/911/4


Two of those years are not like the others, but I think we can all agree that a Thompkins/Moss comparison might be a bit much.  Brady has taken plenty of "no name" receivers and have made them contributing members to the team and fantasy relevant.  Looking at the numbers I think you can pencil Thompkins in for 60/800/4 which would have been good enough for just outside the top 30 best fantasy WRs in 2012.  So I am sorry Mr. Evans I am going to sell on Kenbrell Thompkins being the reason I win my fantasy league.

Maurice Jones-Drew - Currently on CBSsports the 3 resident fantasy football experts have MJD ranked as the 17th / 17th / and 15th best RB.  I really don't get this one.  Since taking over the reigns in 2009...
2009: 1765/16
2010: 1641/7 (14 games)
2011: 1980/11

2012 - He was on pace for another big year.  Before the injury in his 6th game he was averaging more ypc than any year in his career at 4.8, had accumulated over 500 yards of offense and had 5 TD's to go with it.

I get that he is coming off an injury and is now ancient at 28 years of age but ranking this guy as low as these experts have his borderline criminal. 

Hey, MJD you hear about your sportsline ranking?

I am buying MJD as a top 10 fantasy back this season.

bengals

As an AJ Green owner the previous 2 seasons I have found myself watching my fair share of Bengal ball.  The Bengals were probably just on the cusp of the top 5 trendiest teams coming into 2013, but now with their exposure on HBO's Hard Knocks they are racing up the board.  NFL.com writer Michael Silver actually picked the Bengals to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl only to lose to the trendiest of all teams (as documented in my March 12th blog) -- the Seattle Seahawks.

Vegas odds: O/U 8.5 (-180)

I would assume that with the -180 that the over has been pounded.  Lets take a look at the schedule.

week 1: @ CHI
week 2: vs PIT
week 3: vs GB
week 4: @ CLE
week 5: vs NE
week 6: @ BUF
week 7: @ DET
week 8: vs NYJ
week 9: @ MIA
week 10: @ BAL
week 11: vs CLE
week 12: BYE
week 13: @ SD
week 14: vs INDY
week 15: @ PIT
week 16:  vs MIN
week 17: vs Ravens

Looks like 10-6 to me.

Things I like
- Back 2 back road trips in week 6 and 7 will feature what I expect to be 2 bottom of the half league teams in Bills and Lions.
- 2 home games to end the year is nice as well
- Home games vs GB / NE 
- Late Bye should be beneficial

Things I don't like
- Even with the soft opponents in week 6/7 they are still on the road 4 out of 5 weeks 6-10.  That week 10 match up @ Baltimore is going to be tough.  Not only will it mark their 4th road game in 5 weeks but they have a history of getting beat down in Baltimore.  Since 2000 they have gone 4-9 at Baltimore and have lost their last 3 trips.  I normally don't like betting against Cincy while being under the same roof as brother Trent but Baltimore -3 will be look pretty strong that week.

Cincy's strong suit this season will be the defense.  Upfront they will be as stout as any team in the league with stud Geno Atkins anchoring the line.

The biggest problem with the defense is the safety position.  Not sure who is going to be the starter but I do know this guy is in contention.

I want to spend a little time on the enigma that is Taylor Mays.  

I remember years ago hearing about a 6 -foot-3 230 pound beast who hailed from USC and had a vertical leap of 41 inches, could bench 225 30 times, and ran a 4.32.  You hear stats like that and then see plays like this and this you expect that man to be a grade-A-badass.

And then this video surfaces...

 That most definitely is not how a bad-ass behaves.  Sure, he acts corny and a little strange in this video but I am just going to assume he went ahead and ran through about 3/4 of that squad over the following month.

So far through the first 3 episodes of Hard Knocks he has spent his time talking about how he loves/misses his girlfriend.  Sure, that is a fine past-time but certainly not a behavior that a badass would demonstrate amongst other grown men.

So which T. Mays is it?

The badass?

I love my girlfriend

Speaking of girlfriends congratulations to Giovani Bernard.

Fantasy Outlook

Giovani Bernard vs BJGE

Data collected from the last 1400 mock drafts on fantasy football calculator is showing Gio going on average 44th overall.  On the other hand incumbent running back BJGE is being selected on average 84th overall.

Bernard is definitely the sexy pick.  He has shown some nice explosion and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.  Two things that BJGE does not posses.  I can go on and on but the bottom line is this...

 Until you see the rookie riding dirty with the team owner BJGE is still the man...especially at the goal-line.  I think both guys will be productive.  I anticipate Bernard to have more total yards.  However, my prediction will be although he is going up to 40 picks later BJGE will outscore Bernard.